Europe Prepares To Repel Tri Nation's Invaders

As the European domestic competitions continue to build, the focus is slowly switching to what is essentially the beginning of the northern hemisphere test season. For many coaches, this will constitute the genesis of their 2011 World Cup preparations.

The upcoming autumn internationals take on another dimension considering the state of the southern nations approaching. The All Blacks and Springboks will remain match fit, with their test players filtering back into their respective domestic competitions.

The Wallabies will have only one game to prepare for their Grand Slam against New Zealand in Tokyo.

The Springboks will approach the north as the best team in world, holder of every major trophy available to them, two IRB ranking points clear of the second-placed team, the All Blacks, and a massive six points clear of the third-placed Wallabies.

However, while their position on the summit of world rugby cannot be denied, one feels that the South Africans' tour to Europe may be a slight Pandora’s Box.

Their dominance displayed over the Wallabies and, in particular, the All Blacks—who they defeated 3-0—may not be so easy in the north. The British and Irish Lions looked far more formidable against the Springboks than their Tri Nations opponents did, and they will face the Six Nations champion’s Ireland, who provided a significant number to the touring Lions side.

The Irish have won their last two matches against the Springboks, who haven’t won in Dublin since 2000.

They also play France and Italy, both of whom play a largely non-frills, pragmatic style. While the Azzuri may not necessarily win, Les Bleus, buoyed by their success against the All Blacks, will feel that they may catch the Springboks on the hop in their fortress of Stade de France.

The Tri Colours at home are sitting on a three-match winning streak against South Africa, who has not won on French soil since 1997.

Finally, the South Africans have the worst recent record against the northern hemisphere away from home of all the major Southern powers. Since 2000, they have won 11 and lost 11.

If there are any lingering doubts over the legitimacy of South Africa’s claim to being the leading power in world rugby—which there should not be—then the end of year tour will be the litmus test for a Springbok side that will likely be missing Jean De Villiers (Munster), Frans Steyn (Racing Metro), and Juan Smith (injured).

The All Blacks, in theory, will be eyed off by their opponents, departing for their tour with an average (by their standards) five from nine test record this year.

Still, while there is feeling that this is not an all-powerful New Zealand team, it would be foolish to assume they are in decline.

If anything, their form and patterns this year could suggest that they have emerged from a readjustment period and could, as they did in 2004, be preparing for evolutionary change (2004 saw the All Blacks implement a flat attack strategy, which stuttered during that year’s Tri Nations, but reaped significant rewards in their end of year tour).

Their final Tri Nations match, a thumping 33-6 win over Australia, remains the biggest test victory by any SANZAR power this year, but surely if any team in Europe wishes to arrest an appalling recent record against the All Blacks, now would be the time.

Their first clash, a glamour showpiece against a fine Wales team, will see the Red Dragons try to break what is now a 56-year winning drought against a side whose potential scalp is the biggest that a Welsh player could hope to take.

They will then play Italy in Milan before travelling to Twickenham to give Martin Johnson’s men an acid test. The last time England beat New Zealand was in 2002 in London and the following year in Wellington, but this was when the red rose was at the peak of their powers.

The All Blacks sit on a seven-match winning streak against England with a lopsided 249-92 total score line from those matches. If England records just one victory during these internationals, a win against New Zealand would see many believing the side is on the right track.

The match in France promises to be a classic, with the All Blacks hungry for revenge after Les Bleus defeated them in Carisbrook this year. The last time New Zealand came to Marseille in 2000, though, they walked away 33-42 losers.

Still, under Henry—a certain match in Cardiff aside—the All Blacks have won three straight in France, including the 45-6 slaughter in Paris in 2004 and the massacre in Lyon, 47-3, in 2006.

As for the Wallabies, they will attempt to record their second ever Grand Slam.

Wooden spoon winners in the Tri Nations, they head north with woeful form, and in theory (according to their ruthless media), in complete crisis.

Still, it is a young and building team, and away from the harsh glare of national expectation as well as not having to play their two deadliest foes, they will no doubt be sharper knowing history could await.

The biggest question is whether the Wallabies, with a 13-11 record in autumn internationals since 2000, can win away from home. This modern day Achilles' heel must be overcome.

But in 70 matches away against the home nations in their history, they have won 36 (lost 32, drawn two). But while they remain third in the world rankings, realistically only Scotland could be considered anything close to a guaranteed win.

Either way, we shall know a lot more about the current world order come the beginning of December.