Andre Ward vs. Sullivan Barrera: Preview, Prediction for Light Heavyweight Fight
One of the top pound-for-pound boxers on the planet returns to action on Saturday night, when undefeated former super middleweight champion Andre Ward takes to the ring in his native city of Oakland, California.
His opponent, undefeated light heavyweight contender Sullivan Barrera, is a former Cuban amateur standout, hungry to stake his own claim to elite status in the sport.
Boxing fans should understand that we are looking at a special collection of talent right now in the 175-pound division. Ward vs. Barrera is the type of fight we could still be talking about decades from now.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per Boxrec | Andre Ward | Sullivan Barrera |
| Record: | 28-0, 15 KOs | 17-0, 12 KOs |
| Height: | 6'0" | 6'2" |
| Reach: | 71" | 73" |
| Weight: | 175 lbs | 175 lbs |
| Age: | 32 | 34 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Oakland, California | Miami, Florida |
| Rounds: | 194 | 70 |
This is an interesting tale of the tape. Barrera is two years older but much less experienced as a professional, a result of an extended amateur career in Cuba, before he was finally able to launch his pro career.
He fights now out of Miami and has shown real potential in a light heavyweight division that is experiencing a talent surge.
Ward is stepping up for his first true light heavyweight fight and faces a taller, longer opponent.
Main Storylines
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If this fight follows script, it will be a step on the way to a showdown between Andre Ward and Sergey Kovalev later this year, which could be a fight of historic significance.
Kovalev is the undefeated WBO, WBA and IBF light heavyweight champion. He's a human wrecking machine and one of the biggest stars in the sport.
Ward just might be the best pound-for-pound boxer in the world. Between 2009 and 2012 he marched through a murderer's row of top fighters, beating them all with stunning ease.
The problem is for almost four years he has been woefully inactive, fighting just twice against second-tier competition in Edwin Rodriguez and Paul Smith.
And there's never any guarantee that boxing will follow a script. In Sullivan Barrera, Ward is facing the best opponent he's seen in years. Barrera is physically bigger than Ward and a skilled boxer with power.
Barrera is also incredibly hungry. This is his big opportunity, and at 34, he might not see another one like it.
In 2012, Ward would have been a prohibitive favorite.
It's still tough to imagine him losing this fight. But it's also impossible not to have some serious questions going in.
Strengths
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Andre Ward is an elite technical boxer. He has great defense and highly effective offense. He is outstanding fighting at any range but is particularly dangerous in the clinch, where he does a tremendous job of keeping one arm free and jockeying his opponents into vulnerable positions.
But what really separates Ward from his peers is his ability to see openings and react to them quickly. He has a level of boxing intelligence that simply cannot be taught.
Sullivan Barrera is himself an outstanding technical boxer. He controls range and tempo well and uses his jab to set up a dangerous straight right. Unlike some former Cuban amateurs, he is willing to get inside and mix it up.
Barrera has good variety in his punch selection. He throws brutal hooks to the torso and has a jolting uppercut.
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Weaknesses
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Andre Ward has looked pretty close to flawless during his career, but he's only fought twice since 2012, and neither bout was against elite competition. Ring rust could be a concern, especially against a big, skilled puncher like Barrera, who will be looking to start quickly.
Sullivan Barrera has looked good against the opponents he's faced during his amateur career. But not a single one of those fighters has anything close to the talent of Andre Ward. Barrera has looked outstanding in a shallow swimming pool.
But against Ward, he needs to be prepared to swim in the deep, open water.
Andre Ward Will Win If...
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Andre Ward should win this fight if he's still the same fighter who cleaned out the super middleweight division between 2009 and 2012. He beat five world champions in less than three years between November 2009 and September 2012 and not one of those fights was at all close.
But three-and-a-half years is a long time in the fight game. In Sullivan Barrera, Ward will oppose the best fighter he's faced in years and the biggest ever.
Ward is going to need to be cautious in the early rounds and be prepared to survive an aggressive approach from Barrera, studying the Cuban to get a good read on him. Once Ward has a sense of Barrera's movement, he can focus on stepping inside on the longer man and putting in work.
A good combination for him to use to get inside should be the straight right to the body, then a left hook to the head. He needs to land short, compact punches to Barrera's body, before coming upstairs to the head.
In the clinch, Ward needs to focus on keeping a hand free while using his footwork to create angles for jolting uppercuts and short hooks to the chin. At the same time, he's going to need to be wary of Barrera's own uppercut, which is a good punch.
Sullivan Barrera Will Win If...
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A 34, Sullivan Barrera is no kid, even if he does have the status of a rising contender. This fight against Andre Ward is the sort of opportunity he's not likely to see again if he can't cash in on it.
So expect to see Barrera come out with a lot of self-confidence and emotion. He should look to find the range to land his straight right hand as quickly as he can. If he can hurt Ward early, he needs to double down on his aggression and look to finish it.
Footage on YouTube from 2014 shows Barrera working with middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin to master positioning in the clinch. Against Ward, we'll see how much he really learned, because that might ultimately be where Barrera wins or loses the fight.
Barrera is the bigger man in this fight and if he can do the small technical things necessary to negate Ward's work inside, he will have the physical strength to force the action back to a distance that gives him room to land his big punches.
Prediction
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Andre Ward has not lost a fight of any kind since he was in grade school. During that time, he has won an Olympic gold medal and defeated a laundry list of world champions.
So I'm not about to start picking against him now, regardless of how inactive he's been over the past several years. He's still just 32. He might have some ring rust, but overall, his physical talent should remain undiminished.
We should see some competitive early rounds. This could very well be the toughest fight of Ward's career, at least for the first six rounds. But he'll adjust and build a lead in the second half of the bout, on the way to a hard-fought, but clear, decision.
So ultimately, the path will remain open for Ward vs. Sergey Kovalev later this year, the most significant light heavyweight title fight in over a decade.
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