Johny Hendricks vs. Stephen Thompson: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
What was supposed to be the UFC 196 co-main event is now the UFC Fight Night 82 main event.
No. 2-ranked welterweight contender Johny Hendricks (17-3) meets No. 8-ranked Stephen Thompson (11-1) Saturday in Las Vegas.
Since 2013, Hendricks is 3-2 with two split-decision losses in title tilts (Georges St-Pierre, Robbie Lawler). His last match was a victory over Matt Brown, but he had to be pulled from a UFC 192 contest against Tyron Woodley due to medical issues after a poor weight cut.
In that same time span, Thompson is 5-0. After dropping a fight to Brown at UFC 145, Thompson has become one of the hottest fighters in the UFC. Thompson's spinning-hook-kick knockout of Jake Ellenberger moved him solidly into contention at 170 pounds.
This fight will have a significant impact on the title picture. So, who has the edge this Saturday?
That is what we will take a gander at in this head-to-toe breakdown of UFC Fight Night 82's main event.
Striking
1 of 5
On the feet, this fight is skill vs. power. Thompson has incredible skill, and Hendricks has monstrous power.
Thompson is one of the more decorated strikers in the UFC today. His extensive karate and kickboxing background has made him one of the most exciting fighters to watch in the welterweight division. And now he is winning with techniques such as the aforementioned spinning hook kick. Fans are constantly on the edge of their seats.
But all it takes is one clean shot from Hendricks, and Thompson does get hit. The last two times Thompson went to a decision—both wins—he ate over 50 significant strikes each time, per FightMetric.
Thompson's overall skill gives him the decided edge standing. His biggest advantage is the knowledge of how to use his length to avoid letting Hendricks inside. That will prevent Hendricks from landing the big right hand. If Thompson can keep the former champion on the outside, then his chances of winning go up drastically.
Edge: Thompson
Grappling
2 of 5
Thompson has made great strides in his wrestling since losing to Matt Brown, but he is still nowhere near Hendricks' level.
If this becomes a grappling contest, then Hendricks should be able to run away with the fight.
Hendricks is a former two-time national champion at Oklahoma State University and four-time All-American. There aren't many in the sport of MMA who can match his credentials. Thompson is outmatched by a substantial margin.
No surprises here. Hendricks is easily the better grappler.
Edge: Hendricks
Submissions
3 of 5
This is, by far, the most difficult category to break down. Neither fighter is a jiu-jitsu specialist, and neither fighter attempts many submissions.
Due to his grappling advantage, Hendricks will likely have the better position to attack with submissions. Thompson would have to be active off his back, but he will likely be too busy defending Hendricks' advances.
Hendricks has been in the cage against better submission artists, and he has never been in much danger. Only Rick Story and GSP have logged submission attempts against him during his UFC tenure.
The rule of position before submission is what tips the scale in favor of Hendricks.
Edge: Hendricks
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X-Factors
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Hendricks' X-Factor: Closing the Distance
Hendricks' boxing is not all that great, and it is his massive power that makes it scary. His power will be virtually useless if he is stuck on the outside, and his wrestling will be hurt as well.
How Hendricks closes the distance will be a big factor in how this fight plays out.
Cutting off the cage to force Thompson to fight on his heels will make Hendricks a much more effective fighter. That is the fight Hendricks wants to have this weekend.
Thompson's X-Factor: Leg Kicks
Hendricks' wrestling credentials may dissuade Thompson from throwing leg kicks, but it shouldn't. Why?
If Thompson can establish leg kicks, then he will make Hendricks think about the complete striking game offered. Is it a risky proposition? Yes. Hendricks could catch a kick and take him down. But it is something Thompson should risk early in the fight.
Leg kicks will also have a lasting impact in a five-round fight. They could lessen Hendricks' mobility if delivered to his legs or tire him out if landed to the body. Leg kicks are a tool that Thompson shouldn't shy away from just because Hendricks may take him down.
Thompson needs to keep his full arsenal available regardless of the risks.
Prediction
5 of 5
I have wavered on this fight for some time. I am bullish on Thompson, but I just can't settle on him against Hendricks.
Hendricks' ability to eat power punches is ultimately why I am on his side. He stood toe-to-toe with Lawler and GSP. He took shots from Carlos Condit as well. That gives me hope that he can wade through some strikes from Thompson in order to score takedowns.
Thompson won't go quietly into the night, but the grind and pressure from Hendricks will slowly drain him over the course of five rounds.
Hendricks will get the finish, but it will come deep into the fight. A technical knockout moves Hendricks back into title-shot talks for 2016.
Prediction: Hendricks defeats Thompson by TKO in the fifth round
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