The Complete Guide to UFC on Fox 19: Evans vs. Teixeira
The UFC makes its way to Tampa, Florida, on Saturday night with a strong offering on Fox.
Khabib Nurmagomedov was originally scheduled to headline the event against Tony Ferguson, but a serious injury to Ferguson resulted in veteran light heavyweights Glover Teixeira and Rashad Evans moving into the five-round main event.
This is still a good fight, though it lacks the urgency of the original headliner between Nurmagomedov and Ferguson. Evans badly needs a win to stay at the top of the division, while Teixeira is trying to state his case for one more shot at the division's elite.
As part of the co-main event, Lyoto Machida was also scheduled to take on Dan Henderson at middleweight in a rematch of a 2013 bout contested at 205 pounds. However, on Wednesday the UFC announced that Machida had tested positive for a banned substance and subsequently been removed from the card. The statement also said Henderson "will be re-booked for a new bout in the near future."
Thankfully, Nurmagomedov will still be on the card. He'll fight newcomer Darrell Horcher in what amounts to a tuneup fight after two years on the shelf battling injuries.
Perhaps the best fight pits Tecia Torres against Rose Namajunas in what probably amounts to a top-contender bout at 115 pounds. The two first met in 2013 in a fantastic back-and-forth scrap that Torres won, and both have grown substantially since then. It should be a barnburner.
The preliminary card is stacked with well-matched fights. In the Fox Sports 1 headliner, Beneil Dariush and Michael Chiesa meet in a fantastic matchup of rising lightweights. Court McGee and Santiago Ponzinibbio will also throw down in an excellent welterweight donnybrook on FS1.
John Dodson returns to bantamweight to headline the Fight Pass portion of the card against Manny Gamburyan. Also, keep an eye on the welterweight matchup between prospects Michael Graves and Randy Brown, which could steal the show.
Let's take a look at each UFC on Fox 19 matchup.
The Fight Pass Prelims
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Welterweights
Omari Akhmedov (15-3; 3-2 UFC) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (14-5; 0-1 UFC)
Brazil meets Russia as a pair of talented welterweights clash in the evening's opener. Both fighters probably need a win here to remain in the UFC, as Sergio Moraes knocked out Akhmedov in December and Dos Santos fell to Nicolas Dalby in his debut last May.
Akhmedov is an offensively focused fighter. He has big power in his looping punching combinations and crushing low kicks to go along with a strong takedown game, but he's not hard to hit and has suspect takedown defense.
Dos Santos likes to strike, and he has the power and combination punching arsenal to make opponents pay on the inside. He's great on top but lacks a strong wrestling game.
Prediction: This is a tough fight to call. Both are powerful punchers who like to bang it out on the feet, but Akhmedov is a better takedown artist, and that should be the difference. The Russian takes a decision.
Middleweights
Cezar Ferreira (9-5; 4-3 UFC) vs. Oluwale Bamgbose (6-1; 1-1 UFC)
Caio Magalhaes pulled out at the last minute with an injury, and promising prospect Bamgbose steps up on late notice against The Ultimate Fighter Brazil winner Ferreira.
It's a do-or-die situation for the Brazilian, who has lost three of his last four by knockout. Meanwhile, Bamgbose rebounded from a loss to Uriah Hall in his debut by knocking out Daniel Sarafian in February.
Bamgbose is a talented striker with freakish speed, power and athleticism. He uses a tricky rhythm and mixes up potent punching combinations and kicks from both stances. He's still a novice grappler, however, and his takedown defense hasn't been seriously tested.
From a skills perspective, Ferreira is a fine fighter. The southpaw has a slick and powerful striking game, technical and well-timed takedowns, and a dangerous grappling arsenal on the mat. However, he has serious trouble taking a punch, and this makes him gun-shy.
Prediction: There are two likely outcomes here. In the first, Bamgbose knocks out a tentative Ferreira early. In the second, Ferreira works takedowns and either controls or more likely finishes Bamgbose on the mat. The first seems likelier, and the pick is Bamgbose by knockout in the first round.
