Will We Get a Dream Sunday Leaderboard at the 2016 Masters?
It’s a tradition unlike any other.
So why not a leaderboard unlike any other?
Given that Tiger Woods is not prowling Augusta this year looking for the latest in a recent series of would-be career jump starts, it’s not so hard to imagine the next best thing when the Masters comes down the stretch Sunday afternoon and evening.
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The three best players on the planet. Locked in a three-way battle for major supremacy.
Given the track records of Jason Day, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy, it’s not so hard to imagine.
Not only are they slotted Nos. 1, 2 and 3, respectively, in the pre-Augusta world rankings, but they’ve also been the guys holding the trophies at the end of five of the last six major tournaments, stretching back to the 2014 British Open. And in the only event at which one of them failed to win—the 2015 British—Day and Spieth were a mere stroke out of a three-way playoff ultimately won by Zach Johnson.
The guys who make the lines for these things obviously buy in, too, as evidenced by Day’s standing as a favorite and McIlroy and Spieth as the second and third choices, in pre-tourney odds by Odds Shark.
Each man grinded his way through a windy, slick-greened opening round Thursday, with Spieth exiting as the 18-hole leader at six-under par. McIlroy and Day are in the weeds at two-under par and even par, respectively, though both showed enough flashes of brilliance to render a 1-2-3 order come Sunday—regardless of who holds which spot—as anything but an impossibility.
Here we’ll take a look at just what it’ll take to make it happen.
More of the same from Spieth
The more you watch this guy tee it up at marquee events, the harder it is to comprehend he’s 22.
He shared the 54-hole lead at the 2014 event at the tender age of 20, then added a first green jacket to his wardrobe as a 21-year-old with a wire-to-wire victory that was the tournament’s first in 39 years.
If he keeps it up this weekend, don't be surprised to hear people suggesting it’ll be him, and not Woods, who ultimately gets within striking distance of Jack Nicklaus’ record for major championship wins.
His 66 on Thursday made him the first defending Masters champion to hold an outright first-round lead since Nicklaus in 1968. His uncanny ability to steer the ball to the right spots on the Augusta greens—and then drain the putts once he gets it there—continues to make him as perfect a fit for the golf course as Woods was while racking up four titles between 1997 and 2005.
Given all that, it won’t take anything earth-shattering for him to be in the top three after 54 holes.
In fact, it’ll probably be far more a surprise if he’s not.
Probability he’s in the top three after Saturday: 90 percent
A little more consistency from McIlroy
Though his efforts have not yet translated to a Masters win, McIlroy has shown he can compete on the highest levels at Augusta.
In 2011, he was the youngest 18-hole leader in tournament history. He held 36- and 54-hole leads before an epic Sunday meltdown that saw him shoot a final-round 80 to tie for 15th. He was a stroke off the lead at the halfway mark a year later then finished a career-best fourth in 2015—six strokes off of Spieth’s front-running pace.
Glimpses of that acumen were evident as he rolled through the back nine Thursday, when an eagle at the 13th and a birdie at the 15th got him to four-under par and within two shots of Spieth’s clubhouse lead.
At that point, a flat-footed tie seemed possible.
A bogey-par-bogey finish dropped him to two-under par, however, and illustrated his tendency to both go too big on drives (No. 16) and be less than automatic on short putts (No. 18).
More so than any of the would-be dreamers, he needs to limit the spectacular flame-out mistakes. Because when things are going well—and as he’s shown in two previous eight-stroke major wins—he’s got the game to lap any field he’s in.
Probability he’s in the top three after Saturday: 50 percent
Renewed mental toughness from Day
A quick look at Day’s Thursday scorecard shows he belongs on this big stage.
He eagled one hole and birdied three others on the front nine while shooting a five-under par 31, and he was still within a stroke of Spieth’s final number after birdieing the 13th and making par on the 14th.
Like McIlroy, it seemed at that point a shared lead—or even an outright lead of his own—was possible for the man who broke through for his first marquee title last August at the PGA Championship, where his 20-under par was the best score in major history.
Until, that is, a poor approach shot on No. 15 led to a three-putt bogey and a tugged drive on No. 16 wound up in the water and yielded a triple-bogey 6. Another bogey at 17 dropped him to even par for the round and illustrated just how important maintaining concentration is throughout a round.
“I felt like I played some really good golf up until then,” Day told the media after the round. “Five-under par and obviously just—if you get yourself out of position here at this course, it's very difficult to salvage par. And unfortunately, starting at 15, I got myself out of position pretty good.”
Six shots off the 18-hole lead doesn’t make a top-three standing on Sunday any more likely, but given where Day was through 14 holes, it’s just as obvious he can handle the course, even in the wind.
All other things being equal, simply replacing the triple-bogey with a par for the next two rounds would go a long way toward getting the Australian where he needs to be down the stretch.
Probability he’s in the top three after Saturday: 30 percent
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