Ranking the Top 10 Men's Players After the 2016 Australian Open
Novak Djokovic made it look easy in defeating Andy Murray in straight sets for the 2016 Australian Open title, but many great players are clustered in the ATP rankings. Major tournaments do more than crown champions; they show who is ready to ride momentum and who will need to get up off the mat.
Our top-10 rankings do not reflect the ATP’s yearlong tabulation of points for each player. We appraise how the stars are playing now and look at their prospects for upcoming tournaments.
Who is trending up and who is backpedaling? We count them all down in the following slides, including extra championship commentary for Djokovic and Murray.
Honorable Mention: France's Modern Four Musketeers
1 of 11
The Four Musketeers were France’s legendary quartet who dominated tennis nearly a century ago. And while the French have hardly dented the Grand Slam scene in the 21st century, their modern musketeers have combined for a decade of consistently fine play and are worthy of an honorable mention at the 2016 Australian Open.
The surprise was Gilles Simon, who produced the most surprising match of the tournament, pushing Novak Djokovic into 100 unforced errors in five sets. The thin, counterpunching retriever stuck to his game plan in that fourth round and showed the depth of talent that belongs just outside the top 10.
Not to be outdone, Gael Monfils maximized his opportunities to reach the fourth round before falling to Milos Raonic’s powerful serve and improved movement. Always the entertainer, he is keeping pace with Richard Gasquet and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in terms of tennis that is as appetizing as golden French toast with powdered sugar.
They will look for steadier play during the spring when the slower court surfaces play well for each of them. For now, they reside on the fringes of the top 10.
10. Tomas Berdych
2 of 11
ATP Ranking: 8
Credit Big Bird for holding his nerve to defeat Australia’s own dynamic and talented potential star Nick Kyrgios. The difference? Berdych’s baseline consistency controlled the pace and rhythm of the match, which contrasted with Kyrgios’ flashy theatrics and lack of composure. That’s why the veteran Berdych is top-10 material.
Berdych was not able to stay with Roger Federer after dropping the first-set tiebreaker in the quarterfinals, but that’s hardly the tournament’s biggest surprise.
As usual, Berdych is not trending up or sliding much. He dropped two spots in the ATP rankings, but it has almost no bearing on how we measure him going forward. He’s like tropical weather—warm and steady but not earth-shattering. He could win a mid-major and compete for the semifinals at a Masters 1000 tournament, and that’s where the story will end.
9. Marin Cilic
3 of 11
ATP Ranking: 13
It was a disappointment to see Marin Cilic’s listless play in a third-round loss to Roberto Bautista Agut. More importantly, it’s another curious and even maddening example of how the talented Croatian cannot take care of so many matches that he should dominate.
We’re intrigued with his power, but at age 27 we should be discussing his prime, not musing on his potential. His 2014 U.S. Open title is becoming more surreal with the passing months.
The bald-faced truth is that Cilic should be competing harder and challenging for more big titles. He’s a nightmare for anyone when he’s playing in the zone, but the problem is that his zone may as well be in the Bermuda Triangle. How about his desire?
Who is the real Cilic? Will he construct more of a game plan to use his serve and forehand? Can he develop a little more fitness and quickness to help his defense transition better to shot making? Too many questions.
He needs a big spring if he wants to peak for summer’s major titles.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
8. David Ferrer
4 of 11
ATP Ranking: 6
Don’t look back because you won’t see David Ferrer. That’s right—the little Spaniard (5'9", 160 lbs) is picking up the pace as his career stretches into his mid-30s. He’s better now than he was a year ago when the ATP rankings listed him at No. 10, and he’s coming off yet another quarterfinals appearance in a major (the 17th time he has made it at least this far in a major).
He deserves props for the way he dismantled giant server John Isner and another gritty award for his four-set defeat to Andy Murray. The point is that Ferrer will be looking at another strong run in the months ahead, from hard courts to clay and wherever he can find an obscure draw for a 250-point title.
