The Best Option at Every Position on the 2016 NBA Trade Market
Here's the scenario: Your favorite NBA team is pursuing an upgrade at a certain position ahead of Thursday's trade deadline, and you're losing sleep trying to figure out the best, most realistic target.
Well, consider your dilemma solved.
Players must ostensibly be available to join our fray. Hot names that have been deemed untouchable for now—Blake Griffin, for example, per CBS Sports' Ken Berger—do not count as feasible possibilities.
Singling out the best of the best from there is a matter of contract status, statistical performance and a player's ability to make an impact on a different team. So, in other words, we won't mention Omer Asik.
Point Guard: Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks
Jeff Teague's rumor mill keeps churning out new material.
The Atlanta Hawks have made him available, according to ESPN.com's Kevin Arnovitz and Brian Windhorst, and at this point, his departure feels like a formality. Dennis Schroder will be extension-eligible after this season, and Atlanta needs to reconcile last year's 60-win anomaly with the product it's fielding now.
Shipping Teague ahead of the trade deadline would be a way for the Hawks to maximize their return on an unavoidable transition. He is signed through 2016-17, will make a ridiculously reasonable $8 million next season and continues to put up starry numbers.
Stephen Curry is the only other player collecting at least 15 points and five assists per game while shooting 40 percent or better from beyond the arc. Teague's player efficiency rating has taken a dive but remains comfortably above average.
His performance out of pick-and-rolls is more troubling. Teague is scoring just 0.76 points per pick-and-roll possession, which ranks in the bottom seven of all players with at least 250 such touches, and he too often eschews screens that open him up to impromptu defensive traps:
Still, Teague is a borderline All-Star at his position. He won't reinvent an offense on his own, but he could transition into any setting, whether it's as a high-usage driver, half-court tarrier or orbiting sniper.
Surround him with three or four shooters, and he will work that space to perfection. And so long as his success rate at the rim improves—a reasonable assumption given he's been much more efficient from point-blank range in the past—he could be the midseason difference-maker that guides a team on the fringes toward a long-awaited leap.
Shooting Guard: Victor Oladipo, Orlando Magic
According to Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler, the Orlando Magic "have at least explored" the possibility of trading Victor Oladipo. He was mentioned specifically as bait for a Teague trade, but Orlando's open-mindedness keeps in theme with what ESPN.com's Marc Stein heard:
Oladipo has taken a slight step back in his third year. His three-point percentage is at an all-time high, but he's shooting career lows from inside 10 feet of the basket. Head coach Scott Skiles has tried staggering Oladipo's minutes with Elfrid Payton and went as far as relegating Oladipo to bench duty for 20 games.
But Oladipo remains one of the NBA's most interchangeable backcourt talents. He can play and defend either guard position, and the Magic's offense approaches statistical respectability when he's on the floor.
Rival shooters already struggle to convert threes when Oladipo challenges them, and he's good at holding his ground against burlier ball-handlers. Place at least one capable rim protector behind him at all times, something Orlando cannot do, and his attempts to jump passing lanes become a defensive boon:
Just five players are matching Oladipo's benchmarks of 16 points, five rebounds, four assists and 1.5 steals per 36 minutes: Curry, Paul George, Manu Ginobili, James Harden and Russell Westbrook. Oladipo isn't the shooter or inarguable superstar most of his statistical sibs are, but he's all of 23, two years younger than anyone else in this group.
Whichever suitor chases Oladipo will have to pay him on the next side of the salary-cap boom, and that's a concern. But that team can delay that payday until 2017, when he enters restricted free agency, which would give it more than one full season to integrate him into the offense.
Seldom, if ever, does a top-five draftee become available this early in his career—especially when he's no bust. Getting in on the ground floor of Oladipo's development, then, would be a no-brainer for any backcourt buyer.
Small Forward: Tobias Harris, Orlando Magic
Tobias Harris is on the chopping block!
Well, sort of, per Stein:
It hasn't been happily ever after for Harris after he signed a four-year, $64 million contract over the summer to stay on with Orlando. His three-point percentage has cratered, and Skiles has liberally shifted him between the 3 and 4 spots.
Splitting time at two positions shouldn't be a detriment to any modern-day forward. But the Magic aren't getting Harris enough touches regardless of the lineup. His usage rate is at an all-time low as Orlando struggles to incorporate its bevy of ball-dominant guards (Oladipo, Payton) and wings (Evan Fournier, Mario Hezonja).
