Red Light, Green Light: Evaluating Rumors Approaching NBA Trade Deadline
Believe it or not, NBA trades are actually happening.
We've already seen the Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic agree on a deal centered around Tobias Harris on Tuesday. The Charlotte Hornets, meanwhile, acquired Courtney Lee from the Memphis Grizzlies in a three-team trade on the same day.
But those are mere splashes leading up to the Feb. 18 deadline.
If some of the following rumors come true, they'll send waves throughout the league.
Blake Griffin Available
Blake Griffin's season hasn't gone according to plan.
First, he suffered a significant quadriceps injury on Christmas Day—a lump of coal for any NBA player. Then, the Los Angeles Clippers power forward cemented his status on the naughty list by breaking his hand in a spat with the team's equipment manager, leading to a more prolonged absence and a four-game suspension that will begin as soon as he's healthy.
According to ESPN.com's Zach Lowe, the Clippers might not be willing to wait for his return:
"Conflicting noise is spouting from Clipperville, but the smart money is on L.A. waiting until the summer to really get busy on the Griffin front. Doc Rivers wants to give this core one last postseason shot, and the Clips need Griffin just in case Kevin Durant picks them, triggering a Griffin-for-Durant sign-and-trade.
But the Griffin noise is real. He's no longer untouchable. The Clips are listening, even right now, and they've rarely listened before. If they get wind over the next four days that they're out of the Durant sweepstakes, they could accelerate the Griffin trade timetable. It'd take a monster offer to pry him away before the draft, but the ground is trembling.
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The departure of untouchable status confirms the veracity of all the other rumors we've been hearing in recent weeks.
"A Western source confirmed the Celtics were one of a number of teams calling the Clippers to see if Blake Griffin is, indeed, on the menu," Steve Bulpett wrote for the Boston Herald. "But the result of those inquiries has thus far been that, while the Clips are listening, they have no real intention of moving the star forward."
If Lowe is correct, that's potentially changing. And the Boston Celtics could become serious players, given their dizzying array of movable players and near-limitless supply of draft picks. General manager Danny Ainge is more than capable of making a monster offer, though it would presumably require him parting with the Brooklyn Nets' unprotected 2016 first-round pick.
The Denver Nuggets have also been mentioned as a possible Griffin destination, though various sources have the story unfolding in different ways. First, Dan Woike of the Orange County Register:
On the flip side, Broussard said on SportsCenter (via NBC Sports' Dan Feldman), "I was told that the Clippers actually called Denver and offered Blake Griffin and Lance Stephenson for Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried, Nikola Jokic and Will Barton. And Denver turned it down."
Who you side with here is irrelevant. What matters is that teams have legitimate interest and are embarking upon trade conversations. As they should.
Regardless of whether the Clippers pull the trigger and ship Griffin off to a new location, they're doing the right thing by shopping him and listening to offers. Adding convincing depth may well be more valuable than maintaining a Big Three prone to early exits from the postseason, and it's not like the power forward's recent actions have endeared him to the organization.
Plus, L.A. has somehow been better since he got hurt.
"Love it," head coach Doc Rivers told Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times during the All-Star break. "Couldn't be in a better place, especially when you factor in the injuries, especially to a top-10 player and what we've gone through, I'll take that all year, every day, so it's nice."
Rivers has reason to enjoy such warm feelings. The Clippers have gone a stunning 18-5 since Griffin first went down, outscoring the opposition by 7.4 points per 100 possessions. Thanks to the heroics of Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan, they're rolling toward home-court advantage in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.
All of that makes it much easier to digest the idea of trading a franchise centerpiece. They may not actually deal him before Feb. 18, but they're thinking about it.
Verdict: Green light
High Asking Price for Markieff Morris
In the NBA, there's this concept called leverage.
The Phoenix Suns have none of it when it comes to Markieff Morris.
The disgruntled forward started to ruin any bargaining power when he publicly demanded a trade this offseason as recompense for the deal that sent his twin brother, Marcus, to the Detroit Pistons. Even after he went back on those words, the two-game suspension that resulted from the towel he threw at now-former head coach Jeff Hornacek again devalued him on the open market.
He's now in hot water again after getting into a shoving match with teammate Archie Goodwin just before the All-Star break.
"That's part of being a big brother, being a leader," the power forward told reporters after the kerfuffle. "Sometimes little brothers and big brothers get into it. That's what happened—wrong place, wrong time."
If Morris is a leader on this team, that explains a lot—why it was necessary to fire Hornacek midway through the year and why the Suns are emerging from the midseason festivities with a 14-40 record that leaves them ahead of only the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference.
Plus, he's been awful on the court for most of the season. Morris is averaging 11.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists while shooting 39.7 percent from the field and 28.9 percent from beyond the arc, but the advanced metrics look even worse.