Welterweights
Randy Brown (7-0; 1-0 UFC) vs. Michael Graves (5-0; 1-0 UFC)
New York's Brown, one of the finds from Dana White's Looking for a Fight Web series, meets American Top Team product and The Ultimate Fighter 21 veteran Graves. Brown debuted with a challenging decision win over Matt Dwyer in January, while Graves defeated Vicente Luque last July.
The winner will deserve to be considered a true up-and-comer in one of the UFC's deepest divisions.
Brown is enormous for the division at 6'3". The striker uses his height well with a long jab and rangy side and front kicks, but he also carries serious power in hard power-punching combinations.
A strong double-collar tie and vicious knees in the clinch add some variety, and while he hasn't been seriously tested, he appears to be a competent wrestler and grappler.
Graves is flying under the radar, but he's a gifted athlete with great speed and explosiveness. His skills are an interesting mixture of powerful wrestling—particularly in the clinch—and flashy striking. He also has a great ability to mix his skill sets together in transitions.
He could stand to throw more on the feet and isn't a controlling grappler, though.
Prediction: This is a tough fight to call, as both fighters are exciting talents. Graves is the superior wrestler, but he'll struggle to close the distance against the rangy Brown, and this should be competitive in the clinch. It wouldn't be surprising if Graves won, but it seems likelier that Brown takes a tight decision.
Bantamweights
John Dodson (18-7; 6-2 UFC) vs. Manny Gamburyan (18-9, 1 N/C; 6-6, 1 N/C UFC)
Two-time flyweight title challenger Dodson returns to 135 pounds to face longtime veteran Gamburyan in the Fight Pass headliner.
Dodson has only lost to Demetrious Johnson in the UFC, and prior to his second defeat in September, he had run off three consecutive wins. Gamburyan has won both of his fights at bantamweight since moving down, most recently taking a decision from Scott Jorgensen last July.
Dodson is a dynamic striker. Power and blazing speed are his hallmarks, and the southpaw likes to leap in from range with potent single punches, kicks and flying knees. Outstanding defensive wrestling generally keeps him standing. He barely throws any volume, however, and can sometimes give away rounds while looking for the knockout.
Gamburyan is a well-rounded veteran. Technical clinch and shot takedowns are his bread and butter, and he does good work from top position with strikes, control and the occasional submission. He's a competent striker as well.
Prediction: The move up in weight should accentuate Dodson's speed advantage, though whether he'll carry his power against bigger, stronger opponents is an open question. Gamburyan probably won't be able to take him down and doesn't have the tools to compete on the feet, so Dodson wins a decision.
The Fox Sports 1 Prelims
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Lightweights
Islam Makhachev (12-1; 1-1 UFC) vs. Drew Dober (16-7, 1 N/C; 2-3, 1 N/C UFC)
Blue-chip Dagestani prospect Makhachev looks to rebound from the first loss of his career against American journeyman Dober.
Makhachev, a lifelong training partner of Nurmagomedov, debuted with a dominant win over Leo Kuntz but ate a big punch from Adriano Martins last October. Dober has been up and down in his time in the UFC, and he had the best performance of his career against Scott Holtzman in January.
Makhachev is a serious talent. The southpaw throws nice combinations on the feet and has a sharp kicking game, but he does his best work in the clinch. His chains of trips and throws are elite, and he has a nose for the submission on the mat.
Dober is also a southpaw and does his best work on the feet with a high-output but low-power striking arsenal of punching combinations and kicks. He has strong defensive wrestling skills and has added competent shot takedowns in his last several fights.
Prediction: This is the Dagestani's fight to lose. That doesn't mean it will be easy. Dober has the takedown defense to make this interesting on the feet, but Makhachev's clinch takedowns are on another level. He takes a decision and might finish on the mat.
Welterweights
Court McGee (18-4; 6-3 UFC) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (22-3; 3-2 UFC)
This should be a barnburner between two aggressive welterweights. The Ultimate Fighter 10 winner McGee returned from a two-year layoff to defeat Marcio Alexandre in December, while Ponzinibbio knocked out Andreas Stahl that same month.
