Masters 2016: The Top 10 Storylines Heading into Augusta National
This 2016 Masters field feels about as deep as any in recent memory. Maybe as many as 20 different players could win this tournament and it wouldn’t be a surprise.
Some golfers enter Georgia magnesium-hot (Jason Day, Adam Scott), while others are a bit cool to the touch and in need of a defrost cycle in the above-oven microwave (Jordan Spieth).
Of course, this lends itself to some scintillating storylines seasoned with Georgia peaches, peanuts and pecans.
Will Spieth win two in a row? Or can Bubba Watson win his third green jacket? Will Phil Mickelson claim a fantastic fourth?
Storylines abound, so let’s get to it and tee up this red-striped driving-range golf ball and get going with this green-jacketed slider.
Tiger Woods Skips the Masters Again
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To play or not to play?
Tiger Woods playing or not playing is always a storyline, so his choice—and in my opinion the right one—to skip the Masters for the second time in three years doesn’t move the needle on the surprise-o-meter.
Most athletes see a slow degradation of their skills over time, but Woods’ falloff looks like the stock market graph circa 2008.
Hindsight being what it is, he should have skipped all of last year, honed that new swing pattern and kept working on strengthening his now brittle body.
Per his official website, Woods said:
"I've said all along that this time I need to be cautious and do what's best for my long-term health and career. Unfortunately, playing Augusta next week wouldn't be the right decision. I'm absolutely making progress, and I'm really happy with how far I've come, but I still have no timetable to return to competitive golf.
"
In reality, Woods may have one more magical major left in that 40-year-old body. Similar to the way Jack Nicklaus won the 1986 Masters to rack up No. 18 may be how the former world No. 1 earns No. 15.
“So at some point,” wrote Bob Harig of ESPN, “Woods will need to jump back into the fire of competition, where expectations should be low but reality suggests every single shot and hole will be analyzed. That process will be daunting enough.”
Who would have thought we would look at Woods’ career and think what could have been?
Rory McIlroy Takes Second Crack at Career Grand Slam
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A year ago the prevailing storyline heading into Augusta was Rory McIlory’s pursuit of the career Grand Slam.
He had just come off winning The Open Championship and PGA Championship in 2014. At the golf cocktail party, he was the person people flocked to.
Then along came Jordan Spieth and buried what was a fantastic Masters performance for R-Mac. He finished alone in fourth thanks to a tepid Thursday and Friday, while the Texan gunned out of the blocks.
Ewan Murray of the Guardian believes McIlroy can enter the Masters in the shadows, the light currently dominated by Spieth and Jason Day. The Masters has a way of piling on the Flavor of the Month.
In the article, McIlroy said:
"I’m going in there with the same objective, same mindset and trying to achieve the same thing. I don’t think it makes much of a difference at all, whether I’m going in there and being talked about or if I’m not, because I’m still feeling the same things that I’m thinking about.
Maybe I’m putting pressure on myself, but I know what it would mean to me and I know what it would mean to my career [to win].
"
So while Spieth aims at a defense and Day looks for major No. 2, the golfer who has won more majors than the two of them combined lurks, unassuming on Magnolia Lane.
Adam Scott, Unanchored*
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The PGA Tour said nein to anchored putters and Adam Scott be like "I don’t give a cuss" and then went on to win the Honda Classic and a WGC event at Doral.
McIlroy believes he knows the kryptonite to make Scott human again.
“I think we should bring the anchor putting back,” said McIlroy, per Steve DiMeglio of USA Today. “I was all for getting rid of it. Now I’m all for keeping it.”
Scott has not seen a drop off in performance. The Australian didn’t win a single PGA Tour event in 2015. He didn’t even earn a single top five.
That was a year that saw him go back and forth between putters. The new rule was addition by subtraction. It made the decision for Scott and now look at him.
“I feel really, really good over (the ball when putting),” said Scott. “I’ve made a lot of putts, and I’ve made a couple crucial putts, which is nice, obviously, to kind of have it tested with a six-or-so-footer on the last one at Doral the other week for the win. That brings a lot of confidence.”
A confident Scott, one no longer seesawing between putters, is a dangerous Scott. Australia has pocket aces heading to the Masters in 2016.
*Has to be the title for the unauthorized Adam Scott biography, right?
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Bubba Watson Shoulders Many Burdens
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60 Minutes aired a profile on Bubba Watson, the two-time Masters champion, and in that piece the Floridian discussed his anxiety around people he doesn’t know strangers.
On its surface, this is amazing, given that galleries of golf fans routinely line up along fairways for upwards of 100 yards and 10 yards deep.
“Making the shots and the putts is the easy part for two-time Masters champ Bubba Watson,” said the 60 Minutes press release (h/t Golf.com). “It’s making his way through the crowds of strangers on the course that presents the toughest challenge for this often controversial PGA star."
This is merely another layer of the fragrant onion of Watson being pulled back. It makes his Masters wins in 2012 and 2014 all the more impressive, how he can create these fortresses of solitudes from the smothering gallery.
This is his year, right? Following this pattern he should win the Masters in 2016, 2018 and 2020.
Will Dustin Johnson Put It All Together?
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Several golfers search for that breakthrough major. Some are in the final act of their careers, while some are in Act II.
Dustin Johnson, a winner of nine tournaments, is in Act II and has come dangerously close to winning his first major. Will this year be the year?
Kevin Casey of GolfWeek.com said:
"Johnson’s recent Masters results have shown he’s started to figure out Augusta, too, with a T-13 and a T-6 in his last three starts there. It makes sense: Augusta has always favored long, high-ball hitters, and yeah, Johnson certainly falls under that profile. Some may be wary here because of the importance heaped on putting at Augusta, but with how much that course tests every facet of the game, performance on the greens has always been overrated there. And DJ’s a better putter than most people think anyway.
