Preview and Predictions for the 2016 Zurich Classic of New Orleans
The PGA Tour stays south but moves east about 540 miles this week, heading from Texas to Louisiana for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.
On the heels of Charley Hoffman's Valero Texas Open win, the Californian will lead a brigade of 156 golfers to TPC New Orleans and a track that Justin Rose blitzed last year to the tune of 22 under par. Rose, along with world No. 1 Jason Day and world No. 5 Rickie Fowler, headline the field this week.
Who from the group of top 10 golfers in the world has the best chance this week? Who else could contend? What are the storylines of significance?
For answers to these questions, as well as our predicted winner, read on.
Where to Watch
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Defending Champion
Justin Rose
Where
TPC Louisiana, 7,425 yards, par 72
What
Total Purse: $7,000,000
Winning Share: $1,260,000
FedEx Points to Winner: 500
When
Thursday-Friday: 3-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
Saturday-Sunday: 1-2:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 3-6 p.m. ET (CBS)
Biggest Storylines
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Jason Day is back in action. Whenever the world No. 1 tees it up, especially in a relatively weak field, it’s a notable occurrence. Day will look to make amends for a disappointing weekend performance two weeks ago at the RBC Heritage.
Also notable: Justin Rose, who birdied his final two holes to win last year, is defending his title. According to PGATour.com's Bill Cooney, Rose’s closing 66-hole stretch without a bogey matched the longest streak since the tour began keeping track in 1983.
Key stats this week, per the fantasy golf mavens at GolfStrat: greens in regulation, approaches from greater than 100 yards, approaches from 125-150 yards and total driving.
Let's look at the contenders...
The Favorites
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Jason Day: The world No. 1 arrives at TPC Louisiana after tying for 23rd at the RBC Heritage, thanks to substandard work on the weekend. He finished fourth here last year, his first time back at TPC Louisiana since 2009. Day is third in strokes gained putting, 12th in total strokes gained and 12th in birdies.
Justin Rose: Last year's Zurich Classic winner, Rose hasn't teed it up since finishing tied for 10th at the Masters. In addition to winning the tournament in 2015, Rose recorded top-15 finishes in his three Zurich starts prior to the win. The Englishman is eighth on tour in tee-to-green strokes gained and fourth in scoring average.
Rickie Fowler: Refreshed (or perhaps still hungover) from #SB2K16, Fowler will also be making his first appearance on a golf course since the Masters. He's missed the cut at TPC Louisiana in his last two tries, but his stature as the No. 5 player in the Official World Golf Ranking earns him a "favorites" mention amid a weak field.
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The Dark Horses
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David Toms: The first of a pair of veterans who could make a run at victory, Louisiana native David Toms finished tied for 14th at the RBC Heritage in his most recent start. Toms tied for 15th at TPC Louisiana in 2014, proving that he can still get around the course. And as the premium is more on accuracy than distance and that precision with approach shots is necessary to go low, the 49-year-old Monroe native shouldn't be counted out.
Steve Stricker: Another 49-year-old, Steve Stricker finished inside the top 15 in his two starts prior to missing the cut at the Shell Houston Open. He's finished inside the top 10 in two of his last four appearances at TPC Louisiana. And while he hasn't been good from tee to green this year, the perennial flatstick maestro does lead the tour in strokes gained putting, which is important at a birdie bonanza golf course.
Prediction
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Winner: Daniel Berger
Due for a breakthrough win, Daniel Berger finished tied for fifth at the Shell Houston Open and tied for 10th at the Masters in his two most recent starts. Last year, in his debut at TPC Louisiana, the Florida native didn't shoot worse than 69 en route to a tied-for-sixth finish.
Berger is 73rd on tour in greens in regulation, 35th in total strokes gained, eighth in approaches from 100-125 yards and 67th in total driving. While he's not world-beating in any of these key categories this week, remember that he's going up against a relatively weaker field, making his weighted rankings in these stats better.
With an impressive showing in his Zurich Classic debut last year, and a confidence-infusing 10th-place finish at the Masters in his most recent start, Berger is poised for his maiden victory this week.
Stats via PGATour.com
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