NBA Draft 2016: Latest Mock Draft Ahead of NCAA Tournament
For most of the one-and-done college basketball players who will make up the top of the 2016 NBA draft class, the beginning of the end of that one year started with Selection Sunday's unveiling of the NCAA tournament field.
Likely top-five picks Brandon Ingram and Jaylen Brown should have at least two games of tourney action to market themselves to NBA general managers—barring first-round upsets of their fourth-seeded squads.
For potential No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons, however, we have as much in-game film of him as we're going to get. LSU failed to qualify for the NCAA tournament, and the Tigers won't accept a bid to any other postseason contest.
Below is a mock draft with teams' positions determined by the NBA standings as of March 14. The predictions carry better news for some than others. But, with the NCAA tournament field set, many of these players will have the opportunity to improve their stocks in the coming weeks.
| Pick | Team | Player | Class |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Philadelphia 76ers | F Ben Simmons, LSU | Freshman |
| 2. | Los Angeles Lakers | SF Brandon Ingram, Duke | Freshman |
| 3. | Phoenix Suns | SF Jaylen Brown, California | Freshman |
| 4. | Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn) | PF Dragan Bender, Turkey | International |
| 5. | Minnesota Timberwolves | PF Henry Ellenson, Marquette | Freshman |
| 6. | New Orleans Pelicans | SG Jamal Murray, Kentucky | Freshman |
| 7. | Sacramento Kings | PG Kris Dunn, Providence | Junior |
| 8. | Toronto Raptors (from New York) | PF/C Skal Labissiere, Kentucky | Freshman |
| 9. | Denver Nuggets | SG Buddy Hield, Oklahoma | Senior |
| 10. | Orlando Magic | PF/C Deyonta Davis, Michigan State | Freshman |
| 11. | Milwaukee Bucks | C Jakob Poeltl, Utah | Sophomore |
| 12. | Phoenix Suns (from Washington) | SG Timothe Luwawu, France | International |
| 13. | Utah Jazz | PG Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame | Junior |
| 14. | Chicago Bulls | PF Ivan Rabb, California | Freshman |
| 15. | Boston Celtics (from Dallas) | PG Wade Baldwin IV, Vanderbilt | Sophomore |
| 16. | Denver Nuggets (from Houston) | C Diamond Stone, Maryland | Freshman |
| 17. | Detroit Pistons | SG Denzel Valentine, Michigan State | Senior |
| 18. | Denver Nuggets (from Portland) | SG Furkan Korkmaz, Turkey | International |
| 19. | Indiana Pacers | SF Taurean Prince, Baylor | Senior |
| 20. | Atlanta Hawks | C Damian Jones, Vanderbilt | Junior |
| 21. | Charlotte Hornets | SG Grayson Allen, Duke | Sophomore |
| 22. | Philadelphia 76ers (from Miami) | PF Brice Johnson, North Carolina | Senior |
| 23. | Memphis Grizzlies | SG Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia | Senior |
| 24. | Boston Celtics | PF Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga | Sophomore |
| 25. | Los Angeles Clippers | C Stephen Zimmerman, UNLV | Freshman |
| 26. | Philadelphia 76ers (from Oklahoma City) | F Juan Hernangomez, Spain | International |
| 27. | Toronto Raptors | F Paul Zipser, Germany | International |
| 28. | Phoenix Suns (from Cleveland) | SG Isaia Cordinier, France | International |
| 29. | San Antonio Spurs | PG Melo Trimble, Maryland | Sophomore |
| 30. | Golden State Warriors | C Cheick Diallo, Kansas | Freshman |
First-Rounders You Won't See in the Tourney
The nearly three months that separate the end of the NCAA tournament and the start of the NBA draft help to wipe the slate clean and eliminate any recency bias in the selection process. But some of the draft's top prospects who could have used a big stage like the tourney to improve their stocks won't have that luxury.
Only three players in this first-round mock will be absent from the tournament due to their teams' inability to crack the field. LSU, Marquette and UNLV all registered winning records on the year, but their resumes weren't strong enough to earn their respective stars—Ben Simmons, Henry Ellenson and Stephen Zimmerman—a ticket to the Big Dance.
