Masters 2016: Last-Minute Odds, Picks and Projections
The azaleas are upon us, so it must be time for the 2016 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club.
It is an interesting group that descends upon the beautiful, but daunting, par-72, 7,434-yard layout this year, led by defending champion Jordan Spieth. But despite running away with the tournament last year, setting a record for birdies before his third round was even complete, Spieth knows he's hardly the slam-dunk favorite this year.
That's reflected in the fact Odds Shark lists him behind Jason Day on the list of favorites to win 2016's event.
Spieth recently told the Dallas Morning News' Bill Nichols
"I think this year's Masters might be the hardest one to win in quite a while as far as the depth of the field and the quality of golf being played by people who play Augusta National very well. There's a bunch of guys who love the tournament and the course (this) week that are playing great golf.
"
There is no Tiger Woods this year, who's not sufficiently recovered yet from his latest back surgery. But Phil Mickelson and a number of other players who have won this tournament in previous years are back and appear to be playing well enough to make a run at another green jacket.
Then there are other young guns seemingly poised to mount their own charges, all of which should make for a fascinating four days once the first major of the year commences Thursday morning. We break it all down here.
Windy Weather Could Be a Factor
1 of 10
Generally speaking, the weather forecast for the tournament appears to be fantastic.
But it's going to be windy for at least the first three days, and that could make it tricky for players who already will be dealing with a challenging, sometimes intimidating layout.
Thursday, the opening day, has the potential to be the worst. The high temperature, according to Weather.com, will be a perfect 74 degrees. But there could be some rain showers in the morning, and winds are expected to gust up to 18 miles per hour.
The high temp Friday will be 69 degrees with a mostly sunny forecast, but winds will still be whipping around at up to 18 mph. There is a zero chance of precipitation.
For Saturday's third round, the high is expected to top out at a slightly cooler 65 degrees under a cloudless, sunny sky and a zero chance of precipitation. But the winds will max out at 20 mph.
Sunday's final round will be played under calmer conditions, which could produce the lowest-scoring rounds of the entire tournament under a forecast calling for a high temperature of 66 degrees with sunny skies, no chance of rain and the wind falling off to no more than six mph.
The Donald's Former Apprentice Could Draw a Large Crowd
2 of 10
With no Tiger in sight, one of the largest gallery followings could end up trailing Jim Herman.
Jim who, you say?
Well, while Herman isn't exactly a household name in golf or anywhere else, he did win the Shell Houston Open against an impressive field last weekend to earn a two-year PGA exemption and a spot in this week's Masters field. Herman did so by firing a final-round 68 to edge out a couple of capable fellows named Dustin Johnson and Henrik Stenson.
Herman, 38, also happens to be the former assistant club pro at Trump National in Bedminster, New Jersey, where he got to know current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, his de facto boss at the time, by playing a few rounds with him.
One day, according to John Strege of Golf Digest, Trump pulled Herman aside in the clubhouse and told him: “Why are you folding shirts and giving lessons? Why aren’t you on the tour? I've played with tour players. You're good enough.”
Now he is.
Not only that, but he also comes into his first Masters as the winner of the latest PGA Tour tournament. According to Steve DiMeglio of USA Today, Herman went on to say Trump even wrote him a check at some point, helping him financially to chase the dream that only now, several years later, is becoming reality.
So if Herman's former boss shows up at Augusta at some point to cheer him on, he'll no doubt bring along the largest traveling entourage anyone has seen this side of Tiger Woods in his prime.
Is This the New Big Three?
3 of 10
Remember the glory days of golf when the Big Three of Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer and Gary Player ruled the Augusta greens?
Sure, there were other golfers during that era, like Lee Trevino, who frequently challenged the Big Three. But there was a remarkable nine-year stretch from 1958 to 1966 when either Palmer, Player or Nicklaus won the Masters a total of eight times (Palmer four times, Nicklaus three and Player—who later won at Augusta two more times—once).
Spieth, Day and McIlroy stand poised to possibly become golf's next great Big Three. But they've got to rattle off wins on this stage to actually validate that possibility.
