Preview and Predictions for the 2016 Honda Classic
With the conclusion of the Northern Trust Open, the PGA Tour's West Coast swing has faded into the California sunset. Now, golf moves to the land of retirees and Mickey Mouse for a four-tournament stretch, beginning with perhaps its most difficult: the Honda Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
PGA National Champion Course is the host venue, and we're setting the over/under at 250 for the number of times "Bear Trap" is mentioned on the tournament telecast. The stretch of holes from Nos. 15 to 17 decimates competitors. Tallying pars, carding three-four-three through the stretch, gives competitors a half-stroke advantage over the field.
While we're not likely to see a repeat of last year's brutal conditions, which facilitated a Monday playoff win for Padraig Harrington, players can expect a stern test at a course that's regarded as the sternest par-70 non-major layout on tour.
The field features 13 of the Top 25 in the Official World Golf Ranking, including Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy.
It's a good field and venue, as players try to put it together as we move toward the Masters in early April.
Click through for the full preview of the Honda Classic, which starts on Thursday.
Where to Watch
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Defending Champion: Padraig Harrington
Where: PGA National (Champion), Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, 7,158 yards, par 70
What
Total Purse: $6.1 million
Winning Share: $1.098 million
FedEx Points to Winner: 500
When
Thursday-Friday: 2-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
Saturday, Sunday: 1-3 p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (NBC)
Biggest Storylines
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As mentioned in the Intro, we're on to the Florida swing. This means, among other things, Bermuda greens, the looming shadow of Augusta and a stretch of significant tournaments (most notably the WGC-Cadillac Championship and the Arnold Palmer Invitational).
Rory McIlroy enters the tournament on the heels of a final-round 75 at the Northern Trust Open (after three days of solid play); therefore, more eyes will focus on him than usual to see how he bounces back. All systems seemed to be a go for him through three days at Riviera, and the state of his game will be a major point of interest as we move closer to his pursuit of the career Grand Slam at Augusta.
It's worth noting, too, that this is where McIlroy walked off the course in 2013, complaining (eventually) of a toothache.
The course is tough. Fans will hear a lot about that this week, to be sure. The 7,140-yard par 70, which plays as a par 72 for recreational golfers, features the dreaded Bear Trap! But really, the stretch from Nos. 15 through 17 is exceedingly difficult. However, players do get a chance to make up a stroke at the 18th, a par five and historically the easiest hole on the course. The Champion Course played to an average of 1.83 strokes over par amid rain and wind last year.
Here's a bit of trivia to regale your friends with while watching the tournament: Honda is the longest-running title sponsor of a PGA Tour event, first putting up the purse money in 1982.
The Favorites
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Rory McIlroy: Things were going so well in California, but McIlroy stumbled to a tie for 20th in his PGA Tour debut at the Northern Trust Open. But with a win and two top-10 finishes in his first three starts on the European Tour and returning to a venue where he's won and finished second in two of his last three tries, the world No. 3 is rightfully the favorite this week.
Rickie Fowler: Fowler is putting a peg in the ground for the first time since the Waste Management Phoenix Open, where he fell to Hideki Matsuyama in a playoff. He has two top-15 finishes at the venue. The Oklahoma State alumnus is respectable from 100 to 175 yards, which is a critical range at this accuracy-first golf course that demands players do good work around the greens.
Adam Scott: Getting comfortable (sort of) with his conventional-length putter, Scott tied for second at the Northern Trust Open. He certainly played well enough from tee to green to win the tournament. The Australian finished 12th here in 2014. He's presently sixth on tour in strokes gained from tee to green. Precision in that department will be critical this week.
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The Dark Horses
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Brooks Koepka: A Florida native who showed he can go low at PGA National with a second-round 64 last year, Koepka is coming off an eighth-place finish at Pebble Beach in his most recent start. He's a solid iron player whose solid putting could make up for a lackluster short game.
Paul Casey: The Englishman finished third at the Champion Course last year and 12th in 2014, so, in other words, he's comfortable at the venue. He's made three of his last four cuts and finished 39th at the Northern Trust Open in his most recent start. Casey is poised to play well at the tight layout this week.
Prediction
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Prediction: Patrick Reed
The No. 9 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking, Patrick Reed is the third-best golfer in the field by that metric of a player's overall performance across the past two years.
He's made nine of his last 10 cuts and finished tied for sixth in his most recent competitive exercise (Pebble Beach). And of more significance for punters and prognosticators this week, Reed tied for seventh at the Honda Classic last year.
The Texas native is 20th in strokes gained from tee to green and 18th in greens in regulation percentage. With a week off to rest and get dialed in, Reed should be rested and ready to take on a course he's more than comfortable at.
Stats via PGATour.com
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