Stock Up, Stock Down for Boxing's Top Stars
If the fight game is a business, then the reputations of the biggest stars make up the boxing equivalent of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. And just as blue-chip stocks like IBM or Apple can still rise and fall along with market turbulence, so too can the stocks of proven stars like Manny Pacquiao and Saul "Canelo" Alvarez fluctuate.
A brief glance at the stock index here will show a sport that is in good overall health. Emerging stars like Terence Crawford and Carl Frampton are just two names on here that are on the rise.
Even most of the fighters I've rated as having their stock down could quickly ascend again by making the right fights.
Shawn Porter and Keith Thurman: Up
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I've made this a double entry, because Keith Thurman and Shawn Porter are both hot fighters right now specifically because they are set to fight each other June 25. Few things get boxing fans more excited than seeing a pair of young, emerging stars paired up in a showdown.
This fight was originally set for March but has been pushed back to June due to some minor injuries Thurman suffered in a car accident. To avoid a year-long layoff, Porter will face veteran journeyman Lanardo Tyner in a 12-round exhibition later this month. According to ESPN's Dan Rafael, 16-ounce gloves and headgear will be used.
Thurman vs. Porter might not be on a par with Sugar Ray Leonard and Thomas Hearns circa 1981. But for 2016, it's still a pretty nice fight.
Kell Brook: Down, but Set to Rise
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Kell Brook might be the best welterweight in the world right now. The undefeated IBF champion seized his belt with an outstanding win over Shawn Porter.
That belt around his waist should have drawn the top names in the division to fight him. But they aren't lining up to do so.
Still, in a division as deep as 147 pounds, Brook should be able to make better fights than the ones he's made since winning his belt. His stoppages over Ionut Dan Ion and Frankie Gavin demonstrated he's a true talent. But those are second-tier fighters, at best.
And now he's set to next face Kevin Bizier, a fighter who has already lost twice against Ion.
It's not Brook's fault if he can't get another elite welterweight to face him. But it's undeniable he's sinking into the background by facing fighters like Ion and Bizier.
So ultimately, that means his profile is down. Just the same, if he were a stock, a smart investor would buy shares now. A market correction is inevitable, and Brook's stock will definitely rise again.
Carl Frampton: Up
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Carl Frampton's defeat of Scott Quigg last month wasn't exactly a thriller, although there were some exciting moments in the last part of the bout. It also wasn't as close as the split-decision scores would lead one to believe. Frampton clearly won about eight rounds.
The fight was one of the year's most important, though. In a sport that suffers from an alphabet-soup proliferation of titles, Quigg and Frampton both put their undefeated records and super bantamweight titles on the line, allowing Frampton to unify the WBA and IBF belts.
I'd love to see Frampton face undefeated Cuban Guillermo Rigondeaux. But a bigger payday would probably be undefeated featherweight champion Leo Santa Cruz.
If Frampton can face and defeat Santa Cruz before the end of this year, it will give him a great case as 2016's Fighter of the Year.
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Roman Gonzalez: Up
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In 2015, lineal flyweight and WBC champion Roman Gonzalez emerged as the consensus No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Both The Ring and Transnational Boxing Rankings recognize the undefeated, three-division champ as the top fighter on the planet.
And unlike some fighters who reach the top spot on these lists, Gonzalez is pure excitement in the ring. He's an explosive, near-technically perfect offensive fighter.
Still, for his stock to continue to rise, he's going to need to make a true superfight this year. The best candidate would be WBO super flyweight champion Naoya Inoue, of Japan.
Fighting opponents like McWilliams Arroyo, whom he meets in April, is not going to keep even his biggest fans satisfied.
Miguel Cotto: Down
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Miguel Cotto is one of the great boxing stars of this century. His showdown with Canelo Alvarez was one of the highlights of 2015.
Cotto is a fighter who has always conducted himself as a true sportsman, both inside the ring and out. Unfortunately, he was less than gracious about his loss to Alvarez, refusing to conduct an in-ring interview after the scores were read, awarding Alvarez victory.
Since then, the Puerto Rican legend has continued to insist he deserved to win.
If a March 11 report by USA Today's Mike Coppinger proves true, Cotto's stock won't rise much with his next fight, either. According to the story, James Kirkland was offered a pay-per-view date against Cotto for later this year.
