Why Manchester City Can Beat Real Madrid and Progress to Champions League Final

Manchester City’s first-ever UEFA Champions League semi-final will see them take on Real Madrid over two legs.

City will play the first leg at home on April 26 before the second leg at the Santiago Bernabeu on May 4.

It’s a particularly poignant draw for Manuel Pellegrini, who managed Los Blancos for one season before being unceremoniously sacked, despite finishing with a then club-record points tally.

He spent the 2009-10 season in charge of the La Liga giants, finishing second with 96 points and scoring 102 goals.

But for Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona team, arguably the greatest club side of all time, he would have won the title in style. Pellegrini’s Madrid played an open, attractive brand of football. He left, but his reputation had been enhanced.

FABRICE COFFRINI/Getty Images

It was a tough, some would say undeserved, sacking, but he now has a chance to exact some revenge and write another chapter of City history in the process.

He gave a typically dignified response when asked about going back to his old club, saying: "There is no greater motivation [because I used to manage them]. Always the motivation to play the semi-final is unbelievable.

"It is a difficult draw. It doesn’t matter which team we played—the chances are the same. There was no preference for opponent."

The Champions League represents Pellegrini’s last chance to add to his trophy haul at the Etihad Stadium, with the Premier League now surely out of reach and Guardiola set to take over from the Chilean on July 1.

If he can win Europe’s elite club competition, he will leave as arguably the club’s most successful manager, drawing level with Joe Mercer on four major trophies.

Real pose a significant hurdle, though. In Cristiano Ronaldo, they have a match-winner only Barcelona, with Lionel Messi, can match. In the quarter-finals, 2-0 down from the first leg in Germany, Ronaldo’s hat-trick saw them defeat Wolfsburg, 3-2, on aggregate and move into the last four. It wasn’t an isolated example of his genius.

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Hat-trick hero @Cristiano Ronaldo: "It was a perfect night."
Watch the #UCL highlights: https://t.co/CXDhcirzgphttps://t.co/d0iD4dHD6c

— Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) April 12, 2016"

His Champions League record is formidable and unparalleled. He has 16 goals in this season’s competition—one short of the record set by himself. That’s at least eight more goals than any other player in the Champions League this season.

VI-Images/Getty Images

He has scored 40 goals in 35 Champions League games at the Bernabeu, including 34 goals in 36 Champions League knockout matches for Real Madrid. 

And, of course, Real are far more than one player. They have a host of world-class stars. On paper, City are huge underdogs.

"

Cristiano Ronaldo added another victim to his rather large Champions League hit-list. 🎯 pic.twitter.com/7x4QcKpBfq

— Bleacher Report UK (@br_uk) April 12, 2016"

But knockout competitions can be unpredictable. Liverpool in 2005 and Chelsea in 2008 are proof the best side doesn’t always win. City have match-winners, and if they defend as well and work as hard as they did over the two legs against Paris Saint-Germain, anything could happen.

The return of Kevin De Bruyne has galvanised City, and Real have defensive issues. There’s an argument to suggest that, of the three opponents City could have be drawn against, they stand the best chance against Zinedine Zidane’s side.

Atletico Madrid are unfathomably organised, and Bayern Munich play with an intensity and discipline that is difficult to combat.

City are the weakest side left in the competition, and therefore, no draw was going to be particularly appealing, but of the three, it is perhaps this one that gives them most hope.

Rob Pollard is Bleacher Report's lead Manchester City correspondent and will be following the club from a Manchester base throughout the 2015/16 season. All quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow him on Twitter @RobPollard.