Predicting the Outcome of AC Milan's Final 4 Serie A Games

For AC Milan, the race for European qualification is well and truly on.

As it stands, the Rossoneri sit sixth in the Serie A table, four points ahead of nearest rivals Sassuolo and five clear of Chievo and Lazio.

Milan are six points off Fiorentina in fifth, meaning with four league games left to play, their most realistic objective is merely to hold on to their current position. This would guarantee them a spot in the UEFA Europa League for the 2016-17 season.

Having gone without continental competition for the past two years, a top-six spot would be an important step in the right direction for the club.

For Milan, a minimum of three wins from their remaining Serie A fixtures would be enough to ensure Sassuolo, Chievo and Lazio could not mathematically catch them. But in order for that to happen, they must negotiate some potentially tricky fixtures.

Here, we take a look at the Rossoneri’s remaining four league games, predicting an outcome for each one.

Verona vs. Milan, 25 April

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Verona have spent much of this season at the foot of the Serie A table, and with four games left, they are currently 10 points adrift of safety. This means they must win every single one of their remaining matches to have any chance of avoiding relegation.

It’s a highly unlikely task, one that begins with the visit of Milan on Monday, 25 April.

The last time these two teams met, at the San Siro last December, the match ended in a 1-1 draw. The game provided yet another example of the Rossoneri struggling to break down defensive-minded opponents.

However, since then, Verona have won just three of 18 league fixtures.

Their poor form is good news for Milan. So too is the fact that, with a necessity to win every remaining game in their desperate fight for survival, they will probably opt for a more attacking mindset.

In theory, this should play into the Rossoneri’s hands, with a more open game offering more space and opportunities to get in behind Verona’s vulnerable defence.

Prediction: Milan win

Milan vs. Frosinone, 1 May

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Milan’s penultimate home league game of the season sees them welcome another relegation candidate in Frosinone to the San Siro on Sunday, 1 May.

Roberto Stellone’s side have put up a brave effort in their debut Serie A campaign, and given they are just two points behind Carpi in 17th, there is still hope the Canarini can stay in Italy’s top flight for another year.

However, to achieve that, they will have to quickly forget about their most recent performance: a dispiriting 5-1 defeat away to Chievo.

That game once again highlighted Frosinone’s leaky defence, which was been their major deficiency this season. Indeed, no Serie A team has conceded more than their 66.

Stellone’s 4-4-2 system and attacking style of football is brave, but it only exposes his team’s weakness. Milan exploited this before when winning 4-2 at the Stadio Matusa last December, and they should do the same when the two teams meet again.

Prediction: Milan win

Bologna vs. Milan, 7 May

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Sinisa Mihajlovic never looked glummer throughout his 10-month spell as Milan head coach than he did on 6 January. Following a 1-0 home defeat to Bologna, the Serb trudged off with an air of despair.

It was a frustrating game for the Rossoneri, who were unable to penetrate their opposition’s back line before conceding late on to drop all three points.

Since then, Mihajlovic has gone, and Cristian Brocchi has been appointed as his replacement. This has led to a change in system, with Milan now utilising a 4-3-1-2.

Roberto Donadoni’s Bologna, meanwhile, have gone off the boil of late. They haven’t won since 14 February, and their most recent result was a 6-0 trouncing at the hands of Napoli.

Currently seven points clear of Frosinone, the Rossoblu are unlikely to be drawn into a relegation battle, but they are also unlikely to achieve a top-half Serie A finish. As such, there could be little for them to play for come their clash with Milan at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara on 7 May.

The Rossoneri themselves could well have all but sealed a top-six place, and thus they too might struggle for inspiration going into this game.

In a meeting of two teams capable of cancelling each other out and without real motivation, a draw seems the most likely outcome.

Prediction: Draw

Milan vs. Roma, 15 May

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Luciano Spalletti has reinvigorated Roma since returning to the club as head coach in January. He has led the club to third place in Serie A, from where they are now looking up at Napoli with the ambition of taking second spot.

On the final day of this season, they will travel to the San Siro to face a Milan side who, with a possible seven points from their previous three fixtures, should have sealed a top-six position and a return to European football.

Circumstances aside, Roma have played wonderful football in recent weeks, with their front three of Diego Perotti, Mohamed Salah and former Rossonero Stephan El Shaarawy combining well.

With their movement and pace in attack, as well as the dynamism of Alessandro Florenzi and Radja Nainggolan and the playmaking capability of Miralem Pjanic, they may just have too much for Milan to cope with.

Prediction: Roma win