Predicting the Biggest Regrets of the 2016 NFL Draft
The 2016 NFL draft is now less than a month away. Of course, if you're any sort of diehard football fan, you're well aware of this.
The football media world has been preparing for this upcoming draft since the end of the 2015 draft, and draft predictions have been flying around for just as long. Pretty much everyone has fabricated at least one mock draft by this point—and we're sure you'll find plenty of similarities among the eight million or so mocks floating around the Internet.
We're not here today to predict draft picks, though—well, not in the traditional sense. Instead, we're here to try to predict which moves that might be made at the end of this month that teams will wind up seriously regretting.
We're playing in hypotheticals here, so try to keep an open mind and a half-sarcastic smile while reading.
While we are going to have a little fun today, we're still going to try to keep our predictions grounded in the realm of reality. Instead of grasping at the outlandish (we're not pegging any team for a first-round kicker here), we're going to look at realistic scenarios that could fail due to team or scheme fit, coaching conflict, roster quality or pure poor evaluation.
Have you ever discussed a past selection, only to hear the phrase "Yeah, but where were the people saying that before the draft?"
Well, we're going to be those people today—and hey, if we can correctly predict one or two future regrets, our batting average will be about as good as that of the millions of mock drafts we were talking about earlier.
49ers Pass on a Quarterback in Round 1
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New head coach Chip Kelly and the rest of the San Francisco 49ers brass are going to have to decide between now and the end of the month what, exactly, to do at the quarterback position.
Right now, the team has Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick under contract, both of whom started games in 2015. There had been rumors that the team could release Kaepernick, but that isn't going to happen now that his 2016 base salary of nearly $12 million has become fully guaranteed.
"Our intent was for him to be back and to go to work...the more important thing is what our expectations are of the player," general manager Trent Baalke said, per Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com. "He's under contract, and unless—or until that changes—our expectations don't change."
The 49ers could still trade Kaepernick between now and the draft, but if they don't, there's a reasonable chance Kelly will want to see what he can squeeze out of the Nevada product in his uptempo offense. If this is the case, the 49ers may bypass the position with their current first-round selection, No. 7 overall.
Such a decision could come back to bite San Francisco in the behind.
We have to face the reality that winning in the NFL without an upper-echelon quarterback is difficult. The Denver Broncos managed to do so this past season, but Denver constructed a team that was talented all across the board. This is not the type of team the 49ers have.
With the seventh overall pick, the 49ers have an opportunity to add a guy with top-tier potential to the quarterback position. There's a strong chance that California's Jared Goff or North Dakota State's Carson Wentz will be sitting there for San Francisco to pluck.
If the 49ers pass and then spend the next couple of seasons mired in quarterback purgatory, they'll definitely regret the decision.
Teams Undervalue WR Michael Thomas
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Right now, Ohio State wide receiver Michael Thomas isn't even close to being in the conversation as the best receiver available in this year's draft—unless you're having a conversation with Bleacher Report draft expert Matt Miller or teams in the AFC North.
"The AFC North has taken notice of Ohio State wide receiver Michael Thomas," Miller recently wrote. "I’m told by sources with the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals that the former Buckeye ranks as the top receiver on both of their draft boards."
The two Ohio teams could be onto something here. There's no question that they've probably gotten a closer look at Thomas than the other 30 NFL franchises to this point.
Miller's latest big board has Thomas as the top wide receiver and the 13th-best player overall.
There is certainly a lot to like about Thomas as a prospect. He has ideal size (6'3", 212 lbs) for the receiver position, and he is physical, has good hands and is an improving route-runner. His speed (he ran a 4.57-second 40 at the combine) is more than adequate for the position.
However, teams don't seem to be high on Thomas because of his less than impressive 2015 statistics. He hauled in 56 passes but only produced 781 yards and nine touchdowns. Mississippi receiver Laquon Treadwell, by comparison, finished the year with 82 receptions, 1,153 yards and 11 scores.
Of course, it's easy to forget that the Buckeyes offense operated with no sense of consistency at the quarterback position in 2015. Were Thomas playing in a more open offense with a top-tier signal-caller at the helm, his numbers would almost certainly be eye-popping.
If the Bengals aren't sold enough to pull the trigger at No. 24 overall and the Browns don't grab him at No. 32, there's a real chance that Thomas ends up falling to the middle of the second round. If this happens and Thomas goes on to be one of the best receivers in the draft class, a whole lot of teams will be kicking themselves.
Browns Draft the Wrong Quarterback
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The Cleveland Browns have been a complete mess since their return to the NFL as an expansion team in 1999. The biggest reason is that franchise has repeatedly tried and failed to find a top-tier signal-caller.
A total of 24 quarterbacks have started games in Cleveland since the franchise's return, and no one has found any real success. The Browns have tried to go the free-agent route and have tried their luck in the draft with no success.