Spieth did his part last year at age 21, finishing with a total score of 18 under par that tied for the lowest four-round total in Masters history. Day, 28, has come painfully close—leading as he stood on the 16th tee before back-to-back bogeys forced him to settle for third in 2013, after tying for second in 2011.
And McIlroy, 26, has won every other major there is, but he's still at zero wins for his young career at Augusta.
A victory by any one of the three, especially if the other two are in the mix on the final day, would go a long way toward truly establishing them as golf's next great trio.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
What About Bubba?
4 of 10
You can never count out Bubba Watson at the Masters.
The 37-year-old is developing a San Francisco Giants-esque pattern at Augusta. He won the tournament in 2012 and 2014 and is eyeing his third consecutive even-year triumph.
And guess what? Watson also won the Northern Trust Open at Riviera in February. The last time he won the Northern Trust Open was in 2014, just before capturing his second green jacket.
Considering Watson followed up his latest Northern Trust Open win with a second-place finish at the WGC-Cadillac Championship, his game seems to be in fine form for this week.
He may not be putting too much stock in the pattern that's seemingly developing, but Watson still likes his chances.
"Being in the field at Augusta gives me good vibes," he said via Garry Smits of the Florida Times Union (via PGA.com). "It means absolutely nothing what you do the week before or leading up to it. We all know that. But y'all have to write stories."
Australian Invasion
5 of 10
Jason Day and Adam Scott aren't just the two hottest Australian golfers heading into Augusta. They are two of the hottest professional golfers in the world, period.
Day comes in ranked as the world's No. 1 player by virtue of winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the WGC-Dell Match Play tournaments back to back before sitting out last weekend's Shell Houston Open to better prepare for the Masters. In the six tournaments he's played in on the PGA Tour since Jan. 10, he's won two, tied for 10th, tied for 11th and tied for 23rd while missing the cut in only one.
Day did not downplay the fact he's enjoying being ranked as the top player in the world heading into the first major of 2016, telling Bill Nichols of the Dallas Morning News: "It's something I'm definitely going to be embracing. It will be fun to walk through the gates as No. 1 in the world."
Meanwhile, Scott has been playing well, too. Before finishing tied for 12th in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and getting knocked out early in Dell Match Play, he finished tied for second behind winner Bubba Watson at the Northern Trust Open and then won in back-to-back weeks at the Honda Classic and the WGC-Cadillac Championship.
Plus, Scott has won at Augusta before, slipping on the green jacket in 2013. He knows how to handle the pressure down the stretch at this place, which is like no other.
The Next Wave
6 of 10
The next wave of contenders is long and dangerous and includes a number of former champions as well as a few outstanding golfers still seeking that first major championship.
At the top of the latter list are Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler, the only two golfers among the top eight favorites Odds Shark projected who have yet to win a major. Henrik Stenson is another who seems to have the game to win multiple majors, but is still seeking his first.
Former Masters champions who are playing well enough at the moment to be a factor include Phil Mickelson, who won at Augusta in 2004, 2006 and 2010; Zach Johnson, who won in 2007 and won his second career major last summer at the British Open; 2011 winner Charl Schwartzel; and 2013 winner Adam Scott.
Then there are guys like Justin Rose and Louis Oosthuizen, who have won other majors but have not broken through at Augusta National. Rose, the 2013 U.S. Open champ, tied for second in last year's Masters. Oosthuizen lost to Bubba Watson in a sudden-death playoff in the 2012 Masters—the third time the 2010 British Open champion has been a runner-up in a major.
Don't count any of these guys out, as they all could be in the mix come Sunday.
Amateur Hour
7 of 10
Bryson DeChambeau technically is one of six amateurs in the Masters field this year.
But that's not the way many see it, including golf writer Kyle Porter of CBS Sports. Porter recently wrote the following: "There are really five amateurs in the Masters this year...and Bryson DeChambeau. To describe DeChambeau as an amateur in the same way Derek Bard and Cheng Jin are amateurs is to do a disservice to the golfer [CBS announcer] Jim Nantz thinks could change the sport."
