Preview and Predictions for the 2016 Valspar Championship
The PGA Tour arrives at the third stop in the Florida Swing with this week's Valspar Championship.
The story of the Swing so far: Adam Scott. The Australian has won the first two tournaments of the four-tournament stretch in Florida. The Big Three—Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy—have been decidedly less impressive.
The pros will face another tough test this week on the heels of tackling Doral's Blue Monster Course. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is one of the tour's sternest par-71 tracks, averaging .863 strokes over par last year. And with renovations and regrassing following last year's event, Spieth and company will get a look at a new-and-improved Copperhead course.
Precise iron play and adept putting will be critical this week, and we're poised to point out a few golfers best-suited to claim victory.
For that info, plus a full breakdown, read on.
Where to Watch
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Defending Champion: Jordan Spieth
Where: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead), 7,340 yards, par 71
What
Total Purse: $6,100,000
Winning Share: $1,098,000
FedEx Points to Winner: 500
When
Thursday-Friday: 3-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
Saturday-Sunday: 1-3 p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (NBC)
Biggest Storylines
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Jordan Spieth, who hasn't been clearing the high bar he's set in recent weeks, returns to a venue that has to be personally significant for the 22-year-old Texan. Spieth locked up Special Temporary status in 2013 thanks to a seventh-place Valspar finish, which laid the foundation for his present tour success. And his win at the Copperhead course last year elevated him to multiple tournament-winner status and set him up for his historic triumph at Augusta.
Interestingly, not only has this tournament never produced a back-to-back winner, but only three of 15 defending champions have produced a top-10 finish in the following season. Spieth will be looking to buck this trend when he pegs it Thursday.
The world's best golfers will take on a course in the top tier of PGA Tour difficulty for the third week in a row. While the difficulty of the course, with its penal "Snake Pit" series of holes, will garner attention, the most notable venue-related storyline is the renovation, which followed Spieth's triumph last year.
Regarding the improvements, PGATour.com's fantasy writer Rob Bolton writes:
"The course now features regionally popular Celebration Bermudagrass on the fairways and TifEagle Bermuda on its greens, which are larger thanks to the restoration. Tee boxes are also bigger. Irrigation and drainage are new. The objective was to update while retaining the same look. Aside from a new greenside bunker at the par-4 12th hole and church-pew bunkering right of the fairway of the par-4 18th, returning competitors are unlikely to see much of a difference.
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The Favorites
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Jordan Spieth: Defending champion Jordan Spieth arrives at the Valspar Championship following a 17th-place finish at the World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship and a missed cut at the Northern Trust Open. In addition to winning here last year, Spieth finished seventh in 2013. Putting is key at the Copperhead Course. And while he struggled with the flatstick last week, Spieth is 19th in strokes gained-putting for the season.
Henrik Stenson: The Swedish ball-flushing specialist finished fourth last year, his only appearance at the Copperhead Course. He finished 28th at last week's WGC-Cadillac Championship in his 2016 calendar year PGA Tour debut. Stenson led the tour in greens in regulation and was second in strokes gained-tee-to-green last year. His precision into greens will be key at the course.
Louis Oosthuizen: King Louis finished 14th at last week's WGC-Cadillac Championship, which followed his win at the ISPS Handa Perth International. Unfortunately, the South African has missed the cut at the Valspar Championship in his last three attempts. A survey of major sports books (via Oddschecker) has Oosthuizen between third- and fifth-best odds. He'll need to deviate from his recent Valspar Championship form to justify that billing.
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The Dark Horses
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Patrick Reed: He finished second in a playoff here last year, so at first blush, pegging Reed as a dark horse seems surprising. However, Reed's recent struggles put him in the outsider realm this week. Reed missed the cut at the Honda Classic prior to finishing 52nd at the WGC-Cadillac Championship last week. While he's struggled with his driving and putting, his iron play and finish here last year suggest he could surprise this week.
Jason Dufner: The Duf hasn't missed a cut here in six attempts. He arrives after finishing 11th at the WGC-Cadillac Championship and has made nine of his last 10 cuts. A streaky putter, Dufner never seems to have problem finding greens. In a limited sample, he's 39th in GIR this season and 28th in strokes gained-tee-to-green. Amid a good-but-not-great field, don't count the Auburn alum out.
Prediction
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Winner: Matt Kuchar
Kuchar has recorded top-15 finishes in three of his last five turns at the Valspar Championship. He finished 28th at the WGC-Cadillac Championship last week and eighth at the Northern Trust Open in the week prior. Kuchar has made the cut in all six of his PGA Tour starts this season with three top-25 showings.
Work on the greens and approach shots will be key this week. Kuchar is presently 12th in strokes gained-putting. He's 22nd in approaches from 50 to 125 yards and 32nd in shots from 150 to 175 yards.
The No. 26 golfer in the world, look for the Florida native to surprise this week.
All stats via PGATour.com
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