Marcus Paige Will Be the Key to a North Carolina Victory on Saturday

North Carolina’s Brice Johnson, one of the best players in the NCAA tournament this year, will be the center of attention when the Tar Heels take on Syracuse this weekend. But his fellow senior, Marcus Paige, will be the one who determines the outcome of the game.

While Paige has been inconsistent throughout the tournament, the Tar Heels are most dangerous when he plays well.

His best game of the tournament powered UNC’s most dominant offensive performance. He had 21 points and was 6-of-9 from three-point range, including hitting four in the first half, when the Tar Heels beat Indiana 101-86 in the Sweet 16.

Against Syracuse, they will need him to be at his best again.

He didn't play well against Orange during the regular season. He had a combined nine points on 3-of-18 shooting in the Tar Heels’ two games against Syracuse in conference play, but UNC managed wins in both of those games anyway.

This weekend may be a different story. The Orange are playing their best basketball of the season right now. Their zone defense has been smothering opposing offenses. They’ve held each of their last three opponents in the tournament below their season averages in scoring.

The 2-3 zone makes it difficult to get clean looks in the paint, and Johnson operates mostly around the rim. The maze of bodies that the zone creates in the paint will restrict the space he has to work.

Paige will be key if UNC hopes to counter that. He has the ability to weave into the paint and draw a second defender. That rotation will often give him an opening to thread a pass to Johnson on the back side.

If Paige can't get into the paint, the Orange will be able to swarm Johnson and stop UNC’s offensive flow. Paige needs to make that strategy impossible.

One of the goals of the Syracuse scheme is to force opponents to settle for outside jumpers, which UNC isn’t great at converting. The Tar Heels are tied for No. 306 in the country in three-point percentage (.314).

Paige will be pivotal if UNC hopes to break down the Syracuse defense. He’s the program’s all-time leader in made three-pointers and one of the few competent outside shooters on this year’s squad.

The Orange zone will be far less effective if he’s hitting threes. Syracuse will have to play closer defense on him on the perimeter, which will open space inside the arc for his teammates to get the ball.

The easiest way for the Tar Heels to neutralize the Orange’s defensive strategy will be to attack on the fast break. The zone loses its advantages if defenders never get a chance to get set. The Tar Heels should try to push the tempo as much as possible.

The easiest looks UNC will get are layups and open jumpers in transition. Paige should be leaking out after every Syracuse miss, trying to get those looks.

It’s hard to know what to expect from Paige against the Orange, given how up-and-down he’s been throughout the tournament. Outside of the Indiana game, he is averaging 11.7 points and shooting 10-of-29 from the field in UNC’s three other contests.

If he doesn’t play well, the Tar Heels offense could stagnate, and the style of the game will become exactly what Syracuse wants. A high-scoring game favors UNC, which is the more talented team in this matchup. Paige will be key in creating that kind of game.