Neither fighter is likely to contend for a title, but they're exciting action fighters and solid gatekeepers in a stacked division.
Ponzinibbio is all aggression. He likes to pressure his opponent toward the fence behind a sharp jab and hard low kicks and then unload powerful punching combinations. He's a decent defensive wrestler and seems to be improving on that front.
McGee is also an aggressive striker. He doesn't throw with much power, but he piles up volume with a steady diet of jabs and snapping kicks. Competent wrestling adds another dimension, and he's solid from top position.
Prediction: This is a close fight, but Ponzinibbio's power and technically sound pressure would seem to give him an edge. If he gasses late, all bets are off, but he should pile up damage beforehand. Ponzinibbio takes a decision in a strong contender for Fight of the Night honors.
Women's Bantamweights
Bethe Correia (9-1; 3-1 UFC) vs. Raquel Pennington (6-6; 3-2 UFC)
Former title challenger Correia returns to action against Pennington in a solid scrap at 135 pounds.
Prior to her 34-second loss to Ronda Rousey last August, Correia had won three in a row. Pennington's 6-6 record is deceptive. In the UFC, she lost close decisions to Jessica Andrade and Holly Holm, and she avenged the loss to Andrade in style last September.
Correia is mostly a striker with a yen for head-body punching combinations and the occasional kick. Her takedown defense is solid, and she's a surprising counterpuncher. She's slow of hand and foot, though, and isn't much of a power threat.
Pennington is well-rounded and particularly good in the clinch, where her sharp knees and takedowns are a real threat.
Prediction: Pennington has more diverse skills and is more dynamic. She takes a decision.
Lightweights
Beneil Dariush (12-1; 6-1 UFC) vs. Michael Chiesa (13-2; 6-2 UFC)
This is a great matchup of rising lightweights.
Chiesa won the live season of The Ultimate Fighter back in 2012 and has steadily improved while building an impressive record. He has won two in a row since a loss to Joe Lauzon, taking a decision from Mitch Clarke and then submitting Jim Miller. Dariush has won five in a row, controversially defeating Michael Johnson in August after winning a decision over Miller in April.
The winner will be set up nicely for an elite opponent and potentially a title shot before too long.
Chiesa, a native of Washington state, is a tricky and dangerous fighter. The 6'1" southpaw has great height and reach for the division, and he puts it to good use with long kicks and straight punches. He's surprisingly proficient in the clinch, where his leverage leads to strong trips and throws.
On the mat, he's an expert at getting to the back and finishing with the rear-naked choke.
Dariush began his career as a grappler, but he has turned into a proficient southpaw striker as well. He's aggressive and throws a vicious left kick, but he does his best work on the mat, where the elite black belt has smooth passes and uses his ground strikes to open up his lethal submission repertoire.
Prediction: This is a close fight, but Dariush should have small edges everywhere except the clinch. He's a slightly more polished striker, as technical a wrestler with shot takedowns and much sounder overall on the mat. If they spend enough time on the ground, Chiesa will make a mistake, and Dariush will catch him. Dariush finishes with a submission in the second round.
Cub Swanson vs. Hacran Dias
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Featherweights
Cub Swanson (21-7; 6-3 UFC) vs. Hacran Dias (23-3-1; 3-2 UFC)
The veteran Swanson was once on the cusp of a title shot following a six-fight winning streak, but consecutive one-sided losses to Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway have him fighting just to remain an elite featherweight. He draws Brazil's Dias, a talented fighter who has never quite put it all together. The Brazilian has won two in a row over Darren Elkins and Levan Makashvili.
Dias is good at everything but not spectacular anywhere. Crushing low kicks and smooth punching combinations are his bread and butter on the feet, but he doesn't work fast. Wrestling and top control are the best parts of his game, and he's suffocating if he can get his hands on his opponent.
