2016 NBA Draft: Breaking Down Pro Future of Mississippi State's Malik Newman
A high school scoring machine and consensus top-10 recruit (ESPN, 247Sports, Rivals), Malik Newman passed on offers from Kentucky and Kansas, opting instead to stay home and attend Mississippi State.
It hasn't worked out the way he probably thought it would, though. Newman has generated little buzz with the Bulldogs, who are near the bottom of the SEC standings. But he's also had trouble adjusting to an offense that doesn't run through him.
Despite an underwhelming freshman season, it wouldn't be shocking to see Newman enter the NBA draft. If he stays, the 19-year-old's stock could bottom out completely.
Relevant Stats
| PPG | APG | RPG | SPG | Fg Pct. | 3pt Pct. | FT Pct. | OTrg | Usage |
| 11.9 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 0.4 | .385 | .376 | .697 | 102.5 | .226 |
Newman probably expected a higher usage rate than 22.6 percent (10 field-goal attempts per game). Newman hasn't shown too much as a setup man, but he's also done well taking care of the ball, averaging 2.2 assists to 1.8 turnovers.
Newman has been effective from deep, converting 56 threes in 26 games while shooting 37.6 percent. Inside the arc, he's been a disaster. He averages more threes (2.2) than twos (1.7) per game, shooting just 39.4 percent on two-pointers, which is why he's below 40 percent from the field.
Defensively, it has to be a little alarming to see the guard has totaled just 10 steals and one block all season.
Strengths
Newman projects as a combo guard who can create with the ball and spot up off it.
He's a transition weapon, thanks to an impressive blend of speed and shiftiness. In the half court, he's capable of generating offense out of pick-and-rolls, both as a scorer and facilitator. Newman needs to improve his pull-up accuracy, but he's no doubt a threat to stop-and-pop from anywhere. And he can toss the ball in with various floaters and runners around the foul line.
Newman has also shot it well from three, particularly in catch-and-shoot situations.
As a passer, he's shown a willingness to locate teammates off ball screens and penetration. Though not known for his distributing, his ability to get into the lane leads to drive-and-dish assists.
Weaknesses
At 6'3", he lacks size for a 2-guard and the explosiveness to compensate. Newman isn't a natural facilitator, either, which raises questions about his fit in a pro lineup.
He's struggled to create quality looks for himself in the half court. He takes just 2.6 free-throw attempts per game, and when he does get to the rim, he's been awful at finishing (44.4 percent in half court, per Hoop-Math.com).
Newman also hasn't given scouts any reason to believe he'll offer much defensively. He sports an ugly 109.8 defensive rating and a minus-1.4 defensive box plus/minus, per Sports-Reference.com.
Pro Comparisons
Dion Waiters
Like Waiters, Newman is a streaky scorer who can create off the dribble and catch fire around the perimeter. Both struggle against length at the basket and lean on a difficult shot selection, which results in inefficiency.
Waiters has managed to carve out a role that asks him to provide firepower off the bench. He isn't a good enough defender or a consistent enough offensive player to justify a starting role, even though he can go off on any given night.
Isaiah Canaan
Though Canaan has proved he can connect from outside, he hasn't shown he can run an offense. He also struggles at the rim (40.9 percent, per NBA.com) and isn't a defensive asset.
Knowing what buttons to press and when to hit them will be challenging for Newman as well.
Still, Canaan should stick around due to his ball-handling and perimeter game. Newman may be able to do the same as a shot-making specialist.
Best-Case Scenario
A best-case scenario sees Newman making the transition to point guard, given the trouble he may have scoring against and defending bigger 2s.
Otherwise, he should be looking to follow in the footsteps of a player like Monta Ellis, who's thrived in the league as a shoot-first, pass-second playmaker.
He doesn't appear to have the same quickness or finishing instincts in the paint, but if everything works out for Newman, he's likely to make a living as a sixth man.
Worst-Case Scenario
NBA teams may not be interested in a guard who struggles to defend and get teammates involved—especially if he's shooting closer to 40 percent from the floor.
If it doesn't work out for Newman, he'll likely end up playing pro ball overseas. His scoring ability should hold more value in Europe, China or Australia.
Prediction
Based on freshman results, Newman has plenty of reasons to return as a sophomore. But it wouldn't be shocking to see him bolt for the NBA, where the faster pace and open floor would better suit his strengths.
Unfortunately, unless Newman wows during workouts, it's difficult to imagine a team investing a first-round pick on a guard who'd just shot 38.5 percent and lacks 2-guard size and point guard instincts.
He'll eventually find his way to the NBA, even if it means after some time in the NBA D-League or overseas. If he does, chances are that it will be as an offensive-minded spark plug off the bench.
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