Masters Odds 2016: Round-by-Round Predictions for Augusta
The first major golf tournament of the year is nearly upon, us as the 2016 Masters begins Thursday at the Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia.
Much will be expected of defending champion Jordan Spieth. American fans were quick to talk up the 22-year-old after he finished tied for second at the 2014 Masters. Spieth then more than validated the hype by winning the 2015 Masters and U.S. Open.
Should Spieth succeed this year, he'll be just the fourth golfer of all time to win back-to-back Masters, joining Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods, who last accomplished the feat in 2001 and '02.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Not only will Spieth be battling history, but he'll also have to fend off a deep field of stars capable of adding a green jacket to their closets. Here's a look at the odds for the top challengers, per Odds Shark, followed by round-by-round projections for the Masters leader.
Masters Odds
| Jason Day | 7-1 |
| Rory McIlroy | 19-2 |
| Jordan Spieth | 10-1 |
| Bubba Watson | 12-1 |
| Adam Scott | 12-1 |
| Rickie Fowler | 16-1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 18-1 |
| Dustin Johnson | 20-1 |
| Justin Rose | 25-1 |
| Henrik Stenson | 25-1 |
Round-by-Round Projections
Round 1: Phil Mickelson
Phil Mickelson's average Round 1 score of 68.43 is the fourth-lowest on the PGA Tour. He then ranks 82nd, tied for second and tied for 38th over the three subsequent rounds. It shouldn't be a huge surprise a 45-year-old who suffers from psoriatic arthritis struggles to maintain consistency from round to round. Even so, he leads the PGA Tour in scoring average (69.17).
Mickelson's record in the first round of the Masters is somewhat spotty. He's averaged 71.13 on the opening 18 holes, according to the Augusta Chronicle, and his last sub-70 first round came in 2010, his last Masters win.
Golf Channel researcher Justin Ray explained why Mickelson's scoring average portends good things for the three-time champion:
Mickelson should get off to a hot start Thursday. Whether he maintains that hot start is another issue.
Round 2: Jason Day
Simply put, Jason Day is playing the best golf of anybody on the PGA Tour. The tour's Twitter account shared his recent results following WGC-Dell Match Play:
Day's results at Augusta haven't gone his way the last two years. He tied for 20th in 2014 and tied for 28th in 2015. Of course, even the best golfer can't finish in the top 10 every year, and Day entered the 2014 Masters at less than 100 percent.
According to Odds Shark, the 28-year-old is now the sole favorite to win the 2016 Masters, inching ahead of Spieth and Rory McIlroy with 7-1 odds.
All it takes is a few bad holes to ruin Day's tournament, but as long as everything goes according to plan, he should be at or near the top of the leaderboard from start to finish at the Masters.
Round 3: Jason Day
Should Day find himself atop the leaderboard, the chances are pretty good he's going to stay there a while. He doesn't boast overly impressive scores from round to round. Instead, he's steady over the course of a tournament:
| 1 | 70.20 |
| 2 | 70.40 |
| 3 | 69.50 |
| 4 | 69.75 |
The WGC-Dell Match Play was a great example of how Day's consistency can put so much pressure on the other golfers. He had seven pars, one bogey and five birdies in the championship against Louis Oosthuizen, winning 5 up on the 14th hole.
"I couldn't buy a birdie," said Oosthuizen after the match, per the Associated Press (via USA Today). "I played OK, but nothing spectacular. Up against a guy like Jason, you need to play three or four under to have a chance."
Few things at Augusta will be scarier for the rest of the field than seeing Day in first place.
Masters Champion: Rickie Fowler
By the time Sunday rolls around, the pretenders will have been firmly separated from the contenders. Unless a golfer is either leading or within a few shots of the leader after three rounds, his chances of winning a green jacket are slim to none. With that said, owning the 54-hole lead isn't a prerequisite.
Here's how the last five Masters champions performed in the rounds leading up to the final day:
| 2015 | Jordan Spieth | 1st | 1st | 1st |
| 2014 | Bubba Watson | T2nd | 1st | T1st |
| 2013 | Adam Scott | T10th | T7th | 3rd |
| 2012 | Bubba Watson | T4th | T3rd | 4th |
| 2011 | Charl Schwartzel | T7th | T12th | T2nd |
Rickie Fowler has some demons to exorcise at Augusta. He was two shots back heading into the final round of the 2014 Masters but shot a one-over 73 on Sunday to finish in a tie for fifth. And before that, he had never finished the tournament higher than 27th.
The 27-year-old steadily improved at last year's Masters, with his score dropping with each subsequent round. GolfChannel.com's Brandel Chamblee argued Fowler is better off now than he was this time last year:
"In the past, Rickie’s inconsistency with his irons has hurt him at Augusta and put too much pressure on his short game to save par and given him too few looks at birdie. But his iron play is much improved, as is every other aspect of his game. He leads the Tour in the all-around category and is tied for first in par-5 scoring average along with… Adam Scott.
"
Sometimes, experiencing failure is necessary in order to find success, especially at a major tournament. Spieth finished runner-up to Bubba Watson in 2014 and won the Masters a year later. Mickelson had too many close calls to count before earning his first green jacket.
Fowler talked about his pre-Masters preparation earlier in the month, per Scott Michaux of the Augusta Chronicle:
"I probably started thinking about it as soon as the tournament finished last year. It's a special place. You love going back to Augusta, everything about it. But I think swing-wise and hitting shots, really probably started the week before last, before Honda. You have to be able to shape it both ways. You don't have to but it helps to be able to shape it both ways.
"
While it can't match Day's, Fowler's 2016 record is impressive in its own right, per the PGA Tour's Twitter account:
On his best day, Fowler is more than capable of winning the Masters, and if he's within striking distance of the leader by the end of Saturday, he'll have a strong chance of triumphing. His lowest average score (68.71) comes in the final round.
All stats are courtesy of PGATour.com unless otherwise noted.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