Striking is Swanson's wheelhouse. He's creative, powerful and fast, and at his best he works behind a sharp jab while throwing vicious head-body combinations and punishing kicks. Slick throws in the clinch add another dimension. He has struggled with output, though, and his takedown defense has sometimes been suspect.
Betting Odds
Swanson -123, Dias +103
Prediction
This depends entirely on where Swanson is as a fighter after his recent pair of losses. If he returns to form, the slow-paced Dias should give him time to work at range, where Swanson will pick him apart. If he's gun-shy, however, Dias will work him over in the clinch and on the mat. The former seems marginally more likely, so the pick is Swanson by decision.
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Rose Namajunas vs. Tecia Torres
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Strawweights
Rose Namajunas (4-2; 2-1 UFC) vs. Tecia Torres (7-0; 3-0 UFC)
Two of the most talented young strawweights in the UFC meet when former title challenger Namajunas takes on American Top Team's Torres, who defeated Thug Rose in Invicta FC nearly three years ago.
Both have grown since their first meeting. That was the first defeat of Namajunas' career, and she followed it up with a tough loss to Carla Esparza at The Ultimate Fighter 20 Finale. She has finished both of her wins since then, however, submitting Angela Hill and dominating the hyped Paige VanZant.
Torres didn't perform as well as Namajunas on TUF but has since gone 3-0 inside the Octagon, most recently defeating late replacement Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger in December.
The winner will officially be the next big thing at 115 pounds and will likely face the victor of the upcoming title fight between Claudia Gadelha and champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
Namajunas is an extraordinary athlete. She's explosive and packs serious power in her strikes but is light on her feet and seems to glide through the space of the cage with an innate sense of distance. Her last two fights have seen her temper her berserker aggression, and it seems that the loss to Esparza taught her a valuable lesson about pacing herself and taking what's there.
Along those lines, Namajunas has rededicated herself to long, straight punches. She probes and establishes distance with a crisp, face-breaking jab and then follows with a vicious straight right. Her movement, footwork and command of angles are efficient and sharp, and her timing is excellent.
Defensive wrestling was Namajunas' Achilles' heel against Esparza, and she seems to have shored that weakness up, though we won't know until we see it tested again. Her clinch takedowns, a series of trips and throws, are technical and well-timed.
As good as she is on the feet, grappling is Namajunas' wheelhouse. She's a monster on top, with a brutal, high-energy ground striking game that opens up smooth, technical passes. Opponents always have to worry about her nose for the submission, and she's much better now at being patient and waiting for her openings. Getting to the back both from steady passing and in transitions is her specialty.
Despite her lack of height—she stands only 5'1"—Torres is the quintessential outside fighter, and she fights long on the feet. Side and round kicks establish her preferred long range, and she then leaps in with blitzing punching combinations that she whirls to the head and body. Volume and output are real strengths.
Great speed and athleticism allow Torres to play this in-and-out game despite her height and reach issues. She uses shifting punches to switch from once stance to another as she moves forward, which allows her to cover distance even more quickly.
Torres complements her effective striking game with strong wrestling. She has never been taken down in the UFC and has a nice series of shot takedowns, but she doesn't set them up particularly well and often shoots from too far away. Her trips and throws in the clinch are much more effective.
Grappling is the weakest part of Torres' game. She's decent on top and knows how to control, but she isn't much of a threat to pass and has no submission game to speak of. Her ground striking can be dangerous, though she could stand to open up more.
Betting Odds
Namajunas -230, Torres +190
Prediction
Despite the outcome of their first fight, Namajunas is the substantial favorite here. She has looked like a buzz saw in her last two outings, while Torres has been a less dynamic but still dominant presence.
This isn't an easy matchup for Thug Rose. Torres can play the same kind of rangy striking game that Namajunas likes while matching or exceeding her volume, and her strong wrestling will make it difficult for Namajunas to work takedowns. If it does go to the mat, Torres' conservative approach on top could spell difficulty for the aggressive Namajunas.
Still, Namajunas should take this. Her height and reach advantage should allow her to stick Torres on the end of her punches, and she's an even more dangerous grappler than she was back in 2013. She has also improved wrestling, and that should be the difference. Namajunas takes a competitive decision.