Writing recently for Golf Digest, Nantz further explained and offered some unique insight into DeChambeau— the reigning NCAA and U.S. Amateur champion. Nantz wrote:
"Casey Reamer, the head pro at Cypress Point and a mentor to Bryson, asked if I would speak to him about the history of the Masters. It was an amazing two hours. He asked every question imaginable about every significant player in Masters history, with an emphasis on tales of amateurs such as Billy Joe Patton, Frank Stranahan, Ken Venturi and Charlie Coe.
I have DVDs of all the recent Masters, and Bryson asked to borrow them, not for entertainment so much as to study hole locations, how putts break, where players were laying up on the par 5s. This young man is obsessed with winning the Masters as an amateur. His mind works in a unique, scientific way.
"
Based on all this, many eyes will be on DeChambeau, and it will be fun to see if he can live up to the hype. This will be his only shot at contending in a Masters as an amateur, as he already has announced he will be turning pro—next week, in fact.
Dark-Horse Possibilities
8 of 10
Patrick Reed heads up a group of dark-horse possibilities who could contend.
Reed, 25, hasn't taken a weekend off from competitive play since just after Christmas. And although he hasn't won yet this season, he's finished second twice and placed in the top 12 nine times already. He's also only the fifth player in the last 25 years to win at least four times on tour before his 26th birthday, joining the impressive foursome of Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia.
Plus Reed is very familiar with the Augusta layout, having played many rounds there while leading Augusta State to back-to-back national championships in 2010-11.
So far, though, that hasn't translated into much in the Masters. He missed the cut in 2014, his first major, and finished tied for 22nd last year. His best finish to date in a major was a tie for 14th at the U.S. Open last year.
"It just seems like that one missing piece right now is just contending and trying to win a major,” Reed told Scott Michaux of the Augusta Chronicle prior to last year's Masters Tournament.
A year later, that's still the case. Reed can change that this weekend, which is the same for other possible dark-horse contenders such as Hideki Matsuyama, Jimmy Walker and Danny Willett.
Tournament A.T. (After Tiger)
9 of 10
There will be no Tiger Woods at Augusta this weekend.
In a way, it's a relief. Woods has in recent years become more of a sideshow at the majors, as his game has eroded along with his health. It seemed everyone kept holding their breath, wondering if the old Tiger would show up, when in fact it is becoming more evident every day that the old Tiger simply no longer exists.
Woods took to his website last Friday to issue the following statement:
"After assessing the present condition of my back, and consulting with my medical team, I've decided it's prudent to miss this year's Masters. I've been hitting balls and training daily, but I'm not physically ready. I've said all along that this time I need to be cautious and do what's best for my long-term health and career.
Unfortunately, playing Augusta next week wouldn't be the right decision. I'm absolutely making progress, and I'm really happy with how far I've come, but I still have no timetable to return to competitive golf.
"
In other words, folks, he's not coming back anytime soon. When and if he does, he's not likely to much resemble the Tiger Woods who previously won 14 majors.
It's time for young players like Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy to continue filling the void. They are more than capable, so get over it. Tiger as we've known him is done.
And Our Pick Is...
10 of 10
Jason Day is due to win the Masters.
Scratch that. He's overdue.
It has been three years since he stood on the 16th tee at Augusta with the outright lead on a Sunday at the Masters, fresh off three consecutive birdies. But then he hit a poor tee shot and bogeyed the hole, followed by another bogey at No. 17 that left him in third, on the outside looking in, when fellow Australian Adam Scott went to a sudden-death playoff with Angel Cabrera.
Now he arrives as arguably the hottest golfer on the planet, having won his last two tournaments.
Day told Golf Digest's Dave Shedloski after winning the Dell Match Play (he sat out last week's Shell Houston Open): "It's been good momentum for me, confidence-wise, over the last two weeks. I can’t get comfortable with how I’m playing right now, I can’t get lazy, because I’ve got to understand that what I’m doing is working."
He's more than ready, so size him up for it.
Joe Menzer is a Digital Content Producer for FoxSports.com and the host of a weekly ESPN radio show in Charlotte, North Carolina, who also writes about golf and other sports for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @OneMenz.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