He’s probably not going to win another Masters 1000 title or get to the French Open final, but he might grind down a few big stars from time to time. No fear from Ferrer.
7. Rafael Nadal
5 of 11
ATP Ranking: 5
It’s not panic time for Rafael Nadal, but all of the steady work he built up late in 2015 seems to have been a smokescreen if the last two matches are a fair barometer.
On one hand, it matters very much. Novak Djokovic crushed him in the Doha final, and then Nadal ran out of gas in the fourth and fifth sets against journeyman star Fernando Verdasco in the Australian Open’s first round. His legs looked weary, and he was unable to generate the punch and depth he needs to control a match.
On the other hand, Nadal has plenty of time to build up his game during the upcoming months in pursuit of his title opportunities on clay. All of that will be scrutinized as the weeks unfold.
For now, the Spanish champion is trending down, and there are certainly six other players who are better title threats in upcoming tournaments. It would be foolish to write Nadal’s obituary, and he could well have a few great streaks left in his battered body, but he's a couple of years removed from his championship form.
6. Kei Nishikori
6 of 11
ATP Ranking: 7
Nishikori is a dynamic ball-striker at his best, capable of hijacking baseline opponents with imaginative and quick-thinking angles. At other times, he can be overpowered by heavier strokes from players like Stan Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic.
He did what was expected in the Australian Open in getting to the quarterfinals, but he had to face an angry, motivated Djokovic, who no doubt wanted to end things quickly after spending five sets with counterpuncher Gilles Simon. Nishikori was a victim of circumstances in part, but like the rest of the tour he is no match for the Serbian.
Looking ahead, expect another strong spring from the Japanese star, especially in April and May, as he has become one of the top clay-court players in the world. If some of the bigger stars fall, a healthy Nishikori is ready to swoop in for a couple of titles.
Nishikori has a lower ceiling than Nadal but fewer question marks, so we give him the nod for No. 6.
5. Milos Raonic
7 of 11
ATP Ranking: 11
Milos Raonic won the Brisbane final against Roger Federer, who had a bout with the flu. Then Raonic flexed his muscle by outlasting Stan Wawrinka in the fourth round of the Australian Open on his way to the semifinals. He gave Andy Murray a look at his noticeably improved game, finally bowing down in the fifth set after struggling with the misfortune of an adductor injury, which limited his serve and movement.
Is Raonic ready to be a consistent major contender? The signs are good right now. New coach Carlos Moya has him bouncing more on his feet, and that little burst of anticipation and effort is paying off with better returns, smarter net finishes and improved baseline play. Suddenly, he has support for his cannon serve.
Is it a stretch to move him to No. 5? Is he more likely to win a major in 2016 than Nishikori or Nadal? Raonic might not have their impact in the French Open, but watch out at Wimbledon.
It just might be time for tennis' next generation to come of age.
4. Stan Wawrinka
8 of 11
ATP Ranking: 4
Maybe Stan Wawrinka figures that his ugly 2015 French Open shorts should inspire more atrocious outfits and major titles. So, there's some relief for tennis fans who watched his mid-tournament exit. Hopefully, he will donate his outfit to a local prison. That orange-yellow combo looked like he was bursting in flames on planet Mercury. Next outfit, please.
The fourth-round loss to Raonic was his first Australian Open defeat to someone other than Novak Djokovic since 2012. Then, he was merely the No. 21 seed losing in straight sets to No. 10 Nicolas Almagro. Wawrinka was a different player back then—less fit, more vulnerable to corner retrievals and far from being considered a major contender.
How many years or months does Wawrinka have to go after more big titles? He likes the first half of the year and would love to grab a couple Masters of 1000 titles to go with his 2014 Monte Carlo trophy. He should be much better than his 2015 spring swoon, and then we will see if he can defend his French Open title.
3. Roger Federer
9 of 11
ATP Ranking: 3
While Roger Federer continues to insist that “margins are small out there,” per ATPWorldTour.com, the evidence of the beating he took for two sets was a different story. The 6-1, 6-2 count to open the semifinals was identical to the Doha sets in which Djokovic smashed Nadal. It’s scary now that Djokovic can pounce on two of the greatest players of all time as if they were hitting partners.