"
For Johnson it always comes down to four-day focus. He’s brilliant in the short term, but we’ve seen lapses from him that cost him tournaments.
He’s almost painfully droll and even-keeled, but often to the point of complacency.
Should he figure that out and find a way to stitch together three-and-a-half to four full rounds of the golf he’s capable of, then yes, he’s every bit as live as the Big Three.
Will Rickie Fowler Be 2016's Jordan Spieth?
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What does that even mean?
Everybody knew who Spieth was in 2015, but nobody knew he was capable of nearly winning all four majors in given year, at 21-years-old no less.
In my opinion, when Fowler wins a major, he’s going to win them in bunches much like Spieth did.
In 2014, the Californian finished in the top five in all four majors. He performed well in 2015, but also added a win in the unofficial fifth major at The Players Championship.
Allen Etzler of Golfweek.com said:
"This is where we see Rickie Fowler grab his first major title and officially become part of what will be the “Big Four.” Has played well in the last two Masters tournaments, already has four top 10s in 2016, and nearly won in Phoenix. I think it’s important for players to learn how to lose in those situations before they can win, and that was Fowler’s loss. His press conference afterward made you want to root for the guy and what better place for his family to see him win than at Augusta?
"
In the Phoenix Open, Fowler dropped two shots at the pool and lost the playoff to Hideki Matsuyama. It hurt the 27-year-old, but like Etzler said, sometimes these types of losses build scar tissue that strengthens an athlete’s resolve.
Should Fowler win, there’s little stopping him from winning another this year.
Is Henrik Stenson This Generation's Monty?
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Can a golfer still be considered great without winning a major?
Is Colin Montgomerie no less great because he never won a major? Are Todd Hamilton and Rich Beam all-timers because they did win one?
It’s a gray area in the golf landscape. Henrik Stenson is a great player with a FedEx Cup in his trophy case and four wins and $21 million on the PGA Tour, but has his time passed where he can win any of the four tournaments that matter in a golfer’s individual narrative?
Ryan Andrade of ProGolfNow.com wrote:
"The only issue with Stenson is his putting. It is so hard to trust. It’s nothing new either, he has struggled with it his entire career. Stenson has to be one of the worst putters inside of 5 feet I have ever seen. You see him hit brilliant approach shots and just waste them with his putter.
"
Augusta National Golf Club isn’t Stenson’s best course.
If he wins that major it’ll likely be The Open Championship, but time is running out for the 40-year-old.
For Stenson, he may never win a major, all the more frustrating to see a world-class talent fail to put it all together.
Will Jason Day Buck the Trend?
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What’s so unthinkable about Jason Day winning at Augusta?
Only two players (Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods) have won the Masters after winning their previous two tournaments. Day has won his previous tournaments. Will he buck that trend?
Per RTE.ie, two-time U.S. Open winner Curtis Strange said:
"You wonder how long it will last. He's not thinking like that. He's doing everything he can possibly do to keep this going through next week, and I'd much rather be in a position where people are saying can it last, versus trying to find something. I'd rather be in Jason Day's position than Jordan Spieth's position right now.
Jason is incredibly streaky. We saw that last year. But really it's a streak continuing from last year to this year. He seems to have figured it out.
"
Day is in a similar position that Spieth occupied a year ago. The U.S. youngster roared into the Masters in 2015 on the back of three straight finishes of second or better, and he carried that momentum into Thursday.
Day has the capacity to get out in front and lead this thing from the first two days. What he can’t do is play flat golf the way McIlroy did in 2015. If he can be around seven- to eight-under by Saturday, watch out for the Australian.
Look out for Lefty
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Phil Mickelson has three green jackets of varied tailoring, one presumes, and at 45 years of age, he is playing better golf now than he has over the past three years.
This year he’s got three top fives, and he’s driving the ball far better.
Per Tom Smith of the Kansas City Star, Mickelson said:
"The game’s starting to be instinctive. I think that’s probably the best way to say it, where I don’t have to think about the technique or the mechanics of anything. I just kind of look and react. And when I’m playing well, golf is an instinctive sport. I look, I see the shot I want to hit, I feel the shot I want to hit and then I just execute.
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That could be great or that could be Phil being Phil hitting the ball to and through hospitality tents.
At this point in his career, it’s all about majors and letting it fly. He has five majors to his credit.
Now it’s about padding his Hall of Fame resume and, as he said, being instinctive, a live-and-die-by-the-sword sentiment.
Is Jordan Spieth in a Position to Repeat?
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Jordan Spieth isn’t as sharp as he was last year when he was the super-talented golfer with all the potential in the world, who then became the super-talented golfer with the realized potential after four historic days in April.
Per Doug Ferguson of the Associated Press (h/t PGA.com), Spieth said:
"I think I have a high golf IQ, sure. I think what that means is I'm able to dissect different situations, different lies, winds and where pins are. Not only judging the distance, but judging — based on our knowledge of the golf course — the appropriate spot where to miss is and how to make par from there.
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In 2015, if anything, it appeared Spieth may have played at too high a level for too long. Had his candle flamed out before he even reached Augusta for his second trip around the course? Well, he sprinted out of the gate like Usain Bolt and sustained it like American Pharoah.
This year he has spun his tires heading into the Masters. Where he had four top fives from five previous tournaments in 2015, he’s got one top 10 heading into this week.
Spieth could be in trouble this year. Then again he may be reserving his brain cycles for the grind around Augusta.
Discounting him at the Masters seems like a fool’s errand.
Stats came courtesy of PGATour.com.
The comment section is for you. Have at it. Want to reach out to me you can email me or ping me @BrendanOMeara.
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