NASCAR at Texas: Preview, Prediction for the Duck Commander 500

After finishing in the top five for several races this season, Kyle Busch at last grabbed victory at the least likely of tracks: Martinsville, where he had gone 32 tries without a win.

This weekend, the field heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the Duck Commander 500, the first night race on the calendar.

A year ago, Jimmie Johnson won this race, and Kevin Harvick finished second. There’s little reason to think it won’t be a similar result with the usual 1.5-mile suspects dominating this track. Someone beyond the tenured elite needs to get a move on.

With this being the seventh race of the season, the year is just about 20 percent complete. Teams that intend to make the Chase need to show signs that they’re ready for that push.

Yes, it’s early, but the Sprint Cup Series is over 25 percent through with its regular season, so urgency is the word.

Read on for a Texas-sized preview and prediction of the Duck Commander 500.

By the Numbers: Texas Motor Speedway

Larry Papke/Associated Press

Duck Commander 500

Place: Texas Motor Speedway

Date: Saturday

Pre-race Coverage: 7 p.m. (ET), Fox Pre-Race Show, Fox

Green Flag: 7:46 p.m. (ET), Fox

Distance: 334 laps, 500 miles

Defending winner: Jimmie Johnson

Current Driver Standings

Steve Helber/Associated Press

1. Kevin Harvick, 220
2. Jimmie Johnson, 216
3. Kyle Busch, 215
4. Carl Edwards, 206
5. Joey Logano, 196
6. Brad Keselowski, 178
7. Austin Dillon, 176
8. Kurt Busch, 176
9. Denny Hamlin, 172
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr., 172
11. Martin Truex Jr., 150
12. A.J. Allmendinger, 147
13. Jamie McMurray, 143
14. Matt Kenseth, 140
15. Ryan Blaney, 132
16. Chase Elliott, 131

Note: Bold signifies 2016 race winner.

The Too-Early-to-Watch Chase Bubble

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Two Above the Line

Ryan Blaney

Two rookies, led by Ryan Blaney, occupy spots Nos. 15 and 16.

Blaney, to his credit, climbed two spots and back into the Chase Grid after Martinsville.

“There were runs where I thought we were really and other runs where I thought we lacked a little bit,” Blaney said after the race on the Fox broadcast. “We were on the lead lap a lot and learned a lot that we can apply to the fall race here.”

The big question: Will Blaney be in the Chase come the fall race? Martinsville is the first race of the eliminator round, so if he makes it that far, he’ll already be doing something special.

Chase Elliott

Overall, Chase Elliott didn’t lose a spot on the Chase Grid this week. He stayed put at No. 16.

Elliott made his Cup car debut at Martinsville a year ago, and this time around had a far better result. A speeding penalty on pit road cost Elliott some spots, and so did Blaney.

So far, in the early going, it’s intriguing to see these two rookies tied together. It could have the makings of a great rivalry heading forward, especially if it starts this year on the too-early-to-watch Chase bubble.

Two Below the Line

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. fell three spots from 14th to 17th in the driver standings.

Before the Martinsville race, he told Michael Waltrip during the unendurable Grid Walk that the Paperclip wasn’t his best track. Losing only three spots in the standings was a victory unto itself.

Now, he heads to Texas where his best finish is 15th. Texas Motor Speedway, like Martinsville, isn’t one of RSJ’s better tracks.

Kasey Kahne

Kasey Kahne qualified on the front row at Martinsville, and it took only a few laps before he sunk like a rock. He would finish 22nd.

This No. 5 team is hard to figure out. It has the resources and a driver capable of winning, yet it can’t contend.

Fortunately for Kahne, he heads to a track where he won back in 2006 for Ray Evernham. That time he won the pole and then the race, so if Kahne can qualify well (average start 12.7), maybe he can muster a top-10 finished and some much-needed momentum.

Biggest Movers

Steve Helber/Associated Press

Biggest Climb

A.J. Allmendinger, Up Seven

In the most heartfelt moment of the young season, A.J. Allmendinger proved he could hang with the big dogs at Martinsville.

“I passed Jimmie Johnson like five times at Martinsville,” Allmendinger said during the broadcast. “That’s pretty cool. I had a shot at Kyle Busch.”

