Pacquiao vs. Bradley III: Expert Picks for the Main Event
A little less than 48 months ago, Manny Pacquiao, among the greatest boxers the world has ever seen, was the victim of a blatant robbery. In front of 14,206 witnesses at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, and 700,000 more on pay-per-view, his opponent, Timothy Bradley, stole a win in one of boxing's all-time worst decisions.
Judges C.J. Ross and Duane Ford, against all visual evidence and reason, gave Bradley a bout that almost every member of the professional boxing media saw clearly for Pacquiao. Despite landing 94 more punches and 82 more power punches, according to CompuBox, Pacquiao somehow walked away a loser for the first time in more than seven years.
On Saturday, Pacquiao returns to the scene of the crime to face Bradley for a third time. Avenging his loss in 2014 apparently was not enough. Technically, in the history books—if not the minds and hearts of all fans—the two men are even. This fight, we are told, will settle the score once and for all.
"This fight has a very special meaning to me, and I will pour every ounce of my being—physically, emotionally and spiritually—into preparing for Bradley," Pacquiao told the press when the fight was announced. "He has my full attention."
The fight could quite possibly be the last one of Pacquiao's Hall of Fame career. Can the 37-year-old legend go out on a high note? Or will he return to his native Philippines with a seventh loss on his resume?
Bleacher Report has gathered its boxing experts to render judgement. Have some thoughts of your own? Let us hear them in the comments.
Who Wins the Fight? When and How?
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Lyle Fitzsimmons: I thought the first fight was closer than a lot of people did, and I was pretty sure Bradley would win the rematch. So obviously, I get to No. 3 without a reliable picture. That said, I think it’s Bradley’s time.
Not wholly because trainer Teddy Atlas has reinvented him and not entirely because Pacquiao is close to the end of the line. But put the two together, and it seems change is inevitable. Bradley’s got more self-belief for this one, and that will be the difference in him outhustling the 37-year-old for a close, unanimous decision—say, 115-113 all around.
Kelsey McCarson: Pacquiao will win the fight via unanimous decision. Bradley will try a different strategy than he used in the other fights. Heck, he might try three or four of them.
But Pacquiao is just too fast for Bradley, too elite. His quick and heavy hands will carry him to the win, and while it won’t be a blowout, it will be as easy a fight to score as the other two fights were, maybe even easier.
Kevin McRae: Conventional wisdom says picking against Manny Pacquiao is a fool’s errand here, so you can go right ahead and call me a fool.
Pacquiao has been on the shelf for nearly a year. He's 37 years old, coming off a hugely disappointing loss to Floyd Mayweather where he wasn't competitive and has been vilified from coast to coast for his dehumanizing rhetoric. Oh, and that bum shoulder. Tim Bradley has more to prove and more left in the tank. He finally gets the elusive, non-controversial victory over Pacquiao via unanimous decision.
Briggs Seekins: I expect Manny Pacquiao to win another unanimous decision. Like most people with functioning eyeballs, I believe Pacquiao deserved to win their first fight, and the rematch was even more decisive in his favor. I think there's the potential for this one to be closer than the second fight, when Bradley seemed to completely run out of gas in the second half of the bout. Teddy Atlas will do a better job of coaching him round by round, and Bradley will still be competitive late in the fight.
But ultimately, Pacquiao's speed will still be the difference here. He will be able to get the better angles and score with better punches. I expect both men will land at better percentages than they did in the first two fights, with Pacquiao inflicting more damage on Bradley. But he won't inflict enough damage to end the fight, and this one will go to the cards.
Jonathan Snowden: It's tough to choose a winner when both fighters are so clearly past their sell-by dates. If past is prologue, Pacquiao easily won the first fight no matter what. The second bout was much closer, but it was still clearly Manny's moment.
But there's a big difference between 35 and 37. And in this rubber match, Pacquiao will be dealing with a bum shoulder to go along with his persistent leg problems. I have a feeling that Bradley, despite struggles of his own in recent fights, will take advantage of his younger legs and outbox the fading legend en route to his first legitimate win in this series. Bradley by split decision.
The Moment We’ll Remember Most Is…
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Fitzsimmons: It may not be the moment most deserving of our memories, but it’s a near certainty Teddy Atlas will say something over the course of 36 minutes that will go viral. He was a fireman last time, so maybe this time it’ll be an ambulance driver, a police sergeant or some other first-responder type—perhaps an IT help-desk operator.
McCarson: The moment we’ll remember most is toward the end of the fight, when the realization comes to us that this really might be the very last time we see Pacquiao fight. Alongside the retired Floyd Mayweather, Pacquiao is the premier star of the era.
McRae: It's gonna be something to do with Teddy Atlas, who is the fight’s biggest personality and character. Let's say Teddy and Tim walk to the ring dressed as firemen to score some points off the trainer’s epic rant during the Brandon Rios fight. As for in the ring, Bradley’s hand being raised will be memorable.
