10 Upsets That Would Ruin the 2016 College Football Season
Upsets are part of college football’s fabric. Sometimes, it’s fun to see a 40-point underdog come out of nowhere and stun a top-tier foe (as Stanford did to Southern California in 2007) or watch an FCS school vanquish a titan of college football (as then-FCS team Appalachian State did at Michigan earlier that season). Upsets are a part of college gridiron life, and they happen on a yearly basis.
At times, however, they can deal a blow to a more meaningful college football season. As exciting as upsets are, Top 10 showdowns and battles for a spot in the College Football Playoff are far more interesting. An untimely upset can steal much of a prime matchup’s meaning. Sure, the games will go on as scheduled, but perhaps they won’t have the same impact if a league title or more is no longer on the line.
Here’s a look at 10 hypothetical upsets that would ruin the 2016 college football season. We spotlighted these games because, if they happen, they’d drain meaning from much bigger, marquee games on the schedule or ruin a talented team’s hopes of challenging for an important goal down the line.
Arkansas over LSU
1 of 10
You can say this for Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema: He knows how to finish strong. Bielema has guided Arkansas to consecutive bowl appearances, and he has done so with a pair of Novembers to remember. The Razorbacks have won five of their last eight November games, including three victories over Top 20 opponents.
That includes a pair of wins over LSU (17-0 in 2014 and 31-14 in 2015).
“There were a lot of Arkansas people smiling ear to ear to get two in a row on LSU,” Bielema said following the 2015 game, per Hunter Paniagua of the Advocate.“Especially with one over here at night. It really represents what we’re all about.”
The Tigers should be one of the nation’s best teams this year, thanks to the presence of Heisman Trophy candidate Leonard Fournette, but Arkansas again sits in a tough spot on LSU’s slate.
A trip to Arkansas comes just seven days after what will be a bruising battle with Alabama in Tiger Stadium. The Razorbacks will have LSU’s attention, but if the Tigers are in contention for a College Football Playoff berth, Arkansas has shown that it has the potential to ruin those dreams in 60 minutes.
Georgia Tech over Clemson
2 of 10
Clemson will enter 2016 as one of the prime favorites to win the College Football Playoff. And why not? The Tigers are coming off a national runner-up finish and return virtually everyone of note on offense, led by third-place finisher in the Heisman Trophy race Deshaun Watson, the first FBS player to pass for 4,000 yards and rush for 1,000 in the same season.
But if Clemson has a kryptonite, it resides in Bobby Dodd Stadium. The Tigers have not won at Georgia Tech since a 39-3 victory in September 2003 and have lost five consecutive games to the Yellow Jackets there since. Two years ago, Clemson suffered a 28-6 defeat to Tech, although it must be noted that Watson was knocked out of the game after suffering a knee injury.
Last year, Clemson routed Tech 43-24 in Clemson, holding quarterback Justin Thomas to three yards on 14 carries. This time, the Yellow Jackets are the Tigers’ ACC road opener, with Clemson visiting for a Thursday night tilt Sept. 22. Another upset would deal a huge blow to Clemson's hopes of another ACC title and CFP berth, forcing it to run the table (including a road game at Florida State) to have any shot at an Atlantic Division title.
Indiana over Michigan
3 of 10
Michigan-Ohio State has been one of college football’s best rivalries for decades, but the recent arrival of Jim Harbaugh and Urban Meyer in Ann Arbor and Columbus, respectively, has added some serious spice. Meyer won a national title with the Buckeyes two years ago, and Harbaugh has the Wolverines on a fast track to the College Football Playoff following a 10-3 debut season in 2015.
Michigan’s trip to Ohio Stadium on Nov. 26 should have all kinds of Big Ten and College Football Playoff implications, assuming both survive the rest of the regular season unscathed. The Wolverines will end the season with two of their last three games on the road, including a tough Nov. 12 trip to an Iowa team that finished the 2015 regular season 12-0.
But a Nov. 19 home date with Indiana could also be troublesome. Last fall, the Hoosiers pushed Michigan to the absolute brink in Bloomington before falling 48-41 in double overtime. Michigan needed a late touchdown just to send the game to OT, and Indiana dropped a potential game-tying touchdown pass in double overtime.
The Hoosiers must replace starting quarterback Nate Sudfeld and 1,200-yard rusher Jordan Howard, but head coach Kevin Wilson’s offense should remain potent. An upset would drain much of the momentum from Michigan-Ohio State the following Saturday.
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Miami over Florida State
4 of 10
Over the last seven years, Clemson and Florida State have made significant strides to elevate the ACC’s football reputation. Since 2009, either Clemson or FSU has represented the ACC Atlantic in the league title game, and together, the teams have won the last five ACC titles. They also have a national title and a national runner-up finish in that span.
Their annual meeting, of course, is a big deal and must-see football, as it has decided the ACC Atlantic winner since 2009. This year’s meeting, on Oct. 29 in Tallahassee, will be no different. Both Clemson and FSU should begin the preseason in the Top 10, if not the Top Five, and there will be plenty of hype surrounding the game.
That is, if both can survive unbeaten. FSU opens the season against Ole Miss in Orlando, Florida, travels to Louisville Sept. 17 and hosts North Carolina Oct. 1. But a trip to Miami Oct. 8 is also intriguing. Florida State owns a six-game winning streak against its Sunshine State rival, but the last two wins have come by a combined nine points.
Under Mark Richt’s watch, the Hurricanes should be improved, and they feature one of the nation’s top quarterbacks in junior Brad Kaaya. If Miami breaks through against FSU, it’d be good for Richt but bad for the ACC’s hopes of putting on a marquee game three weeks later in the Panhandle.