Maybe he shouldn’t have punted the No. 18 cowboy hat (worn by M. Waltrip during the Grid Walk) like it was 4th-and-long???

Hearing that kind of energy and borderline naivete was refreshing, since most drivers who are interviewed after a race are thus interviewed because they so routinely figure in the top 10.

You got the sense that this meant something to Allmendinger in the same way it rarely means much for Carl Edwards to finish sixth (though that was impressive all the same).

Hopefully, Allmendinger can find enough speed at the unorthodox tracks and reach the Chase again like he did in 2014.

Biggest Fall

Aric Almirola, Down Nine

Aric Almirola suffered the biggest nosedive of the weekend when his No. 43 Ford engine quit on him.

Almirola completed 206 of the 500 laps to finish dead last on the afternoon.

Lucky for him, Richmond comes up soon. Last year’s 26th race saw him make giant strides up the leaderboard in an effort to make the Chase.

He fell short, but that sort of confidence should carry over soon for Almirola.

Biggest Storylines

Mike Stone/Associated Press

Will Joey Logano Find the Speed at Texas?

Joey Logano has been good but not great in 2016. That could change at Texas.

In 2014, he won the spring race by leading 108 laps. A late pit call by Todd Gordon gave Logano the teeth to take the final green-white-checkered restart over Jeff Gordon.

Logano sits in fifth in the driver standings to date, but he doesn’t feel like that dominant player he was a year ago. The balance of his cars has put him in inopportune spots.

Still, he’s a championship contender and eventually will get his win and his Chase ticket. Texas could be a good start toward that.

Will Dale Earnhardt Jr. Ever Win Again at Texas?

Pop quiz: When was the last time Dale Earnhardt Jr. won at Texas Motor Speedway? Hint: His dad was still alive.

It was the spring race of the 2000, back when the No. 8 car sported Budweiser red for DEI.

Junior has four top sixes in four of his past five trips to Texas, but he hasn’t led a lap since the 2011 spring race. For one reason or another, this track does not appeal to the No. 88 team.

For now, Junior sits 11th in the driver standings—not particularly threatening, just biding his time.

Will Jimmie Johnson Continue His Early-Season Dominance?

Jimmie Johnson will be the favorite heading to Texas. He swept the two races in 2015, and if you go back to the fall race in 2012, he has won five of the past times races at TMS.

Johnson said in Drew Davison’s Star-Telegram story:

"

Texas is one of the tracks with an older surface on it and it just fits for me. That’s really it. The longer the race, the more adjustments that need to be made … I’ve always thought a big thing has been our ability to communicate and talk through what I’m feeling and where we think things are going to go and making the right adjustments.

Those are really the races where I shine and the 48 shines.

"

Johnson owns the all-time wins record at Texas (six) and looks to pad that number Saturday night.

Dark-Horse Pick: Austin Dillon

Associated Press

After Kyle Larson finished third at Martinsville, you’d think he’d earn his spot back as the resident dark-horse pick.

But no.

It goes to Austin Dillon this week, the Richard Childress driver who sits seventh in the driver standings after an improbable fourth-place effort at Martinsville.

Dillon had his best finish at Texas in the fall race a year ago (11th), and the way he’s driving his car (despite periodic tantrums) suggests his first Cup win could come in 2016.

And the Winner Is...Jimmie Johnson

Steve Helber/Associated Press

There are more drivers desperate for a win this year (Logano, Matt Kenseth), but can they eclipse what Johnson has done since 2012 at this track?

Not this night.

Six wins and five since 2012? What say you, NBC NASCAR analyst Jeff Burton?

“It’s hard to do that at Texas,” he said in Drew Davison’s Star-Telegram story.

C’mon, you gotta give us a little more.

“The track is always changing and that’s why you’ve seen so many different winners come through there. So Jimmie and [his crew chief Chad Knaus] just do a heck of a job adapting to whatever the situation is,” Burton said.

So just like Dover, until someone can usurp that dominance, it’s futile to pick against the six-time Cup champion and the six-time Texas winner.

Stats came from Racing-Reference.info.