In the first round alone, Cleveland has drafted the likes of Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden and Johnny Manziel. Its latest free-agent acquisition, Robert Griffin III, is another first-round disappointment, though Cleveland can't take any blame for mishandling him—at least not yet.
The Browns gave Griffin a reasonable two-year, $15 million deal, which suggests he'll at least get to compete for the starting job. This could dissuade the Browns from using the pick they currently own, second overall, on a new quarterback.
Still, we expect the Browns to select a quarterback at some point in the draft. There are a lot of enticing options to be had in the first round and beyond. There is a large group of quarterbacks—including North Dakota State's Carson Wentz, California's Jared Goff, Memphis' Paxton Lynch, Michigan State's Connor Cook, Ohio State's Cardale Jones and Penn State's Christian Hackenberg—and one or two of them are bound to have success at the pro level.
Based on this franchise's recent history, however, the chances are that the Browns won't select one of those successful guys. After all, this is the team that spent $100,000 on a study in 2014, only to ignore the results. The results pointed the team toward Teddy Bridgewater, but the Browns drafted Manziel.
Former head coach Mike Pettine stressed the idea of "playing like a Brown." If "drafting like a Brown" is a thing, Cleveland needs to find a new avenue.
This could be the year that things change in Cleveland, of course. However, there's a greater chance that in a couple of years, the Browns will regret drafting the guy they did and passing on at least one of the guys they didn't.
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Teams Allow the Panthers to Snag Derrick Henry
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According to NFL Media's Chase Goodbread, Alabama running back Derrick Henry has already met with the NFC champion Carolina Panthers this offseason. The Panthers hold the 30th overall selection and could view Henry as the best player available at that point. It would be no surprise to see general manager Dave Gettleman pull the trigger.
David Newton of ESPN.com recently explained:
"Gettleman is committed to taking the best player available in the first round, so his board is wide-open. He selected a wide receiver in the first and second rounds the past two seasons to beef up at that position. Carolina hasn't taken a running back in the first round since Stewart in 2008. That NFL teams are allowed only 30 pre-draft visits and the Panthers are using one on Henry shows there is interest. Gettleman doesn't take those visits lightly.
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To the 29 teams picking in front of Carolina, we'll say this: don't let it happen.
"Writing up Derrick Henry, and I understand why so many love him," Bleacher Report draft expert Matt Miller recently stated on Twitter, "Tough to overlook lack of agility/foot speed but he's a nightmare downhill."
Adding the tough-to-tackle Henry to the Carolina offense would create a nightmare scenario for opposing defenses. We're talking about a Carolina offense that finished the 2015 season ranked first in scoring (31.2 points per game) and second in rushing (142.6 yards per game). This is an offense that already boasts the difficult-to-defend Cam Newton at quarterback.
Oh, and this is an offense that will get wideout Kelvin Benjamin back after losing him for a year to injury.
Do other teams really want to allow the Panthers offense to get its hands on a 6'3", 247-pound ball-carrying freight train? Our guess is no.
Titans Select Laremy Tunsil First Overall
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The Tennessee Titans have a need to protect potential franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota. Mississippi offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil appears to be the consensus top option at the tackle position. Naturally, he is the safe and sensible pick for Tennessee at No. 1 overall.
Here's the problem—safe and sensible doesn't always make for the best selection. The Kansas City Chiefs selected Eric Fisher first overall in 2013, and he is just now beginning to live up to his potential—Pro Football Focus rated him 39th overall among tackles for the 2015 season.
Plus, we're not even sure "safe" is the right word to describe Tunsil. The guy already has one serious leg injury on his resume and was suspended seven games this past season for receiving improper benefits and for not cooperating with investigators. These are not massive red flags, but they have to be considered when selecting the first player in the draft.
However, our main reason for believing the Titans could end up regretting Tunsil at No. 1 overall is the options the team would be passing on.
The option that leaps to the forefront here is a trade down, allowing another team—perhaps the Philadelphia Eagles—to jump in front of the Cleveland Browns to select a quarterback. The Titans might miss out on Tunsil in this scenario, but a starting-caliber tackle like Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley should be available.
The Titans are a rebuilding team, and adding, say, a pair of third-round picks and a future No. 1 would go a long way toward fueling that rebuild.
By selecting Tunsil, the Titans would also pass up the opportunity to grab a game-changing defender such as Florida State defensive back Jalen Ramsey or Ohio State pass-rusher Joey Bosa. This draft is heavy on defensive talent, and these two guys are potential future stars. Is it really worth passing on them to add a second good offensive tackle?
Let's not forget that Taylor Lewan, who is entering just his third season, played well last year at left tackle. Pro Football Focus rated him 11th overall among left tackles for the season. Adding Tunsil wouldn't even fill one of the bigger holes on the roster.