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Darrell Horcher
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Catchweight: 160 pounds
Khabib Nurmagomedov (22-0; 6-0 UFC) vs. Darrell Horcher (12-1; 0-0 UFC)
Dagestan's Nurmagomedov finally returns to action after an absence of nearly two years. The bear-wrestling Russian was originally scheduled to face Tony Ferguson in this event's headliner, but a serious injury to the American that resulted in hospitalization led to the cancellation of the bout.
That's not the worst thing for Nurmagomedov, who hasn't fought since he drubbed current lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos in April 2014. A multitude of knee and rib injuries have kept the Russian out of action since then, but that was his sixth win in a row in the UFC. Before Dos Anjos, Pat Healy, Abel Trujillo, Thiago Tavares and Gleison Tibau all fell short against the stifling Nurmagomedov.
Into Ferguson's place steps the unknown Darrell Horcher, the Cage Fury Fighting Championships lightweight champion and a Bellator veteran. Horcher has won five in a row since losing to Phillipe Nover in April 2013.
This is a huge opportunity for Horcher against Nurmagomedov, who will likely become the top contender with a win.
Nurmagomedov is a special talent. The combat sambo champion melds together each phase of his game—striking, wrestling, the clinch and grappling—into a whole worth more than the sum of its parts, but each of those phases makes for a difficult puzzle in its own right.
Pure striking is likely the weakest part of the Dagestan native's arsenal, and yet he's still proficient enough to win fights solely in that phase. He has an outstanding understanding of cage positioning, with clean and efficient pressure footwork combined with strong circular and evasive movement when his opponent tries to press him backward.
Forward-moving combinations of punches and the occasional kick force Nurmagomedov's opponent back, and he excels at timing counterpunches when he feels pressure. Uppercuts are a specialty, and they serve both to catch ducking opponents and to open up follow-up hooks or overhands.
Nurmagomedov's blending of strikes and takedowns is some of the best in MMA history. Punches open up angles for shot or clinch entries, and he exchanges strikes in layers to open up particular takedowns.
In one sequence against Dos Anjos, for example, Nurmagomedov threw an uppercut, then another a moment later. When Dos Anjos countered the uppercut with a straight left, Nurmagomedov ducked under for a blast double. That's just one example of many such layers.
As a pure wrestler, few are better than Nurmagomedov. He's one of the best chain-wrestlers in the sport and puts together a bewildering variety of singles, doubles, body-lock trips, hip tosses and suplexes. His setups are infinitely varied, and he can hit them as he moves forward aggressively, as reactive counters, against the fence and in open space.
As if that weren't enough, Nurmagomedov is also a devastating grappler. He's a monster whenever he has his hands on his opponent, as he allows his opponent just enough space to scramble underneath him and wear himself out. Nurmagomedov is happy controlling his opponent from body locks and rides and sneaking in the occasional punch, but he's lethal from the top, where his punches pack serious power.
Getting to the back is a specialty, and opponents can never be sure in scrambles whether he will be content to land a few punches from the ride or whether he'll sink in his hooks and look for the choke. Even from his back, the Dagestani is dangerous, with an active guard that focuses on armbar-triangle-sweep series.
Horcher is mostly a striker. The southpaw is dangerous and packs serious power in his left hand, which he mixes up as a straight, overhand and uppercut and likes to throw in sequence. Body punching is a specialty. His left kick is likewise dangerous.
Counterpunching is the best facet of Horcher's game. He can hit pull counters, where he steps back, plants his feet and then unloads one or two shots, as well as backstepping counters in which he throws as he's moving. Both are lethal and fluid. He struggles a bit when forced to lead, however, and is quite hittable.
Serviceable takedown defense has mostly kept Horcher standing, though he has yet to be tested against elite opposition. The occasional takedown of his own adds some variety. He's solid on top but isn't a submission threat.
