Preview and Predictions for the 2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational
The PGA Tour wraps up its Florida Swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando.
The 1961 Dick Wilson design plays host to a strong field of 120 golfers that includes Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Adam Scott and Henrik Stenson.
Matt Every, No. 163 golfer in the world, has surprisingly won the tournament the last two years. The fringe possibility that he’ll win three straight, a la Tiger Woods—who won four times from 2000 to 2003—is a major area of intrigue this week.
What else will golf fans want to consider and keep an eye on? Who are the favorites? The dark horses?
Click through to see.
Where to Watch
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Defending Champion: Matt Every
Where: Bay Hill Club & Lodge, 7,419 yards, par 72
What
Total Purse: $6,300,000
Winning Share: $1,134,000
FedEx Points to Winner: 500
When
Thursday-Friday: 2-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
Saturday-Sunday: 12:30-2:30 p.m. (GC), 2:30-6 p.m. (NBC)
Biggest Storylines
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So, how about the recent brilliance of Adam Scott? The tour’s strokes gained: tee-to-green leader won his last two starts (Honda Classic, WGC-Cadillac Championship). Scott returns to action after skipping last week’s Valspar Championship seeking the hat trick. He’d be the first golfer to collect three straight victories since Rory McIlroy did so in 2014.
And on the subject of Mr. McIlroy, Rory will be making his second appearance at Bay Hill, where he finished 11th last year. The Ulsterman is coming off a third-place finish at the WGC-Cadillac Championship two weeks ago. Less than a month out from the Masters, McIlroy will be looking to have his affairs in order between the ropes.
The 120-man invitational field features five of the top 10 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking. In addition to Scott and McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Justin Rose and Jason Day will all be pegging it this week. On the amateur front, U.S. Amateur Champion Bryson DeChambeau, No. 2 Am in the world Maverick McNealy and Ricardo Gouveia have been granted entry by the King.
Players are likely to be met by a gentle Bay Hill, thanks to re-grassing, which will slow fairways and greens. As PGATour.com’s Rob Bolton writes, Arnold Palmer’s Orlando course was tamed by recent renovations prior to the installation of Celebration Bermuda fairways and TifEagle Bermuda greens:
"Prior to the 2015 edition of the API, five acres of rough at 7,419-yard Bay Hill were modified to fairway. As you’d expect, the planet’s best players pounced, averaging 70.28 percent in driving accuracy, a nine-year high in the tournament. While finding the short grass isn’t a prerequisite for success most weeks, that precision yielded the highest greens-in-regulation split officially recorded in tournament history at 68.41 percent. Conversion percentage on those opportunities (29.32) and scrambling (59.86 percent) were also at their highest clips since 2002. The product was an uncharacteristically unproblematic Bay Hill that averaged 71.121, or 0.879 strokes under par. Among all stand-alone hosts last season, it was the third-easiest par 72.
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The golf analytics experts at Golfstrat.com identify iron play and total driving as key to high finishes at Bay Hill, with a specific emphasis on iron play from 150-175 yards, more the 200 yards and inside 100 yards. Driving distance isn’t a significant indicator of success, so we’ll be looking at a wider net of potential winners this week.
The Favorites
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Adam Scott: The Australian’s best effort at Bay Hill came in 2013 when he finished third. After finishing second at the Northern Trust Open, Scott has won his last two events: the Honda Classic and WGC-Cadillac Championship. Scott is sixth in greens in regulation and leads the tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green.
Rory McIlroy: McIlroy finished 11th at last year’s AP Invitational. After missing the cut at the Honda Classic, the Northern Irishman rebounded with a third-place finish at the WGC-Cadillac Championship two weeks ago. McIlroy is 4th in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 10th in approaches from over 200 yards.
Jason Day: Day finished 17th last year and arrives following a week off after finishing 23rd at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. He has struggled from tee to green and is presently situated in 104th in strokes gained: tee-to-green. The normally adept driver is 91st in total driving. Still, as the No. 3 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking, he has earned a position among the tournament favorites.
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The Dark Horses
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Matt Every: Ignoring everything but the fact that he has won this tournament the last two years, Matt Every isn’t much of a candidate for victory on paper. He’s missed two of his last three cuts. He’s 186th in strokes gained: tee-to green and 123rd in strokes gained: putting. Even so, the guy who raised the trophy the last two years at least has to be a dark horse, right?
Brendan Steele: Coming off a 14th-place finish at the Honda Classic, Brendan Steele finished 35th at Bay Hill last year. The No. 81 golfer in the world, Steele is a solid iron player, Steele is 25th in strokes gained: tee to green and 30th in total driving. An under-the-radar player, the Californian could do well this week.
Prediction
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Winner: Justin Rose
While he missed the cut at last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, world No. 8 Justin Rose finished second in 2013 and third in 2011, so he’s capable of handling Bay Hill.
Rose finished 17th at the WGC-Cadillac Championship two weeks ago in his most recent start and 16th at the Northern Trust Open before that.
He’s 10th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and 19th in greens in regulation. He’s 26th in ball striking and 13th in birdie average. The Englishman is fourth in approaches from 200-225 yards and 34th in approaches from 150-175 yards.
The veteran will be looking to peak for the Masters, and after an off-week of preparation following a run of good form, he should be in top form as he takes on a course he’s handled well in the past.
All stats via PGATour.com
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