Daytona 500 2016: Odds and Predictions for 58th Great American Race

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series is just underway, and there's no better race to start than with the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway.

Here's a quick video courtesy of NASCAR that set the tone for Sunday's race:

Ford's Joey Logano is the defending champion and will be starting in the fifth position, while 2014 champion Dale Earnhardt Jr. is third after winning the first Can-Am Duel on Thursday, per NASCAR:

This event always seems to be wide open, with only Jimmie Johnson repeating as winner of the Great American Race in the past decade:

Year	Driver
2006	Jimmie Johnson
2007	Kevin Harvick
2008	Ryan Newman
2009	Matt Kenseth
2010	Jamie McMurray
2011	Trevor Bayne
2012	Matt Kenseth
2013	Jimmie Johnson
2014	Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2015	Joey Logano

Here's a look at the starting lineup, odds and a prediction for the 58th annual installment of the 500:

Position	Car	Driver	Team	Odds to Win
1.	24	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	+1800
2.	20	Matt Kenseth	Joe Gibbs Racing	+1000
3.	88	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	Hendrick Motorsports	+600
4.	18	Kyle Busch	Joe Gibbs Racing	+1200
5.	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	+1000
6.	1	Jamie McMurray	Chip Ganassi Racing	+2800
7.	21	Ryan Blaney	Wood Brothers Racing	+5000
8.	41	Kurt Busch	Stewart-Haas Racing	+1800
9.	4	Kevin Harvick	Stewart-Haas Racing	+1000
10.	19	Carl Edwards	Joe Gibbs Racing	+1600
11.	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	+1200
12.	95	Ty Dillon	Circle Sport-Leavine Family Racing	+7500
13.	5	Kasey Kahne	Hendrick Motorsports	+2200
14.	42	Kyle Larson	Chip Ganassi Racing	+2200
15.	16	Greg Biffle	Roush Fenway Racing	+5000
16.	10	Danica Patrick	Stewart-Haas Racing	+5000
17.	34	Chris Buescher	Front Row Motorsports	+6600
18.	14	Brian Vickers	Stewart-Haas Racing	+5000
19.	17	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Roush Fenway Racing	+5000
20.	93	Matt DiBenedetto	BK Racing	+15000
21.	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	+3300
22.	46	Michael Annett	HScott Motorsports	+15000
23.	6	Trevor Bayne	Roush Fenway Racing	+5000
24.	38	Landon Cassill	Front Row Motorsports	+12500
25.	2	Brad Keselowski	Team Penske	+1200
26.	48	Jimmie Johnson	Hendrick Motorsports	+900
27.	7	Regan Smith	Tommy Baldwin Racing	+6600
28.	78	Martin Truex Jr.	Furniture Row Racing	+1800
29.	23	David Ragan	BK Racing	+5000
30.	47	AJ Allmendinger	JTG Daugherty Racing	+7500
31.	15	Clint Bowyer	HScott Motorsports	+5000
32.	13	Casey Mears	Germain Racing	+7500
33.	32	Bobby Labonte	Go Green Racing	+10000
34.	43	Aric Almirola	Richard Petty Motorsports	+5000
35.	44	Brian Scott	Richard Petty Motorsports	+10000
36.	83	Michael Waltrip	BK Racing	+6600
37.	27	Paul Menard	Richard Childress Racing	+5000
38.	31	Ryan Newman	Richard Childress Racing	+4000
39.	59	Michael McDowell	Circle Sport-Leavine Family Racing	+15000
40.	26	Robert Richardson Jr.	BK Racing	+15000

Chase Elliott, at 20 years old, became the youngest driver to earn the pole position, and Matt Kenseth was right on his tail in the No. 2 spot. They finished in the top two of the opening qualifying race and set the stage for the two Can-Am races for spots No. 3 through No. 40.

Earnhardt, in addition to capturing duel No. 1, also had the fastest practice lap on Saturday and reached 197.131 mph, per the Associated Press.

Odds Shark placed its faith in Earnhardt Jr. as the favorite, but it is not feeling as confident in Elliott despite the fact he holds the pole position. He also won the PowerShares QQQ 300 Xfinity race Saturday at Daytona with this dramatic finish, per NASCAR:

If you're looking for a bit of a dark horse, it could be the 40-year-old Johnson. Although he's been one of the best drivers the past decade, the rest of the field has caught up with him the past few years. Mark Taylor of RotoWire (via FoxSports.com), said Johnson could surprise on Sunday:

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The six-time champion has a very up-and-down history with superspeedway racing and Daytona in particular. The loop stats bear a respectable 89.2 driver rating but that doesn't account for his inconsistency at the large oval. Johnson swept both Daytona races in 2013, so he's quite capable of dominating if he can avoid the accidents. The last three years have held a lot of success for the No. 48 team at Daytona. Johnson has two victories and five Top-5 finishes in those six events. In addition, the Hendrick Motorsports star has led close to 250 laps across the last five restrictor-plate races. Johnson may not be one of the top contenders to win, but he's certainly a very strong sleeper in this competitive field of drivers.

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There's obviously a ton of talent on the track, and it's hard to tell this early in the season who has any actual race momentum. However, if any driver does have some momentum coming into this race, it's Earnhardt Jr. 

He has the Can-Am victory in his back pocket—along with the fastest lap—and seems as confident as ever. 

Parker Kligerman of NBC Sports Network explained why he thinks the No. 88 driver has the best chance to win, per NASCAR on NBC:

Earnhardt also is happy with his car—dubbed Amelia Earhart—that won three races for him last season, and he never finished worse than third in five races with the vehicle, per Jenna Fryer of the AP (h/t the Morning Call).

"The car really does everything I ask it to do," Earnhardt said after his win. "When you have a car that you know can do the things that this car can do, you're willing to take those gambles and risks to pull out and pass. It's just a fun car to drive. Really special car." 

Earnhardt said he'd be just fine leaving Amelia in Daytona for a year to go on display as customary of the winning car, and the chances look good he'll be finding a new ride next week.

All racing odds per Odds Shark unless otherwise noted.