Why the Midfield Battle Will Be the Key to Porto vs. Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund enter Thursday's return leg of the UEFA Europa League round-of-32 tie with FC Porto in a fairly comfortable position, with a 2-0 home victory in the bag.
It's not an insurmountable lead by any means, however, and the Black and Yellows will have to be prepared for a Porto side that'll look completely different to the one they faced in Signal Iduna Park.
On that day, Jose Peseiro's team was surprisingly negative—almost destructive, even— showing "no intention to turn the match into an open battle," as tactics blogger Constantin Eckner stated after the game, adding that "Porto travelled to Dortmund with only one strategy in mind: keeping the score as low as possible."
That plan worked to a degree, as the hosts' vast superiority didn't show on the scoresheet. Still, it left Porto with very little margin for error. Just one goal from the Black and Yellows could well be enough to decide the tie, as the Dragons would have to score four—twice as many as Dortmund have conceded in all seven games of 2016 combined.
Porto's record in the Estadio do Dragao could be a reason for concern among BVB fans. The Portuguese giants have kept clean sheets in half of their 16 home matches across competitions, losing three, per Transfermarkt.co.uk.
Thursday's hosts will receive a major boost with the return of a number of key players who missed the first leg in Germany: Maxi Pereira and Ivan Marcano will improve Porto's back line in three spots.
Uruguay international Pereira will replace winger Silvestre Varela at right-back after being suspended for the first leg, while Marcano's return from injury at the weekend allowed Miguel Layun to move to his usual spot at left-back after playing in central defence against Dortmund.
The Mexican is very involved in his side's attacking play, as the numbers Portuguese football expert Jan Hagen tweeted after Porto's 3-2 win over Moreirense FC show:
Most important, however, is the return of Danilo Pereira in midfield.
Tom Kundert of Portugoal.net called him his side's "anchorman" in a piece for YellowWallPod.com: "Danilo Pereira has been excellent since moving from Maritimo in the summer and looks a lock in Portugal’s Euro 2016 team. Physically imposing with excellent anticipation, Danilo provides a formidable barrier for opposition teams at the base of Porto’s midfield."
The 24-year-old is set to lock horns with a player Dortmund missed in the first leg: Ilkay Gundogan. The Germany international returned to team training after overcoming an illness on Monday, per local paper Ruhr Nachrichten on Twitter (link in German).
Nuri Sahin filled in admirably for Gundogan in the first leg but was clearly aided by the fact that Porto never got a foot on the ground in midfield. The Turkey international often dropped deep to evade man-to-man marking and built up play from his own half.
With the Dragons chasing a result at home, however, chances are they'll be more aggressive right away. Gundogan's pressing resistance will be key, as will his quickness—or rather, his quick-thinking decision-making.
Seeing as Dortmund—presumably—will need just one goal to tilt the tie in their favour, the Black and Yellows won't sit deep and wait for Porto to open up spaces for counter-attacks. That's not in their DNA, anyway.
No, the visitors will try to be dominant, as they are in most games, and that could open a window of opportunity for Porto. Eckner detailed a possible game plan for them earlier in February:
"A horizontally compact pressing line coupled with a vigilant zone-coverage behind it could keep Dortmund’s playmakers, Julian Weigl and Ilkay Gundogan, out of the space between Porto’s lines. At times, the Black and Yellows tend to be torn apart, lacking presence in midfield, when they are not able to enter the central zones without being threatened to lose the ball.
That symptom leads to long and dangerous passes coming out of the backfield, which could cause quick turnover and enable Porto to attack in quick transition plays. A tactical approach that aims to pressure the opposing playmakers by containing their runs could work out perfectly.
"
At any rate, Thursday's return leg figures to be a much more close-fought affair than the first meeting. Whoever wins the midfield battle should emerge victorious: Porto with the physicality of Danilo, or Dortmund with the ingenuity of Gundogan.
Lars Pollmann is a Featured Columnist writing on Borussia Dortmund. He also writes for YellowWallPod.com. You can follow him on Twitter.