But Federer’s variety and mental toughness were admirable as he took the third set and hung tough in the fourth before Djokovic suddenly reeled off six points to end the match. That’s the real problem Federer faces against the Serbian—that he cannot sustain his best play for three sets.
Although Federer is going to reduce much of his springtime schedule, he is still really the second-best bet to win most tournaments he enters. There’s great tennis ahead, and maybe the Swiss will get a chance to knock off somebody else for one more major title. That is, if Djokovic decides to let the field in on his tournaments.
Federer will trail Andy Murray this spring with ranking points and tournaments, but by summer we could tap him as the favorite (besides Djokovic) to win huge tournaments. He’s certainly been the better head-to-head player when dueling the Scot in majors.
2. Andy Murray
10 of 11
ATP Ranking: 2
There’s not much else Andy Murray can do. He fights and puts his body and soul into his groundstrokes, but it’s no longer enough to defeat Novak Djokovic in a major. Born a week before the Serbian, Murray is the little brother in their tennis relationship. His game is a credible facsimile, but it takes a special and rare performance to keep pace with King Novak.
Once again, second place was a huge gap.
It was all or nothing for Murray in the second set. You could see the urgency he displayed to claw and scratch his way to the lead. Late in the second set, cameras flashed to him immediately after every losing point, and he would either scowl and shake his head or yell out in frustration. To his credit, he battled back, but the second set drained him, and it was inevitable that he would not grind out a miracle marathon.
Murray hit as hard as he could, but he could not deter Djokovic, who stayed the course and challenged Murray’s sustainability. The Scot finally cracked late in the second to lose an 80-minute set, reminiscent of a set in the 2012 Australian Open final that featured Rafael Nadal and Djokovic in their grueling classic.
What’s next for Murray after rest and time at home? Can he use the upcoming Masters 1000 tournaments to lift his game and close the gap on Djokovic? Unless he can adopt Pete Sampras’ second serve, Murray can only look forward with the dogged approach he has used time and again over the past decade after licking his wounds against his superstar contemporaries.
Maybe Murray can get one special performance in a major final in 2016. That has to be his mindset.
1. Novak Djokovic
11 of 11
It’s good to be the king. While Federer, Nadal, Murray and the rest of the tour wonder if Novak Djokovic will eventually come down to earth, the Serbian keeps piling it on.
He knows how to race out in fifth gear and claim the first set with the kind of invincibility that is every bit psychological. Then, he patiently locks into cruise control to see if Murray or anyone else can keep pace. He’s cool and collected in closing out matches, and if anything goes wrong during the match, he keeps his head and knows that his talent will win out in volume.
One enormous weapon against Murray in the final was Djokovic's cross-court forehand. He often unloaded to the Scot’s deuce corner, winning the point outright or breaking him down. Murray knew that he had to increase his pace, and he did, but at the cost of 65 unforced errors in three sets. Djokovic’s dominance of a match is only partially seen in the stats. He forced Murray to play with a lot less margin.
It was interesting to watch Djokovic in the second set, when he held back Murray’s biggest charge. He toweled off more frequently, preparing to pace himself as if he knew it could turn into a long match. It was not the same ferocious adrenaline he gets playing against Nadal; it was almost as if he had to remind himself to hold back and pick his spots rather than go for too much too soon.
Djokovic continues his climb up the ladder of legends. He is tied with Rod Laver and Bjorn Borg with 11 majors, but there will surely be more to come. He’s three away from Pete Sampras and Nadal, and it’s not completely far-fetched that he get there by September. Even Roger Federer's 17 majors no longer seems an impossible dream.
For now, only one thing will matter from here on out. Will Djokovic finally win the French Open and likewise complete a “Novak Slam” with four major titles in a row?
Four months, a lot of tennis and endless scrutiny will not make this an easy task, even for the great King Novak.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