Too Many Teams Pass on Braxton Miller
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Ohio State's Braxton Miller made the decision this past season to move from quarterback to H-back/receiver. The decision appears to have been a wise one, as he showed a lot of promise in his new role in 2015. He finished the year with 26 receptions, 42 carries, 601 combined yards and four total touchdowns.
That's not too shabby for a guy at a new position.
Miller has the natural size (6'1", 201 lbs) and speed (ran a 4.5-second 40 at the combine) to be an NFL wide receiver and has the quickness and small-space agility to excel at the position. His 6.65-second three-cone drill time was one of the best at this year's combine.
The drawback is that Miller is raw and doesn't have a lot of production as a pass-catcher on his resume. This is going to cause several teams to bump him down their draft boards in favor of more polished receivers.
This could be a major mistake.
Miller has the tools and, more importantly, the willingness and work ethic to be a star at the NFL level.
"Miller did show a willingness to learn at the Senior Bowl," NFL Media's Adam Rank recently wrote. "And [he] drew raves from the coaches who worked with him. NFL coaches got a firsthand look at how impressive he is as an athlete and he was truly one of the stars of Senior Bowl week."
If Miller does become a stud playmaker as a pro, all the teams that passed on him are going to regret not putting his potential into proper perspective. This will be especially true if Miller falls to a perennial contender like the New England Patriots—because they really need another former-college-quarterback-turned-stud-receiver on their roster.
Chargers Pass on Joey Bosa
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The San Diego Chargers should have a handful of viable options with their third overall pick. Depending on how the first two selections unfold, the Chargers could well be deciding between adding a top-tier cornerback or a pass-rusher.
How does adding the best player in the draft sound to Chargers fans? If the team adds Ohio State's Joey Bosa, that's what it will get—at least according to Bosa.
"I do, I do believe I'm the best player in the draft," Bosa said, per NFL Media's Chase Goodbread. "As a top player, if you don't believe that, there's something wrong. I think (I'm) the best pass-rusher, the best defensive lineman in the country."
Bosa is definitely a talented defender who can penetrate deep in the backfield and stop plays at their point of origin. In 2015, he produced five sacks and made 16 tackles for loss.
However, there's no guarantee that San Diego will pounce on Bosa if he's available. A case could certainly be made for defensive back Jalen Ramsey if he's sitting at No. 3, and the Chargers could look at an offensive lineman or a different defender with the pick.
NFL Media's Bucky Brooks, for example, has the Chargers taking Mississippi offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil in his latest mock draft.
It wouldn't hurt to beef up the protection in front of quarterback Philip Rivers, but San Diego should be eyeing the other side of the ball if it has any hope of building an upper-echelon defense. The Chargers pass rush was virtually nonexistent in 2015.
San Diego produced just 32 sacks on the season last year and finished rated 28th overall in pass rush by Pro Football Focus.
Bosa has the potential to change the identity of the San Diego defense, and passing on him could quickly become a regrettable decision—though we're pretty sure the Dallas Cowboys would welcome the development.
Broncos Stand at 31st Overall in Round 1
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We're not sure what the quarterback position is going to look like for the Denver Broncos by the time the draft actually rolls around. According to Mike Klis of KUSA, the Broncos are still interested in trading for 49ers signal-caller Colin Kaepernick should the quarterback be willing to take a pay cut.
Right now, the team's best option is veteran Mark Sanchez, who could be a solid short-term starter but probably isn't the team's quarterback of the future.
If Denver can't acquire Kaepernick—and even if it does, really—the team could and should consider drafting a quarterback like Memphis' Paxton Lynch in Round 1. Denver's Super Bowl window should remain open for at least the next few seasons, and a guy like Lynch has the potential to be starting at a high level before that window closes.
The problem for the Broncos here is that if they want a shot at Lynch, they may well have to trade up in Round 1 to get him.
Denver is sitting with the last pick in the first round, and teams that are looking to add a quarterback near the top of Round 2 have to know a quarterback is on the Broncos' radar. Trading up with a team like the Green Bay Packers or the Kansas City Chiefs becomes a real possibility for those teams if they want Lynch—and this is assuming he is even available that deep in the opening round.
According to Rich Cimini of ESPN.com, Lynch has a predraft visit scheduled with the New York Jets, who own the 20th overall selection.
If the Jets decide to pull the trigger at No. 20, teams could quickly be positioning for the chance to grab a guy like Michigan State's Connor Cook at the end of Round 1. (I have a gut feeling we will see four quarterbacks go in Round 1, so go ahead and toss that one in the predictions file.)
If the Broncos want their quarterback of the future this year, they'll likely have to trade up to make it happen. Otherwise, Denver could regret the decision to let an otherwise elite team be hamstrung by subpar quarterback play.
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