Seekins: I actually think the biggest drama in this fight might come from Teddy Atlas working Bradley's corner between rounds. I think somewhere about Round 8 or 9, with Pacquiao starting to build a lead, Atlas will launch into another emotional pep talk similar to the "We are firemen!" speech he broke out during the Bradley-Rios fight.
Snowden: Based on his reception at the MGM Grand, the most memorable moment will be Manny Pacquiao's introduction. Skills fade, but the fans' love never does. Pacquiao will be greeted like a boxing god. He may not fight like one anymore, but no one seems to hold that against him.
Will This Fight Be a Dud?
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Fitzsimmons: That depends on the criteria used. Will it make people forget Arturo Gatti? No. But will it be a matchup of two pound-for-pound stars who are light-years above Gatti on the all-time scale? Absolutely. So, if you prefer watching top-level stars using strategy over mid-level 3, this will suit you just fine.
McCarson: I like this fight more than most. The first two weren’t boring, and enough has happened since they last fought to make me think it could be the most entertaining bout of the trilogy. A better Bradley against an older Pacquiao? Yes, please.
McRae: Nope. Quite the opposite. Both men have a lot to prove, and both will make that apparent in the ring. This will easily be the best fight of the trilogy, which is a shame since most people won't bother tuning in.
Seekins: That's a tough question to answer. Nobody expects it to do terrific buy numbers. Few really expect an exciting fight. As it is, this is a bout with historic significance. Pacquiao and Bradley are two of the more talented fighters in the world. When measured against the traditional standards one expects from a PPV fight, yeah, it's probably going to be a dud. When measured against the lowered expectations most already have going into this event, it may actually surprise us a little bit. I don't think it's going to be a terrible fight. But I don't think it will be a great one, either.
Snowden: Neither fighter is as good as they were in 2012, the first time they stepped into the ring together. But sometimes those diminished skills can actually lead to a more exciting fight. This will be a less technical fight than we've seen from these two men in the past. And, strangely, I think that will make it a better one for the fans.
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Will This Be Manny's Last Fight?
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Fitzsimmons: How’s about a big, fat maybe? Depending on whose microphone he’s talking toward, the Filipino legend has made it either sound like he’s through or like he’s got plenty of gas left. There are still plenty of options out there for him, so, given that waffling, it’s hard to imagine he’s not got a plan for another.
McCarson: I hope so. Pacquiao doesn’t really have anything left to prove. Besides a fifth fight with Juan Manuel Marquez, who knocked Pacquiao out in the last fight, there are really no other fights out there that make a ton of sense. The public’s appetite for a second Mayweather fight is nil, and he’d probably be better off letting Terence Crawford make a mark against someone else.
McRae: So many factors at play in this question. If Manny wins, he's absolutely back. A fight with Terence Crawford is too attractive to pass up. If he loses, then things get a bit murkier. I say he does lose and then takes a farewell fight with Crawford to either go out on top or pass the torch.
Seekins: I'm going to say it will be his last fight in 2016. And he might not fight again in 2017, either. But Manny doesn't even turn 40 until December 17, 2018. So there are a lot of years left for him to start missing the spotlight and paydays that come with being a boxing superstar while he's still young enough to think he has enough left physically to make another run at it. I'm not prepared to say this will definitely be his last fight.
Snowden: The calculus here is simple enough that a graphing calculator isn't required. Even an abacus will do. If Manny wins, he'll soldier on to the next bout, likely against rising star Terence Crawford. If he falls short, it's time to call it a career.
Who Will Bradley Fight Next? When and Where?
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Fitzsimmons: Given my fight prediction, I think the world will open up for Desert Storm with a win. He’s got a stablemate in Terence Crawford, and there’s always Danny Garcia—with whom he reigned at 140 but never engaged. But a redo with another incumbent champion, Jessie Vargas, is the path easiest to chart. Let’s say October, in Carson, California.
McCarson: Pacquiao again? I kid. I think Bradley ends up in a rematch against Jessie Vargas, with the winner promised a date with rising superstar Crawford. Vargas had Bradley out on his feet last time out, and he looked great in knocking out Sadam Ali in March.
McRae: Bradley will have some options. A rematch with Jessie Vargas, whom he decisioned last year, gives him a chance to win a fifth world title and one he never lost in the ring. I'd like to see him fight IBF champ Kell Brook or even Amir Khan, but Vargas at the StubHub Center in Carson, California, is where we end up in the fall.
Seekins: I would really love to see Bradley fight one of the younger stars in the welterweight division. I'd like to see him head over to England and take on Kell Brook. I'd love to see him against the winner of Keith Thurman and Shawn Porter. From a promotional standpoint, a fight with fellow Top Rank staple Terence Crawford would be very intriguing. But something makes me think his next fight is likely to be a rematch with Jessie Vargas next fall in Las Vegas.
Snowden: If Bradley loses, the immediate future isn't especially promising. Most of the best welterweights in the world fight under other promoters' banners, leaving Bradley as the odd man out. If he wins, I expect to see him instead of Pacquiao in Omaha, Nebraska, as a stepping stone in Terence Crawford's rise to the top.
Jonathan Snowden covers combat sports for Bleacher Report.
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