UFC Fight Night 86 Predictions: Main Card Staff Picks
UFC Fight Night 86 will air on Sunday, April 10. The event kicks off at 10:30 a.m. ET, making the main card (2 p.m. ET) a rare weekend matinee. Another rarity: The Octagon travels to Croatia for the first time in UFC history.
The event features a standard pack of 13 fights, six of those going on the main card. The afternoon's headliner is a heavyweight contest between former champion Junior dos Santos and rising challenger Ben Rothwell. That bout is just one of three heavyweight contests on the main card.
The full main card looks like this:
- Ben Rothwell vs. Junior dos Santos
- Derrick Lewis vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
- Francis Ngannou vs. Curtis Blaydes
- Timothy Johnson vs. Marcin Tybura
- Igor Pokrajac vs. Jan Blachowicz
- Maryna Moroz vs. Cristina Stanciu
Though, imminent title implications are light, the Fight Night 86 main card features a bevy of young talent and competitive matchups to add a dash of excitement to your Sunday afternoon.
In preparation of the event, the Bleacher Report MMA picks team is here to supply you with our thoughts on each main-card matchup. Back as usual, it's Scott "Home Run" Harris, Slugging Sydnie Jones, Nathan "Sacrifice Bunt" McCarter, Steven "The Slider" Rondina and Craig "Crash" Amos.
Maryna Moroz vs. Cristina Stanciu
1 of 6
Nathan McCarter
Moroz stunned a lot of folks in her UFC debut by upsetting Joanne Calderwood, and then she was bested by Valerie Letourneau in a competitive fight. Now, she welcomes Stanciu to the Octagon.
Stanciu is going to be an interesting fighter to watch develop in the UFC. She's young, quick and strong. Her stand-up isn't polished, but she has decent head movement and throws wickedly hard. The biggest question is whether that power will stick with her as she has typically fought much higher than 115 pounds. The weight cut could be a factor.
Moroz has more experience against tougher competition and will have a good height/reach advantage. I like her to take the fight by way of a decision, but she'll need to be mindful of getting clocked by a fastball from Stanciu.
Moroz, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Moroz is one heck of a fun fighter. Stanciu, well, she's an unknown quantity. She balances the equation here, but I'd be surprised if she could stand up to Moroz's aggressive striking attack.
Moroz, TKO, Rd. 2
Sydnie Jones
I think Stanciu's previous fights at flyweight will actually be a boon here; while this may be more weight than she's used to cutting, it shouldn't be all that hard on her, and being accustomed to facing heavier opponents is going to work well for her. Paired with her crazy aggression and powerful striking, I'm picking the newcomer here. Moroz is not a stranger to someone coming at her hard and fast, and she has the height advantage, but Stanciu is like a berserker in there.
Stanciu, TKO, Rd. 3
Craig Amos
Both women sport impressive records, but Moroz has posted promising results against solid UFC competition. A win over Joanne Calderwood and a competitive effort against Valerie Letourneau persuade me to side with her in this one.
Moroz, submission, Rd. 2
Steven Rondina
There's reason to get excited about how good Stanciu might be, but there's more reason to be excited about how good Moroz actually is right now. Moroz has tools standing and on the mat, and that should enable her to win this fairly handily.
Moroz, unanimous decision
Jan Blachowicz vs. Igor Pokrajac
2 of 6
Nathan McCarter
Pokrajac's return to the UFC is probably not going to end up with much celebration. This screams like a matchmaking decision to get Blachowicz back in the win column.
And that's what I think happens. Emphatically. Blachowicz will probably get himself a bonus check.
Blachowicz, TKO, Rd. 1
Scott Harris
Blachowicz is a big favorite here thanks to his power striking. But I'm sounding the upset alarms on this one. Pokrajac is cagey and will stay clear of Blachowicz's clinching and punching. He'll wear Blachowicz down and edge past him on points at the finish line.
Pokrajac, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
So, Pokrajac has racked up three wins since his last stint in the UFC, which came to an end after a run of definitive losses. I'm not convinced he's improved so drastically over the last 16 months that his return to the UFC will go any better than his last fight for the promotion.
Blachowicz, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
Everyone has cooled on Blachowicz since his impressive UFC debut, but Pokrajac is almost a gimme for him. Sometimes ol' Scott Harris gets a little antsy with those alarm bells of his.
Blachowicz, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
Pokrajac has bounced back from his UFC release with three-straight wins. Unfortunately, his opponents have a combined record of 7-8. He hasn't really shown himself to be better than the man that lost to Ryan Jimmo in 2013, and while Blachowicz has struggled mightily of late, he's probably good enough to beat the likes of him.
Blachowicz, submission Rd. 2
Timothy Johnson vs. Marcin Tybura
3 of 6
Nathan McCarter
I can't say I'm eagerly anticipating this fight, but I don't think it will be exceptionally poor. Timothy Johnson has one of the best mustaches in the game today, but I'm going to pick the Polish fighter making his debut.
Tybura will get the fight to the canvas to lock up a submission.
Tybura, submission, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
I'm like you. I love Johnson's mustache. It won't be enough against Tybura, a top heavyweight prospect with the unsexy but highly effective game, particularly when the action hits the mat.
Tybura, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
I don't care about mustaches. Actually, that's not true; I dislike them unless they're part of a full beard. So no props from me on that. I'm picking Tybura, but it's not out of mustache spite. His performance in M-1 has sold me, even if Johnson did hold his own against Jared Rosholt.
Tybura, submission, Rd. 3
Craig Amos
I am of the belief that this won't be a blowout but that Tybura has an edge on the mat. That's why I'm going with the group here. Oh, and obligatory mustache comment.