Betting Odds
Nurmagomedov -1100, Horcher +700
Prediction
Horcher's power and counterpunching ability combined with Nurmagomedov's long layoff makes the newcomer a live underdog here, but let's not fool ourselves: This is the Dagestani's fight to lose.
Far better defensive wrestlers than Horcher have failed to keep themselves standing, and on the mat Nurmagomedov has chewed up and spit out black belts and skilled grapplers. He finishes Horcher with a submission in the second round.
Glover Teixeira vs. Rashad Evans
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Light Heavyweights
Rashad Evans (19-4-1; 14-4-1 UFC) vs. Glover Teixeira (24-4; 7-2 UFC)
Former champion Evans takes on former top contender Teixeira in the evening's headliner. Both fighters have been sterling in their UFC careers, though both are now 36 years old and veterans of a dozen years in the sport. How much time they have left as elite fighters is the real question in this matchup.
Teixeira has won two in a row, both inside the distance, since suffering consecutive losses to Jon Jones and Phil Davis. He overwhelmed Patrick Cummins and Ovince Saint Preux and returned to form. Evans too had rebounded from a two-fight losing streak with a pair of wins, but he then spent two years on the shelf with a series of injuries and underwhelmed against Ryan Bader last October.
The winner will be close to another title shot in a thin and aging division, while the loser will likely be out of the picture for the near future.
Evans is a skilled and well-rounded fighter, but the real question is whether the issues he showed against Bader—difficulty pulling the trigger, a rhythm that was easy to disrupt on the feet and a serious lack of offense—were a product of his time away or are permanent fixtures in his game.
The answer is a bit of both. He's been a slow-paced fighter for a long time, and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira was able to disrupt his timing with jabs just as Bader did. The injuries and ring rust certainly didn't help, though.
Timing and speed have been Evans' hallmarks. He probes with a jab and then comes in with a punch or two at a time. The lone bright spot against Bader was how much better his counterpunching looked, and if he can't leap in and out the way he used to, this is an excellent change in his game.
Pure striking has never really been Evans' strong suit, though. Those punches serve mostly to cover his takedowns, particularly his double, which is explosive and authoritative.
The best part of the former champion's game comes from top position. He passes with gorgeous technique and is difficult to shake off. His ground striking packs serious power, particularly when he can stuff his opponent against the fence.
The Brazilian has better than average skills in every phase of the fight and can finish both on the feet and on the ground.
Aggression is his hallmark as a striker, and he stalks his opponent toward the fence with his right hand always ready to fire. Teixeira is right-hand dominant, and though he has added a crisp jab and strong left hook in recent years, he almost always leads with the right. Both hands carry fight-finishing power, and he's perfectly willing to exchange.
It's not particularly difficult to hit the Brazilian, though. His quick pace and aggressiveness mean that he's always in range to be hit, and he barely moves his head.
Teixeira is a surprisingly proficient wrestler as well. He has one of the best single-leg takedowns in MMA and can finish both with his head inside and by running the pipe. His shot isn't particularly explosive, though, and he has to be inside to find his angle. Strong takedown defense keeps him standing, and he's hard to hold down.
The former top contender has a violent top game. Vicious strikes open up smooth, technical passes and his favored arm-triangle choke. Guillotines and back-takes in transition make it dangerous to scramble with him.
Betting Odds
Teixeira -220, Evans +180
Prediction
Given both fighters' last performance, the betting line makes sense: Evans struggled, while Teixeira blew Cummins and before that Saint Preux out of the water. Still, unless Evans has seriously declined, this doesn't look like a particularly favorable matchup for the Brazilian.
Teixeira is aggressive but predictable and hittable on the counter, and his pressure should force Evans out of his lackadaisical pace. In that scenario, Evans' counterpunching skill and ability to blend strikes and takedowns should give him a good shot at planting Teixeira on the mat.
It will be difficult for Evans to keep pace if this is a pure striking matchup, however, and Teixeira could put him on the mat as well. The balance of the matchup favors Teixeira via decision in a competitive fight.
All betting odds via Odds Shark.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook.
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