Predicting Which Premier League Teams Will Be Relegated in May

With Leicester City on track for a stunning Premier League title triumph, the scene at the other end of the table might not sparkle with the same novel glow. But with three clubs—or maybe four—fighting to stay out of the final two spots, the relegation battle promises to offer fireworks as well.

There is novelty, to be sure, with poor Aston Villa all but consigned to the drop after 29 years in the top flight. When the inevitable occurs, the Premier League will be down to six clubs—Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur—that have remained in the division since its inception in 1992.

But as far as Villa are concerned, the drama is surely already gone. Stuck on 16 points since the first weekend of February, the grand old club's relegation is almost certain. For the theatrics, just look (slightly) higher up the table. 

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Nine points ahead of Villa sit Newcastle in 19th place with 25 points. One point further ahead are Sunderland—their hated rivals. Norwich City are currently 17th, two points above the drop zone but with an extra game played.

And then there's Crystal Palace, high flyers for half the season but winless now since the weekend before Christmas. The Eagles are stuck on 33 points, and although that's seven more than Sunderland in the final relegation spot, the form book says Alan Pardew's men might not have another win in them.

So which two of those four will go down? Let's look at their run-ins, one-by-one.

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Crystal Palace

A mixed bag for the Eagles, who face tricky trips to in-form West Ham United, as well as Arsenal and Manchester United. Points will be at a premium in those games, and all three come before the FA Cup semi-final. In fact, the Arsenal and Man United games both fall in the week ahead of Palace's date with Watford at Wembley, meaning Pardew might rotate his squad.

But then there are matches against Norwich (April 9) and Newcastle (April 30). Winning either of those, or even drawing, would be massive in that Palace would either be putting distance between themselves and a direct relegation rival or at least maintaining it.

Also on the slate are dates with Everton (a side as inconsistent as any in the division), Stoke City and Southampton. Seven points from those three fixtures alone would put Palace on the magic number of 40 points.

Verdict: The FA Cup run might complicate matters for Pardew, but fortunately he still has a buffer with which to work. It should be enough.

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Norwich City

The Canaries grabbed three priceless points by beating West Bromwich Albion over the weekend, a result that lifted Alex Neil's side out of the drop zone, albeit with an extra game played compared to Sunderland and Newcastle. Afterward, Neil set his sights on Crystal Palace, who are now only five points ahead.

"Five points above (Norwich) with seven games to play, sometimes you can feel as if it's going swimmingly and suddenly find yourself in trouble," he said, per PA Sport (h/t Sky Sports). "Trying to reverse that around is extremely difficult. Palace haven't won in 11 games now. They'll be concerned about that and we've got them to play. The more we drag in the better."

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Neil is right about both of those last two points. The more teams that are involved in the battle, the better the odds become for Norwich. And the Canaries still have Crystal Palace—along with Newcastle and Sunderland—on the fixture list.

A crucial three-game stretch starts on April 2, when Norwich host Newcastle. The Canaries then travel south to play Palace a week later and head back to East Anglia the following Saturday to host Sunderland. All three are direct rivals, and therefore all three matches are pivotal.

After that are fixtures against Arsenal and Manchester United, both of which should be difficult. Then Norwich finish the campaign with Watford (home) and Everton (away).

Verdict: Not only are those three games pivotal, but they might also be decisive. Avoiding defeat against Newcastle and Sunderland will be critical, and both of those games are at home—which puts Neil and his team at an advantage. 

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Sunderland

Aston Villa are surely doomed—but if you've watched the table this term, you might think the same of Sunderland. After spending six straight weeks in last place near the start of the campaign, the Black Cats have lifted their heads above the drop zone for a mere three weeks all season.

So can Sam Allardyce pull off an escape? On a positive note, his side have a game in hand on Norwich, who are two points ahead. Moreover, five of the final eight games are at home, while one of the away matches is at Norwich—a direct rival.

But those home matches won't exactly be easy. After West Brom, the Black Cats will host, in order, Leicester, Arsenal, Chelsea and Everton in their final four matches at the Stadium of Light this season. The oddsmakers won't fancy Sunderland's chances in many of those encounters. 

Verdict: It might all come down to the Norwich game, which is at Carrow Road. The signs aren't good for Big Sam.

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Newcastle United

Newcastle started the season on an eight-match winless run and never quite got going after that. The sacking of Steve McClaren and arrival of Rafa Benitez might bring an uptick in optimism, but so far the change has brought only one point to St. James' Park (in two matches).

Fortunately for the Magpies (or perhaps unfortunately, depending on your outlook), two relegation six-pointers are still on the fixture list. On April 2, Benitez's men travel to Carrow Road to face Norwich, who are currently three points ahead. And on April 30, Newcastle play at Crystal Palace, who will have featured in the FA Cup semi-final six days earlier.

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(Yes, there's also the trip to Villa Park on May 7, but I'm not considering that a six-pointer since I'm assuming Aston Villa will be relegated. That said, Newcastle should expect to win that game if they are to survive, especially if Villa's relegation has already been confirmed by that time, which seems likely.)

In addition to those games, Newcastle have tricky matches against Manchester City (home), Liverpool (away) and Tottenham Hotspur (home), the last of which could be critical for Spurs if they're still in the title race on the final day of the season.

Also, don't overlook the home date with Swansea on April 16. The Swans have recently put some daylight between themselves and the relegation zone, but a win for Newcastle in that game could pull them back in.

Verdict, plus a prediction: Benitez was a welcome addition, but he has his work cut out for him. The Magpies do have their own fate in their hands, and now Rafa must show he can get the best out of his players in pressure-filled scenario. With his C.V., he should have the experience and know-how to do so.

So who goes down? Palace are struggling, but their points cushion should see them through—if only barely. Norwich, meanwhile, have some crucial games at home, but I just feel the arrival of Benitez, a coach with vast experience both in England and on the continent, will give Newcastle enough of a boost to avoid relegation by the slimmest of margins.

That leaves Sunderland and Norwich for the drop.