It's 2016 or Never for Men's Tennis' Next Generation to Become Elite Players

Tennis star Milos Raonic might have lost a five-set semifinal match to Andy Murray in the 2016 Australian Open, but it could signal the beginning of greater accomplishments. The 25-year-old Canadian is one of the biggest hopes for tennis’ next generation—those born in the early 1990s.

Kei Nishikori (born a few days before 1990), Grigor Dimitrov, Bernard Tomic and Raonic head this emerging generation of potential stars. They are accompanied by other talented hopefuls like David Goffin and Jack Sock. Collectively, they have been late in arriving as legitimate Grand Slam contenders—more disappointing than decorated and sometimes labeled at tennis’ “Lost Generation.”

Do Raonic and company have the talent and strength to eventually emerge as elite players? Nobody’s expecting them to be the second coming of golden superstars Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, but maybe one or more of them will win a couple of majors like Andy Murray or Stan Wawrinka. ESPN commentator Darren Cahill made note of Raonic's "new-look game plan":

Tennis fans have been waiting for the last few years, but 2016 might be the final word on the Lost Generation’s chances to make a big impact in the near future.

The clock is ticking.

Taking Stock of the Talent

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No more excuses, right? The Lost Generation has had plenty of years to mature into contenders. They have had front-row seats to legendary superstars and their decade of heroics. They’ve gained experience, had occasional flashes of brilliance and suffered a few big-match losses. They understand they must train like Spartans and win with mental toughness.

Do they truly possess enough talent to be consistent winners, or will their creative bursts show too many fatal flaws to become dominators? Right now, their accomplishments and exploits might be ranked accordingly:

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Nishikori: The Japanese star made his move in 2014 with finals appearances in Madrid and the U.S. Open. When healthy, he can be a baseline wizard with his quick strikes and impressive angles. Otherwise, he more or less stayed on the second-tier plateau in 2015.

He will need help with bracket chaos and great timing if he is to one day win a major. He could be this generation’s more talented version of David Ferrer, but it’s also unlikely he will be as durable.

Dimitrov: The Bulgarian has the finest all-around tools of the Lost Generation. Too much has been made in comparing him to Federer, but he does have excellent footwork and the serve and forehand that could produce major championships.

Sporadic game strategies and too much comfort in playing defensive tennis have held him back. He also seemed to wear down under former coach Roger Rasheed who demands his players commit to top physical conditioning.

Will Dimitrov find the aggression and stamina to augment his brilliant talent? At Brisbane and Melbourne showed, he split his first two sets with Federer but faded away when the heat was turned up. There’s still time for him to be a force, and he has a good chance of rising into the elite eight by year’s end.

Raonic: He and Dimitrov roared into the 2014 Wimbledon semifinals but were easily dismissed by Federer and Djokovic, respectively. Then they evaporated with disappointing play and circumstances through 2015.

Raonic’s biggest stumbling block was a foot injury last May that required time off and missing tournaments. He’s trying to rebuild his game by adding coach Carlos Moya to help with baseline stability, and he’s learning to attack better at net.

He possesses a massive serve that will lead his bid for a title at Wimbledon or the U.S. Open where quicker strikes can mask his plodding movements. He will never have the footwork or athleticism to be truly elite, but he has the potential to win a couple of majors if he keeps developing.

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Tomic: Far more off-court baggage than substantial tennis results, the Aussie has often rubbed people the wrong way with a poor work ethic and brash comments. The reality is that his tennis skills are interesting but not overpowering. He’s almost too casual with slice, flat shots with little pace, eastern forehands and sense of nonchalance.

Up to a career-best No. 17 ranking last week, Tomic will need to win big matches and tournaments to begin proving his potential will even moderately pay off.

Goffin: Very consistent and admirable tenacity but lacks the weapons or power to be a big winner. A Top-10 ranking could happen, but it’s hard to see him ever winning a major title.

Sock: The prototypical American with a big forehand and powerful serve, but less adept in grinding out points. Not enough defensive talent, but he could be a spoiler now and then. Much more fulfilled than disappointing American Ryan Harrison.

Outlook 2016

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It won’t be easy for the Lost Generation to overcome stubborn veterans like Stan Wawrinka, Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Ferrer. They will need to consistently knock off these proven second-tier stars in order to move up their rankings for better tournament seeding. They need to believe they can dust off these next-best players before they challenge the superstars.

The best time to rise is now. There are solid hard-court tournaments in February and March and featured Masters 1000 tournaments at Indian Wells and Miami. Perhaps a title from this group, could help set up strong springs on European clay. This will prove if they can peak for majors at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

If one or two of this generation can beat back the secondary stars, take advantage of Federer’s absence from mid-March to mid-May, knock off Nadal’s comeback to elite status and beat the best of Murray, well, that might be reasonable enough.

Only then could one of them even think about beating Djokovic on a major stage, but let’s banish those thoughts before they twist in the wind.

So what about it? What are their best, most realistic ideals? Can Nishikori win a Masters 1000 title in Monte Carlo, Madrid or Rome? Maybe he could parlay this into a French Open semifinal.

Could Raonic take down a weaker field in Miami, or blast holes into Wimbledon’s lawns as a surprise finalist or winner? The Twitter account @TennisDTL seems to think so, but pointed out injuries have impacted his progression:

"

#Raonic has firmly left #Dimitrov et al behind, sad he was hampered by injury just as he looked like he was in a strong position, unlucky.

— ... (@TennisDTL) January 29, 2016"

Will Dimitrov find another gear to put him at Murray’s level? The Scot's longevity is superior, but it's not unreasonable to suggest Dimitrov could start something special at a big tournament in Europe. His defensive footwork is good enough to win big on clay, and his athleticism and skills are good enough to better 2014 Wimbledon.

The rest of the Lost Generation will need to prove a lot more, but Tomic might be the most likely to creep closer to the top 10.

One thing’s for sure: If the Lost Generation players don't make their move now, they will hear louder footsteps closing in from young 20-somethings and teenage talents like Nick Kyrgios, Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverez and Taylor Fritz. Crunch, crunch, crunch…

Tick-tock, tick-tock...