Tybura, submission, Rd. 2
Steven Rondina
Tybura was the toast of the European circuit for a good, long while. I think his success there can translate to the UFC.
Tybura, submission, Rd. 3
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Francis Ngannou vs. Curtis Blaydes
4 of 6
Nathan McCarter
Razor Blaydes is instantly one of the best nicknames in the UFC, and Ngannou could be a rising star. I really like this fight.
I was there in Orlando to watch Ngannou make his debut, and from the weigh-in alone, I was taken aback at this physical specimen. And then I saw him brutally oust Luis Henrique. After that performance, I felt like the UFC would bring him along a little slowly so that he could be a fresh face in the heavyweight division people wanted to see.
Bringing in a relative unknown for him to face seems to follow that line of thinking, and as such, I'll take Ngannou by another big KO.
Ngannou, knockout, Rd. 1
Scott Harris
This is an interesting fight, and just one of several on the evening to feature some promising prospects. Blaydes has elite-level wrestling, and that will be the difference against a relatively green competitor in Ngannou.
Blaydes, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
Blaydes is making his UFC debut, while this is just Ngannou's second fight in it. Ngannou's debut was impressive, but his wrestling is no match for Blaydes, who is a decorated high school and college wrestler and All-American. Ngannou has some submission wins but was taken down easily in his UFC debut. If that's a weakness for him, then Blaydes should be able to stymie him—if he doesn't finish him first.
Blaydes, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
As Scott and Syd mentioned, this one will be determined by Blaydes' wrestling. He'll use takedowns and control to pile up points and earn the W in his UFC debut.
Blaydes, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
Scott is overselling Blaydes a bit by saying he has "elite" level wrestling. When it comes to resumes, NJCAA champion is a nice feather to have in one's cap (just ask Jon Jones), but it isn't all that high up on the totem pole compared to all the NCAA Division I All-Americans and USA Wrestling alums in the sport today. None the less, this is a guy with a wrestling background against a similarly experienced guy that doesn't have a wrestling background. You know the drill with that.
Blaydes, unanimous decision
Derrick Lewis vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
5 of 6
Nathan McCarter
The Black Beast is the betting favorite in this fight, and I find that to be surprising. He is a very violent individual in the cage, but he has obvious grappling and cardio holes in his game. That is something Gonzaga can exploit.
If Lewis clips Gonzaga, then it's over. He is a powerhouse. But I'm taking the longtime vet here. Lewis has only finished three of his opponents inside the first round, and none of them are at Gonzaga's level. Expect the Brazilian to grind on Lewis before finishing him on the mat in the second.
Gonzaga, submission, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
Just when I think things can't get more heavyweighty, here come Derrick Lewis and Gabriel Gonzaga. Lewis has incredible power not just in his fists, but in the rest of his body. Gonzaga, for all his wily veteran-ness, won't be able to hang.
Lewis, knockout, Rd. 2
Sydnie Jones
Lewis' record in the UFC is 5-2, but his victories are over fighters who didn't go far or haven't accomplished much as yet in the UFC. When faced with Matt Mitrione and Shawn Jordan—good, but not total killers—he got finished in fairly short order. Gonzaga is almost certainly in the twilight of his career and probably has been for awhile, but he has enough left in the tank that, paired with his experience, he'll finish Lewis.
Gonzaga, knockout, Rd. 1
Craig Amos
By this point I instinctively lean toward a Gonzaga knockout loss whenever I begin assessing his chances. That chin of his is worrisome, especially when faced by a fighter with power. But Lewis has relied on ground and pound to end his fights lately, and if he takes Gonzaga to the mat, then he'll not be long for the fight.
Gonzaga, submission, Rd. 2
Steven Rondina
Gonzaga's spent. Straight up. Lewis will either end his UFC career or retire him outright.
Lewis, TKO, Rd. 1
Ben Rothwell vs. Junior Dos Santos
6 of 6
Nathan McCarter
I broke this fight down earlier in the week, and I'm siding with the former champion.
Sure, he has not been the same since Cain Velasquez beat the soul out of him, but this is a stylistic matchup that really favors him. Rothwell will stand and trade, and JDS' wide stance and jab should keep him on the outside. If dos Santos fights smart, then he should win this going away.
Knowing his back is against the wall, I don't think JDS will take many chances. A TKO will come, but late.
dos Santos, TKO, Rd. 4
Scott Harris
I realized recently that I really, really don't want to watch dos Santos fight anymore. He has typically relied on a strong chin and some quick feet to keep him out of trouble, and neither are in strong evidence these days. Rothwell will rock him once or twice and wrap up Junior's still-sharp boxing game with the clinch.
Rothwell, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
Rothwell has been surprising people lately; his guillotine over catch-wrestling expert Josh Barnett was unexpected and impressive. He's been around forever and may be experiencing a late-career renaissance, but I don't think he has the chops to best dos Santos. Cigano has had a checkered run in his last five, going 2-3; however, two of his three losses were to Velasquez, and the other was to Alistair Overeem. Tough, very high-level guys. Rothwell doesn't seem like the next person dos Santos loses to.
dos Santos, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
I always pick against Rothwell. I just never learn. It seems Scott Harris is the only one of us who does. For some reason though, I anticipate that dos Santos will figure Rothwell out and land the shots he needs to end the bout. Stupid stubborn Craig.
dos Santos, TKO, Rd. 2
Steven Rondina
I think many (not actually you fine folks, but the internet in general) have gone a bit nuts with JDS' demise. The JDS of 2011 is indeed gone and Velasquez is largely responsible. Still, JDS was chinned by Overeem in his last fight and didn't go all the way out, and his actual hand speed and accuracy remains on point. I'll take him here, and I'll say he manages to out-point Rothwell en-route to the judges' scorecards.
dos Santos, unanimous decision
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