A few years ago, there would have been some real demand for this fight. But Kirkland was stopped by Canelo last year in what might have been the year's most exciting KO.
So it's tough to see him as a credible pay-per-view headliner. It will make for a tough sell.
Terence Crawford: Up
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If fighters were stocks, WBC light welterweight Terence Crawford would be the kind who makes a big splash in his initial public offering but then just continues to climb. His prospectus would have investors' eyes popping.
The undefeated, two-division world champion was 2014's Fighter of the Year. He has consistently looked brilliant against very good fighters, which is a general hallmark of a great fighter.
But to continue to climb, he's going to need to keep making major fights. I'd like to see him face WBO champion Viktor Postol. The Ukrainian has the length and technical ability to make for an interesting fight with Crawford.
But from a box-office perspective, the better matchup would be WBA belt holder Adrien Broner.
Gennady Golovkin: Up
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Middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin is undefeated, 34-0 with 31 KOs. He's knocked out 21 straight opponents. His stock can only be on the rise.
Expect it to go higher. Last October, he stopped David Lemieux to add the IBF belt to his WBA strap. When Saul Alvarez defeated Miguel Cotto in November to capture the WBC and lineal titles, GGG vs. Canelo officially became the hottest potential fight in the sport.
When Alvarez opted to face two-time KO victim and welterweight Amir Khan, instead of Golovkin, it only added to GGG's mystique. It's hard not to see that decision as Alvarez ducking the division's Boogeyman.
Ultimately, though, even if it's clear Golovkin is being dodged, fans are going to want to see him face a true challenge. If middleweight stars like Alvarez won't face him, he might need to move up in weight to keep his stock on the rise.
Saul Alvarez: Down
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Last November, Saul Alvarez captured the biggest win of his career so far. By beating future Hall of Famer Miguel Cotto, Canelo became the lineal middleweight champion, even if he did do it at a catchweight.
That win should have set up what would be the biggest fight of 2016, a unification bout between Canelo and WBA and IBF champion Gennady Golovkin.
Even if it made business sense to let a Canelo-GGG bout wait a little longer to continue building demand, Alvarez should have made his first defense of the WBC and lineal title against a legitimate middleweight contender. And he should have made that defense at the true middleweight limit of 160 pounds.
Instead, he will face twice-knocked-out welterweight Amir Khan in May, at a catchweight of 155 pounds.
Alvarez is perhaps the biggest draw in the sport at this point. So his stock is destined to rise again.
But he's going to need to face GGG to make it happen.
Sergey Kovalev: Up
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Sergey Kovalev's January TKO of Jean Pascal was among the most ugly fights of recent years. The undefeated WBA, IBF and WBO champion could have finished the former champion much sooner.
Instead, he prolonged the abuse and battered Pascal round after round, before Pascal's trainer, Freddie Roach, stopped the fight following Round 7.
In his post-fight interview with HBO's Max Kellerman, Kovalev admitted to deliberately carrying Pascal longer than he needed to in order to punish Pascal for the trash talk that had gone on in the build-up to the fight.
It was a monstrous admission. But boxing is a brutal sport, and fans tend to reward villains at the box office. With a potential showdown looming this year against Andre Ward, Kovalev's stock is clearly still on the rise.
Manny Pacquiao: Down
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In Manny Pacquiao's last fight, he earned a tremendous fortune for losing a boring, one-sided bout to Floyd Mayweather. After utterly failing to cut the ring or close distance on Mayweather over the course of 12 rounds, Pacquiao embarrassed himself afterward by telling HBO's Max Kellerman he thought he deserved to win.
He's embarrassed himself further by clinging to that delusion. Pacquiao has been the most popular fighter of this century, but it's hard to keep cheering for a poor sport with a tenuous grasp on reality.
Pacquiao hurt his nice-guy image even more with his recent inflammatory anti-gay comments. The boxing star told a television station in his native Philippines that same-sex couples were "worse than animals."
Beyond all that, he's facing Timothy Bradley for a third time in his next bout. Neither of the first two fights provided much in the way of excitement. It would be a tough sell, even if Pacquiao were still in his prime and as popular as ever.
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