Last season, when he was given more freedom to attack off the dribble, Harris dabbled in spot-up marksmanship, putting down 38 percent of his catch-and-shoot triples. Another team with fewer mouths to feed and better spacing could capitalize on that functional symmetry—of which Harris is still fully capable:
Even now, amid diminished usage and a dip in outside accuracy, Harris stands as one of the Magic's most valuable assets. He trails only Nikola Vucevic in win shares and is one of four Orlando players with a positive box plus-minus on both ends of the floor.
Moving the $48 million remaining on Harris' deal after this season while securing an adequate return could prove challenging. Harris exists within that gray area between stardom and role-player status, and there won't be a ton of teams willing to compromise cap flexibility ahead of the upcoming offseason's financial upswing.
But Harris is still just 23 and on a pre-eruption contract in which his annual earnings decrease in the last two years. There is no other available trade chip that similarly balances upside with experience and affordability with long-term security.
Power Forward: Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Pelicans
Outside suitors are trying to coax Ryan Anderson out of New Orleans to no avail. The Pelicans are taking phone calls but have, according to Berger, resisted the temptation to make him officially available.
General manager Dell Demps is going to soften that stance. Anderson will be up for a huge raise in free agency, and everyday he isn't moved adversely impacts his market appeal. Buyers aren't as eager to acquire expiring pacts because they'll probably have cap space this summer, and owning a player's Bird rights isn't as imperative when yearly salaries are set to skyrocket.
But Anderson is having the kind of season that trumps capology. He's averaging more than 16 points and six rebounds per game and burying 38. percent of his long balls. The New Orleans offense improves by nearly two points per 100 possessions with him in the game, and he has a better offensive box plus-minus than Anthony Davis.
Anderson is still the quintessential stretch 4 almost a decade into his career. He is a lights-out floor-spacer, yes, but as the job description for playmaking power forwards has evolved, he's gradually worked other modes of attack into his repertoire.
Pull-up jumpers have been basically eradicated from his arsenal. Where Anderson used to wilt against close-outs, pump-faking only to prematurely jack up a low-percentage look, he now attacks all the way through. His drives per game are up from last season, and he's shooting over 60 percent on any sort of off-the-dribble attempt:
This is not to say Anderson has lost his affinity for deep-ball theatrics. He is finding nylon on more than 40 percent of his catch-and-shoot treys, and his accuracy from Stephen Curry range is, well, worthy of Curry himself, per Synergy Sports:
For all of Anderson's defensive shortcomings—good luck lining him up against like forwards—he moves the needle enough on offense to be coveted by any team in need of a finishing touch for its frontcourt.
Center: Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
In an effort to facilitate a reset of sorts, Atlanta is, per Arnovitz and Windhorst, contemplating whether to put Al Horford up for grabs. Marc J. Spears of Yahoo Sports also reported the Hawks are "expected to listen to teams that inquire about Horford because they don't want to risk losing him for nothing."
Horford has spent his entire career in Atlanta and, per Spears, is optimistic about the team's future. But the threat of organizations from bigger markets swooping in and sweeping the three-time All-Star off his feet in free agency looms large.
"Atlanta has the potential for a guy like myself to maximize [the business] part of it," Horford told Spears. "But obviously there are other cities, bigger cities that are more appealing probably [business- and marketing-wise]. The impact would be bigger if that is what you are looking for."
The Hawks cannot demand as much in return for the 29-year-old Horford as the Sacramento Kings can for DeMarcus Cousins because the former is both older and a flight risk. Deadline aggressors have the chance to sell Atlana on a package that, under most circumstances, would be deemed a bargain.
And "bargain" isn't a word typically associated with superstars. But Horford, who is earning just $12 million this season, is already a bargain. And he's most assuredly a superstar—a stretch center with excellent vision and a knack for changing shots at the rim.
Opponents are shooting less than 49 percent at the iron when challenged by Horford, and he is averaging 15 points, six rebounds, three assists and one block per game for the second straight season. Cousins and Marc Gasol are the only other players doing the same.
Mix in an ability to stretch defenses with an almost-average three-point stroke, and Horford becomes a true franchise-changer. Seriously. He is on pace to eclipse 1,000 points, 250 assists, 100 blocks and 80 made three-pointers—something that, to this point, has only ever been accomplished three times:
Kevin Durant. Dwyane Wade. Peak Lamar Odom. That's some incredible company, and the fact that no one has done this since Durant in 2012-13 speaks to what Horford brings to the table.
Not to mention everything he could do for any team smart enough to meet Atlanta's asking price.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and accurate leading into All-Star break unless otherwise noted. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @danfavale.
