Pacquiao vs. Bradley: Odds and Round-by-Round Predictions for Saturday's Fight
Ladies and gentlemen, we give you Bob Arum.
OK, sure. We know Saturday’s marquee indicates a third go-round in a would-be rivalry between Manny Pacquiao and Timothy Bradley. However, given the consensus one-sided nature of the first two bouts, you have to hand it to the Top Rank consigliere for promoting another round of pay-per-view relevance.
“This is a different Timothy Bradley under the aegis of Teddy Atlas,” Arum said at the official fight announcement in December. “This is not me just saying that. The Bradley that fought Rios, whatever you thought about Rios, was a different fighter. It's still Bradley, but a new Bradley with Teddy. And at this point of his career, can Manny handle that? Remember, Manny is also coming off an injury.”
And there, in a mere 61 words, we have a hook.
Thanks to the corner work of Atlas, a nine-round battering of the spent husk of Brandon Rios has been elevated to a Canastota-worthy accomplishment for Bradley. Meanwhile, Pacquiao, whose balky shoulder was first considered grounds for a rematch with Floyd Mayweather Jr., is now being sold as just damaged enough to believe a guy he’s whipped twice might have a chance to level the playing field.
Still, regardless of who wins Round 3, neither will be a champion.
Though Pacquiao handed the WBO welterweight title to Bradley in June 2012 before getting it back 22 months later, the only hardware up for grabs this time is the same organization’s dubious International title. That’s because Bradley—who recaptured the full-fledged title after Mayweather was stripped—was quickly forced to surrender it when he chose the third Pacquiao fight over a date with Sadam Ali.
Ali, incidentally, got his shot last month, and was dumped in nine rounds by Jessie Vargas.
And as for the WBO, its president, Paco Valcarcel, insists there are no hard feelings.
He replied to Bradley’s abdication by promising a “special” trinket to Saturday’s winner.
“Do know that we wholly understand your decision and commend you for always giving fans the best fights possible and doing what is best for your career at this important juncture,” Valcarcel wrote. “You have been an outstanding, honorable and loyal WBO junior welterweight and welterweight champion of the world and the doors of the WBO will always be open for you. Finally, I am pleased to inform you that we are preparing a special recognition for the Pacquiao vs. Bradley III winner—two remarkable fighters and worthy ambassadors to the WBO. Wishing you all the best.”
So, at least there’s that.
Date: Saturday, April 9, 2016
Time: HBO PPV starts at 9 p.m. ET; main event after 11 p.m. ET
Venue: MGM Grand in Las Vegas
Odds: Pacquiao (-225), Bradley (+190)
Note: Odds provided by Odds Shark and are correct as of Sunday at 10 p.m. ET; subject to change.
Rounds 1-3: Third Chapter, New Beginning
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Official record books notwithstanding, a lot of people believe Bradley’s lost at least 18 of 24 rounds across two meetings with Pacquiao, which means he’ll need to do something different.
Atlas, as Arum said, will indeed have a blueprint in mind, but it won’t be the blood-and-guts schematic that Bradley has intermittently adopted since going to battle with Ruslan Provodnikov in 2013.
He’ll start fast this time not through the nonstop aggression that plays into the Filipino’s hands, but instead by utilizing speed and athleticism to frustrate and potshot a man four months into age 37.
Score After Three Rounds: 29-28 Bradley
Rounds 4-6: Fighting the Way He Knows How
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Across the ring from Atlas, Pacquiao’s own perennially awarded trainer, Freddie Roach, senses what his man needs in order to have a successful would-be swan song.
Pacquiao will step on the gas hard to begin the fight’s second quarter, winging left hands that might not have the concussive sting they once had—but still provide enough snap to prompt oohs from the fans and ahs from the judges.
The older man will fight in spurts and have his best success when he can get Bradley to set aside his better judgement and engage. But when he’s unable to do that, he’ll look his age.
Score After Six Rounds: 57-57 Even
Rounds 7-9: Into the Fire, Sort of
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If the first six rounds illustrate anything, it’s that while the “we’re firemen, we run to the flames” exhortations may boost Atlas’ profile, they don’t always have a place in Bradley’s career plan.
Bradley will thrive as the fight enters the second half when he’s able to control the emotions and win exchanges by starting and finishing them—not by being goaded into a firefight and taking three shots to give three back.
The opponent with whom Pacquiao has had the most trouble throughout his career, Juan Manuel Marquez, was certainly equipped for hardcore warfare, but bamboozled his foe the most because he was able to exploit the fundamental gaps that Pac-Man provided. Bradley will thrive likewise.
Score After Nine Rounds: 86-85 Bradley
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Rounds 10-12: A Finishing Kick
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A round on the scorecards, particularly with these two, is by no means a reason to go into a prevent defense. But if Bradley wants to stay on top through the homestretch, he’ll have to stay strategic.
The lapses in fundamentals mentioned earlier may become more pronounced if Pacquiao feels like he’s behind, too, which means boring might be even more advantageous for Atlas and his new charge.
That said, Pacquiao hasn’t won sanctioning body titles in seven divisions for nothing, so he’ll have a finishing charge for Bradley to contend with. But assuming Desert Storm isn’t completely gassed out—which he claims a past vegan regimen might have been responsible for—he’ll ride it out.
Score After 12 Rounds: 115-113 Bradley
Final Wrap
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So there you have it—the winner and new WBO International champion.
And almost as soon as Michael Buffer gets the words out of his mouth, the discussion will begin over what comes next.
The WBO will suggest Bradley can return to full prominence with a rematch against its champion, Vargas, while the fighter will put himself in the company of welterweight names like Danny Garcia, Kell Brook and Keith Thurman—and even middleweight monster Gennady Golovkin.
“Don't nobody want to fight Triple-G,” he told CBSSports.com. “Yeah, he's a beast, he's an animal. But sh-t, I'm a man. I got balls. I'm a man, I got balls and I got skills. I'll get in there with that big old dude.”
Meanwhile, for Pacquiao, though the Bradley fight has been labeled a career finale, it's no gimme.
"The last thing I want to do is make a comeback," he told Bleacher Report. "I want to be sure that boxing is completely out of my system when I hang up my gloves. In my mind, this could be my last fight. I want to spend more time with my family and in public service."
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
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