Masters Odds 2016: Favorites to Win the Green Jacket
The 2016 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club creeps into the fray this weekend, a time signifying the true start of spring.
"The Masters is within 10 days away," Jordan Spieth, the 2015 Masters champion, said in Jason Sobel’s ESPN.com story. "Just saying that makes you just want to go out and do pushups or something. It makes you really, really excited."
He’s not alone.
And he’s not the only favorite to win at Augusta.
This is a deep, deep field. Or, if you don’t want to concede how deep it is, you’d certainly admit that the top is dense with viable talent. Jason Day. Adam Scott. Bubba Watson. Rory McIlroy. Spieth.
Go on, pick a winner.
We’ll do the next best thing. We’ll lay out the odds (courtesy of the O’Meara Betting Book) and talk about golf’s most popular major.
Henrik Stenson
1 of 10
Odds to Win: 35-1
Best Masters Finish: T14 (2014)
Season Highlights
Henrik Stenson is a big performer in the majors, just not big enough. He tops many lists as the best player without a major championship.
Stenson has three PGA Tour events in his bag in 2016, each an improving effort. He finished in a tie for 28th at the WGC-Cadillac Championship, tied for 11th at the Valspar Championship and tied for third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Why He’ll Win
Stenson is a great striker of the ball, and being, as they say, in the mix at several majors gives him a chance.
Ryan Andrade of ProGolfNow.com writes:
"It isn’t like Stenson has been far off. Nobody has played better in majors the last 8 for those who had not taken home golf’s biggest achievement. During that span Stenson recorded seven top-5’s. That included a second and third in that magical 2013 year at the Open Championship and PGA Championship.
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Stenson ranks third in strokes gained tee-to-green (1.994)—a valuable club in the bag at Augusta.
Justin Rose
2 of 10
Odds to Win: 25-1
Best Masters Finish: T2 (2015)
Season Highlights
Justin Rose finished in tie for sixth at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and in a tie for ninth at the API. Aside from that, Rose has been mediocre, especially by his standards.
So far as this season goes, the two eagles he mailed in at Bay Hill mark his big highlights of this year to date.
Why He’ll Win
So you mean to tell me Rose sits at 25-1 after the way he performed at Augusta a year ago? That’s called an overlay, people. The oddsmakers at O’Meara HQ must be fishing.
His incredible score of 14 under in 2015 is a major outlier in his Masters performances. He never shot better than five under and that was in 2011 when he finished in a tied for 11th.
Playing back to that 2015 number should make him a champion, but can we really expect that from someone who has six rounds over par in 10 trips to Augusta?
Phil Mickelson
3 of 10
Odds to Win: 35-1
Best Masters Finish: First (2004, 2006, 2010)
Season Highlights
Compared to years past, Phil Mickelson is playing well heading into the Masters. He finished in second place at Pebble Beach and fifth at Doral. Solid.
Well, Doral wasn’t exactly a great finish. He had the lead and then watched it slip away in Mickelsonian fashion.
“I don’t know what happened,” Mickelson said in Tom Spousta’s New York Times story. “Sometimes I just lose focus. I’ve been out a little early, and I maybe overdid it and got a little tired in the end and just lost my train of thought.”
Why He’ll Win
If anything, Augusta can make Mickelson find that “train of thought.”
He finished tied for second in 2015 and has 15 top 10s. And not all of those top 10s came in his prime. He has four top 10s since 2009.
For a golfer of Mickelson’s ilk, the majors are what it’s all about, and there’s no place that brings out the best in Lefty like Augusta.
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Dustin Johnson
4 of 10
Odds to Win: 20-1
Best Masters Finish: T6 (2015)
Season Highlights
Dustin Johnson, the big bomber, the man who’s No. 2 in birdie average, has three top 10s in 2016 including a solo fourth at the Northern Trust Open and a T5 at the World Golf Championships-Dell Match Play.
Why He’ll Win
There’s nary a person on tour with more pure talent than DJ. However, blasting the ball 310 yards off the tee does little if you can’t drain a three-foot putt under pressure.
You know something? He’s hard to endorse as a winner at Augusta. With an average finish of 32.2, Johnson has done little to earn that type of winning respect at this golf course.
Had he not shot 73 on Saturday last year he would have been far closer to the pace. But that’s the thing with Johnson. You never know when he’ll toss in an abominable round that will derail his chances.
Rickie Fowler
5 of 10
Odds to Win: 12-1
Best Masters Finish: T5 (2014)
Season Highlights
He’s got four top 10s in 2016 and is the hottest golfer not to win a tournament this year. Before the Match Play he had this string of finishes: P2, T6, T8.
He’s playing well at the Shell Houston Open, and that could put him on a winning vector.
“This is a good week for me to kind of check some boxes and make sure we’re ready to go for next week,” Fowler said in Will Gray’s GolfChannel.com blog. “I want to be in position to win this week, and I’m a little ways back, but a good solid round will get me back in the mix.”
Why He’ll Win
It’s only a matter of time. He’s got the game and the moxie to win big golf tournaments.
Fowler’s stats this year are out of this world. They’re too numerous and too darn good to mention. By all means get a whiff of them here.
Fowler said in David Westin’s Augusta.com story:
"I really love playing here. You get to use your imagination, it’s a ball‑striker’s golf course and you use your imagination around the greens as far as short game and putting. ... I probably started thinking about it as soon as the tournament finished last year. It’s a special place. You love going back to Augusta, everything about it.
