Masters Odds 2016: Breakdown and Analysis of Top Favorites' Chances
Two stars who have never won a Masters Tournament have surpassed the reigning champions as 2016's favorites to inherit the green jacket.
According to Odds Shark's Stephen Campbell, Jason Day has sprinted ahead of 2015 winner Jordan Spieth as the prohibitive favorite. A year removed from his first top-five finish at Augusta National, Rory McIlroy has also surpassed Spieth as the runner-up choice.
Once the 80th Masters commences on Thursday, Bubba Watson, Adam Scott and Phil Mickelson, among others, will have something to say about the previous trio's front-runner status. But since Vegas identified them as the golfers to beat, let's examine their chances of winning the major.
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| Jason Day | 7-1 |
| Rory McIlroy | 19-2 |
| Jordan Spieth | 10-1 |
| Bubba Watson | 12-1 |
| Adam Scott | 12-1 |
| Rickie Fowler | 16-1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 18-1 |
| Dustin Johnson | 20-1 |
| Justin Rose | 25-1 |
| Henrik Stenson | 25-1 |
Jason Day
Even after notching a disappointing No. 28 finish last year, Day is a popular choice to win his first Masters and second major.
The world's No. 1-ranked golfer enters Augusta with back-to-back wins in March. Including a surge to end 2015, ESPN Stats & Info noted his dominance dating back to last summer:
His backers might hesitate after learning he arrived a day late to Georgia due to flu-like symptoms. Per the Sydney Morning Herald's Ben Everill, the reigning PGA Championship winner described his illness as no more than a minor setback.
"I have to find a way to get back on top of my health and get back on the golf course quicker because I want to win more," Day said. "As long as I stick to my practice and stay disciplined in the lead-up, I should be ready to go by Thursday's first round."
Although he has never earned a green jacket, he has come tantalizing close, tying for No. 2 in 2011 and placing No. 3 in 2013. “This has been a tournament in the past that I've tried too hard and shot myself out of the tournament,” Day told the Independent's Phil Casey.
He has never thrived on driving accuracy, but an improvement over his 56.47 percentage would go a long way to meeting the hype. The 28-year-old has churned out 10 top-10 major finishes but only converted one into a triumph. If fully recuperated, this weekend presents a golden opportunity to finally seize the limelight.
Rory McIlroy
McIlroy has won every major championship except the Masters.
The four-time champion keeps inching closer to his first green jacket. After finishing no higher than No. 15 in five tries, he placed No. 8 in 2014 and No. 4 last year. Per ESPN.com's Jason Sobel, the 26-year-old expressed confidence in eventually breaking the drought:
He has handled the course well in spite of his ultimate imperfections. Courtesy of Campbell, McIlroy has finished 14 rounds under par since 2011's monumental collapse. That gives him the most, with Justin Rose's dozen trailing.
Often the center of attention—especially while vying for his third straight major last year—McIlroy has taken a back seat to Spieth and Day. Per USA Today's Steve DiMeglio, he will also skip Wednesday's Par 3 Contest in an attempt to alleviate stress:
"I really feel like I play my best golf when I’m more relaxed, when I’m having fun out there and I’m not, as you said, not overdoing it, not overthinking it. ... So very happy with where the game is and really just looking forward to getting going on Thursday and really not trying to put too much emphasis on it or too much pressure on myself. Just try and go out and really enjoy it.
"
The strong driver should flourish at Augusta National, but his inconsistencies make him one of golf's toughest stars to project. A loose McIlroy could avoid putting problems and finally cement a career Grand Slam.
Jordan Spieth
According to CBS Sports' Kyle Porter, each of the last 10 Masters winners exited the opening round inside the top 10. Of those champions, Spieth posted the best score (64) last year. With a second-place finish preceding his victory, he has averaged the best first-round tallies over the last decade in a short sample.
Another rousing start is pivotal for Spieth emerging victorious again, but Round 1 has proved to be his worst stage in 2016:
| 1 | 70.86 | 133 |
| 2 | 69.43 | 13 |
| 3 | 68.67 | 8 |
| 4 | 69.83 | 35 |
| Final Average | 69.83 | 35 |
Porter also noted poor results from defending champions since Tiger Woods became the third person to achieve back-to-back victories:
He shouldn't get punished for his peers' shortcomings, but Spieth doesn't enter the prohibitive favorite due to a lackluster stretch. Since winning the Hyundai Tournament of Champions in January, the 22-year-old has amassed one top-10 finish in six events.
Nevertheless, he didn't express any concern to the New York Post's George Willis.
“Last year my consistency was there,” Spieth said. “We were coming off better finishes than I am this year. But everything is exactly where it was last year. It’s right where we want it to be going into the Masters. It’s just a matter now of hitting nerve-racking shots and putts.”
Throughout his struggles, he has maintained the PGA Tour's top putting average. Even if he's not rolling into Augusta red-hot like last year, he rightfully remains a top contender who can stay in the spotlight with a strong start.
All stats courtesy of PGATour.com.
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