The Suns have been 2.1 points per 100 possessions worse when he plays. His player efficiency rating has declined for the third consecutive season, to the point that it now sits at a below-league-average 11.1. My total points added metric (TPA, which is explained in full throughout this article) puts him on pace to finish ahead of only 21 players in the entire Association.
And in the wake of all this, the Suns are demanding so much in return for his services that it seems they're still living in 2013-14, when Morris finished behind only Jamal Crawford, Taj Gibson and Manu Ginobili in Sixth Man of the Year voting.
"Multiple teams who have made pitches for Phoenix Suns forward Markieff Morris suggest a first-round pick hasn't been enough to engage the Suns in trade talks," The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski recently reported. "Suns general manager Ryan McDonough has been pursuing a package that includes a younger player and a first-round pick, league executives said."
In the words of the immortal Steven Tyler: Dream on.
Verdict: Red light
Al Horford on the Move
The Atlanta Hawks have arrived at the proverbial fork in the road, and the clock is ticking. Fortunately, both potential paths promise a possible light at the end of the tunnel.
If the Hawks stay the course and attempt to fight for a top seed in the Eastern Conference, they could earn home-court advantage for the first round. And if they make it past the opening battle, anything could happen. A repeat of last year's trip to the postseason's penultimate series is a possibility, and you never know what kind of havoc the injury imp could wreak on an opponent.
But Atlanta could also blow up its current core by trading Jeff Teague and Al Horford. The former's replacement is already on the roster (Dennis Schroder), and the latter is operating on the last year of his contract, likely waiting to sign a max deal this summer.
"To put it politely, the league is skeptical this is anything more than a Hawks fishing expedition designed to gin up one crazy offer for Horford," Lowe reported for ESPN.com. "Wes Wilcox, Atlanta's GM, is asking teams to 'wow' him, sources say, and no one is biting."
This is why we can't give a red or green light yet.
Atlanta isn't being forced to deal its All-Star center. That option is available should the right deal present itself, but the only reason Wilcox would feel compelled to pull the trigger is if Horford made it clear he wouldn't return on a new contract. And that, per Lowe, isn't what's happening:
"The Hawks may not be fretting as much as it seems about Horford walking. Horford will look around, and he likes the idea of playing in a bigger media market with a larger Dominican population, per several sources familiar with the matter. But he also cherishes the continuity Atlanta has built, and the Hawks understand he is the keystone to their culture of [selflessness]. If the Hawks keep Horford into the summer, they will have that extra fifth year in the quiver.
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So far, nothing has been tempting enough. Maybe nothing will be.
But for the Hawks, that's fine. No matter which path they choose to travel for the rest of 2015-16, they're in control.
Verdict: Yellow light
Houston Rockets Searching for a Dwight Howard Suitor
Every once in a while, you're faced with a glaring dichotomy between actual and perceived value. Unfortunately for the Houston Rockets, the teams attempting to trade for their starting center are looking at the former, even if the Rockets want to receive compensation for the latter.
The Charlotte Hornets are the latest to engage in this conundrum, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein:
"Sources told ESPN.com that the Hornets and Rockets have held exploratory talks on a potential Howard deal since Houston made him available last week. But one source close to the talks expressed pessimism Tuesday that the sides will be able to find common ground on a deal.
The Rockets are believed to be seeking at least one future first-round pick for Howard, who is earning $22.3 million this season and is expected to exercise his right to decline next season's $23.3 million player option to return to free agency in July.
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Despite the first half of his career putting him on a Hall of Fame trajectory, Howard is far from a sure thing in 2016. He comes with chemistry concerns, a history of back injuries, an occasional unwillingness to play to his strengths and a contract that contains an opt-out clause after this season.
According to Wojnarowski, he's a non-starter for the Hornets, at least given the current asking price:
This comes on the heels of another Howard report, this time involving the Boston Celtics. Per Adam Himmelsbach of the Boston Globe:
"The Celtics have been linked to Rockets center Dwight Howard and Hawks forward Al Horford, both of whom could be available on the trade market. But sources said the Celtics are unlikely to acquire either player before Thursday’s deadline.
The Celtics currently have almost no interest in trading for Howard, 30, a talented center with a history of back issues and a questionable work ethic. He can opt out of his contract at season’s end, and even if he wanted to re-sign with Boston, the team would have reservations about offering a long-term deal. Also, Howard is not viewed as a player who would help attract another top free agent to Boston this summer.
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Rumors about the Miami Heat shipping Hassan Whiteside to Houston (via Frank Isola of the New York Daily News) have similarly gone nowhere.
It's clear the Rockets wouldn't mind trading Howard. They may even be actively looking to trade him by initiating some of these aforementioned discussions—as well as furtive ones we haven't yet gotten wind of. But there's a yawning chasm between how Houston values its center and how the rest of the league does, which isn't leading to any fruitful discussions.
Verdict: Red light
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball-Reference.com or Adam Fromal's own databases and are current through the All-Star break.
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