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Other players press. Fowler never seems to press.
Adam Scott
6 of 10
Odds to Win: 10-1
Best Masters Finish: First (2013)
Season Highlights
Adam Scott has two wins on the PGA Tour this year, all this without his trusted belly, or anchored, putter. He finished in a tie for second at the Northern Trust Open, first in the Honda Classic and first at the Cadillac Championship.
Sports Illustrated Golf Group's Jeff Ritter (via Golf.com) said, “Apparently Scott just needed the Tour to ban anchored putting to finally set him free and realize his full potential. I never saw it coming, but there's no reason to think he's done racking up wins this year.”
Why He’ll Win
Few golfers are playing better than he's playing, and he has the benefit of having won the Masters in 2013.
His string of finishes from 2011 to 2013 include a T2, a T8 and a win. That kind of confidence coupled with a 1.713 putting average means he’s one of five golfers favored to win this tournament.
Rory McIlroy
7 of 10
Odds to Win: 7-1
Best Masters Finish: Fourth (2015)
Season Highlights
Rory McIlroy, golf’s darling in 2014, may be rounding into championship form.
He missed the cut at the Honda Classic, but then followed that up with a T3 at the Cadillac Championship and finished fourth at the Match Play.
Why He’ll Win
He’ll have to put those chants of winning the career Grand Slam out of his mind. He’ll have to put his head down, forget the 2011 meltdown—where he shot 80 on Sunday—all of it.
McIlroy had a great 2015 Masters. The problem was, Jordan Spieth had an epic wire-to-wire run McIlroy’s opening pair of 71s couldn’t keep pace with. What can he do?
“The attention isn’t going to go away,” Ernie Els told ESPN’s Bob Harig (h/t Brian Keogh of IrishExaminer.com). “He should just kind of roll with it. He should go with it, know it’s going to come, find a way to deal with it.”
Now making his eighth trip to Augusta National, McIlroy may have it all together to win this elusive tournament.
Bubba Watson
8 of 10
Odds to Win: 5-1
Best Masters Finish: First (2012, 2014)
Season Highlights
Bubba Watson won the Northern Trust Open and finished second to Scott in the Cadillac Championship and appears ready for another strike at a third green jacket.
Maybe the biggest season highlight will be his feature on 60 Minutes—CBS’ news magazine.
"I have a lot of mental issues...I'm just so fearful of things, which I shouldn't be," said Watson (h/t Robby Kalland of CBSSports.com). "Scared of heights...buildings falling on me...the dark. Scared of crowds. In between holes is really scary to me, because there's so many people that close to you. I'm just scared of people...in general."
Why He’ll Win
It’s his year, right?!
He won in 2012, as well as 2014, and now it’s 2016. He’ll win the Masters, and the Giants will win the World Series. This is pattern recognition at its most banal.
Scott, who beat Watson at Doral, thinks Watson is the man to beat.
"I think Bubba is [the favorite]," said Scott in Kyle Porter’s golf roundup. "Even if I won every tournament I play before the Masters, if Bubba keeps finishing second, I'd still think he's favored. It just sets up so good there for him."
Watson ranks first on the PGA Tour in greens-in-regulation percentage (75.12) and first in strokes gained tee-to-green (2.283).
He has final pairing written all over him come Sunday.
Jordan Spieth
9 of 10
Odds to Win: 4-1
Best Masters Finish: First (2015)
Season Highlights
Jordan Spieth isn’t burning it up in 2016 the way he was in 2015.
A year ago he had four top fives heading into the Masters including a playoff win in the Valspar, which started a streak that saw him finish second in the Valero Texas Open, P2 at the Shell Houston Open and then win the Masters.
This year he played in fewer pre-Masters tournaments (seven) and the ones he has played in haven’t gone so well.
Why He’ll Win
Spieth has a way of turning it on when he needs to. He did that in spades during the FedEx Cup Playoffs in 2015, and he’ll do it again for the Masters.
"Everything is exactly where it was last year,” Spieth said in Jason Sobel’s ESPN.com story. “It's right where we want it to be going into the Masters. It's just a matter now of hitting nerve-racking shots and putts before that week, which means I've got to get myself into contention this week.”
Who would doubt him?
Jason Day
10 of 10
Odds to Win: 3-1
Best Masters Finish: Third (2013)
Season Highlights
Jason Day is the golfer du jour.
With back-to-back wins at the Arnold Palmer Classic and the Match Play, fewer golfers are playing at—and maintaining—a higher degree of golf than Day.
Why He’ll Win
He got that first career major over with last season at the PGA Championship and has maintained this high level of championship golf ever since.
We all know it. Day knows it.
He said in Dave Sheinin’s Washington Post story.
"The mindset is different [now]. Knowing that I’ve been in the heat of the battle, especially more so recently, and understanding what that feels like — because everyone knows when you’re standing there on Sunday at Augusta, it’s quiet and you’re in your own little world. . . . I’m going to have a lot of fun there this year. And I feel like I’m going to play well.
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He’s the world No. 1 player (for now) and is playing loose. Winning that first major and getting on a hot streak against the world’s best has done wonders for his confidence.
He’s a worthy and deserving favorite to win his second major and first green jacket.
Stats came courtesy of PGATour.com.
Masters results came from Augusta.com.
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