Nebraska over Ohio State
5 of 10
Despite losing nine players to NFL draft early entry, Ohio State should again be a strong contender for the Big Ten title and College Football Playoff this fall. Urban Meyer and his staff have recruited well, and it’ll be just a matter of time before the Buckeyes newcomers find their legs and terrorize college football.
Doing so will require surviving a tough road slate that includes trips to Oklahoma, Penn State and Wisconsin before a difficult November. Everyone will be paying attention to the season-ending stretch against Michigan State and Michigan, but it will mean nothing unless Ohio State survives the first half of the month.
Nov. 5 brings the Buckeyes’ first meeting with Nebraska since a 63-38 victory in 2012. The Cornhuskers finished 6-7 last year but lost five games by five points or less. Senior quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. and a talented receiving corps return, and Armstrong should be more comfortable after throwing 22 touchdowns against 16 interceptions last fall.
Nebraska finished last season 3-1 in its final four games and handed Michigan State its only regular-season defeat. The Huskers are capable of putting a scare into the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe.
Texas A&M over Alabama
6 of 10
Alabama-LSU has become one of the cornerstones of the college football calendar. The SEC West rivals just don’t like each other, and they play similar styles of football. Both favor bruising ground games with a competent passing game mixed in, and both feature nasty defenses. Their meetings (typically in early November) are tinged with significant stakes for the SEC West and the College Football Playoff.
A year ago, then-No. 4 Alabama took control of the SEC West race with a 30-16 win over No. 2 LSU, starting a skid that nearly cost Tigers head coach Les Miles his job. The Tigers have lost five consecutive meetings with Alabama dating back to the 2012 BCS National Championship, and they’ll be hungry for revenge this November.
Alabama has to take care of business, too, and an Oct. 22 home date with Texas A&M could be problematic. The Tide will be coming off back-to-back road games at Arkansas and Tennessee. Senior quarterback Trevor Knight will pilot the A&M offense. Last time Alabama saw him, Knight ripped the Tide defense for 348 yards and four touchdowns, leading Oklahoma to victory in the 2014 Sugar Bowl.
Knight is trying to end his career on a high note, and another strong effort against Alabama could do that while also torpedoing the Tide’s hopes of another national title.
Texas over Baylor
7 of 10
This season, Baylor hopes to finish the drill. The Bears have flirted with College Football Playoff berths in each of the last two seasons, going a combined 20-4 in that span. Last fall, injuries to quarterbacks Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham resulted in a 1-3 finish to the regular season, which ended Baylor's hopes of a CFP berth.
The 2016 schedule is set up for Baylor to make another strong run. The Bears should be favored in at least their first seven games before a brutal November that features a home game against TCU, a trip to Oklahoma, a visit from Kansas State, a neutral-site game against Texas Tech and a season finale at West Virginia.
With a healthy Russell at quarterback and KD Cannon taking over lead wideout duties, the offense should hum again. However, an Oct. 29 trip to Texas is problematic. Last November, the Longhorns surprised the Bears, down to their fourth-string quarterback, with a 23-17 upset to end the regular season.
Under new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert, the Texas offense should be much improved with a faster tempo. The Longhorns have the potential to surprise Baylor again and dampen a potentially huge November.
Virginia Tech over Notre Dame
8 of 10
Notre Dame-USC is always one of the highlights of the college football calendar, and 2016 should be no different. The Fighting Irish and Trojans are set to finish their regular-season slates Nov. 26 in Los Angeles. With a little luck, something more than bragging rights will be on the line.
Although Notre Dame must settle on a quarterback between DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire, Brian Kelly’s group brings back a solid core from 2015’s 10-3 team. The same is true for USC and new head coach Clay Helton, who rallied the Trojans to a Pac-12 South title as interim head coach last fall.
It’s not out of the question for College Football Playoff positioning to be in the mix in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. But first, Notre Dame must survive a Nov. 19 meeting with Virginia Tech. The Hokies will have settled on a starting quarterback by then, and they’ll have nearly a full season’s experience in Justin Fuente’s uptempo offense.
Fast-paced systems gave Notre Dame trouble last fall in losses to Clemson and Ohio State. It could happen again here, which would tarnish the Thanksgiving weekend trip to take on the Trojans.
Washington State over Stanford
9 of 10
Over the past four years, Notre Dame-Stanford has developed into one of college football’s tightest rivalries. Each of the last four meetings between the Fighting Irish and Cardinal has been decided by a touchdown or less, and each of the last two was decided by a field-goal margin. Last fall, Stanford’s final-play field goal clinched a wild 38-36 win over the Irish in Palo Alto.
This season, Stanford visits Notre Dame on Oct. 15 in a game that should have midseason College Football Playoff implications. However, the Cardinal must survive a visit from Washington State on Oct. 8.
Last fall, the Cardinal were pushed to the limit by the Cougars before emerging with a 30-28 victory. Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense will test secondaries across the Pac-12, including Stanford’s. A Wazzu upset would take some shine off a prime showdown with the Irish.
West Virginia over Oklahoma
10 of 10
Oklahoma enjoyed a strong bounce-back season in 2015. Coming off an 8-5 record in 2014, the Sooners and head coach Bob Stoops rode the Air Raid offense to new heights, winning the Big 12 and making the College Football Playoff.
With pass-happy quarterback Baker Mayfield and 14 starters returning, OU should again be a Big 12 and playoff contender. Late-season home games against Baylor and Oklahoma State will be fun to watch for fans who love offensive, high-powered football.
But sandwiched in between is a trap game at West Virginia Nov. 19. Like Oklahoma, West Virginia also runs the Air Raid offense. While the Mountaineers are not likely a playoff contender, the trip to Morgantown could be deadly to Oklahoma’s hopes of defending its Big 12 title, and a loss would remove some buzz from the Dec. 3 Bedlam finale against the Cowboys.
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