The rest of the names in this mock draft that will be absent from the NCAA tournament all ply their trades in Europe. That list includes Dragan Bender, Timothe Luwawu, Furkan Korkmaz, Juan Hernangomez, Paul Zipser and Isaia Cordinier. In their cases, you'll have to rely on the same YouTube footage, the folktales from scouts extolling their potential to be the next Dirk Nowitzki and the promises that an NBA strength coach can add those extra 20 pounds that inevitably follow Euros in order to form an opinion of them.
Players Who Can Improve Their Draft Stocks in March
The remaining 21 names projected here to be first-round selections will all play a part in March Madness. Some of them will use the opportunity to increase the number on that first NBA paycheck and decrease the number that comes before "overall pick."
SF Brandon Ingram, Duke (No. 2 Overall Pick to Lakers)
Simmons has been heralded as the 2016 No. 1 overall pick since the first time he picked up a basketball. But LSU's unceremonious departure from the postseason and the growing perception of some cracks in Simmons' foundation have combined to fuel Ingram's late push for the top pick.
In an article unambiguously titled "Why Ben Simmons isn't the top prospect in the 2016 NBA draft," Yahoo Sports' Jonathan Givony offered a scathing catalog of Simmons' apparent red flags. And right or wrong, the LSU freshman only has predraft workouts and interviews to try to prove those points wrong.
Ingram, on the other hand, is trending upward with games left to play. Duke is the fourth seed in the most favorable region on the bracket, with Oregon, Oklahoma and Texas A&M serving as the only teams seeded higher than the Blue Devils.
If Ingram is able to expand upon his 16.8 points per game and lead Duke to a deep tourney run, he could pull the No. 1 pick right out from under Simmons.
PF/C Skal Labissiere, Kentucky (No. 8 Overall Pick to Raptors)
Skal Labissiere didn't exactly storm out of the gates in his first year of college basketball.
As SB Nation's Ricky O'Donnell put it, "[Labissiere] simply looked completely overmatched in a way that felt completely foreign for a 5-star big man in Lexington," and he averaged 4.1 points per game through 16 SEC games.
But Labissiere closed out the regular season with 11 points and eight rebounds against Florida, followed by 18 points, nine rebounds and six blocks against LSU to earn SEC Freshman of the Week honors.
However, just 12 minutes of combined playing time in Kentucky's two conference tournament games leave a pronounced question mark for Labissiere entering the NCAA tournament. The Toronto Raptors could use a big man; Labissiere just needs to give them a reason to use the likely lottery pick they received from the Knicks on him.
PF/C Deyonta Davis, Michigan State (No. 10 Overall Pick to Magic)
Deyonta Davis belongs in a tight competition between a handful of big men to earn mid-lottery selections. In a group that also features Labissiere, Marquette's Ellenson, Utah's Jakob Poeltl and Cal's Ivan Rabb, Davis would likely bring up the rear if the draft were today.
But if his criminally under-seeded Michigan State squad makes a national title push and Davis impresses scouts in the process, he could close the gap.
On the heels of a game-saving block that propelled the Spartans to a Big Ten tournament championship, MLive.com's Kyle Austin wrote, "This could be the month that the world takes notice of Deyonta Davis, Michigan State's uber-talented big man who has mostly flown under the radar this season."
That sort of tourney-time revelation is what it will take to vault Davis closer to the front of the pack when it comes to 2016's frontcourt prospects. But is also might be a revelation Davis is capable of producing.
PG Melo Trimble, Maryland (No. 29 Overall Pick to Spurs)
Melo Trimble's Maryland teammate Diamond Stone is a relatively safe bet to be selected in the first round, but Trimble himself will likely be sweating it out on draft night.
He's so close to the border between Rounds 1 and 2 at this point, DraftExpress.com has him as the 36th-best prospect in the field, and the site's latest mock projected he will be the first pick of the second round.
Sitting on a margin that thin, it's not a question of if Trimble's performance in the NCAA tournament will impact NBA teams' perceptions, but rather what direction his Big Dance play will drive his draft stock.
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