If the Houston Texans' D Line Stands Up, Jacksonville Can't Run Away With Game

Two games in and the Texans are 1-1, although not in the manner most expected.

After falling in the opener against the Jets, the team fell behind early at Tennessee, but was able to rebound for a heart-attack inducing win.

Looking out a few weeks at the schedule, most Texans fans may have reason to be optimistic.

I, however, am more paranoid than most. 

My paranoia does not stem from the CIA and I don't wear a tin foil hat, but years of being subjected to defenses designed by Richard Smith can make even the most hardened football fan nervous.

At the moment, the paranoia can be summed up with three letters: M, J, and D.

First off, let me say that the early returns on Frank Bush's defense are FAR superior to those of Richard Smith.

Then again, that's like being the valedictorian of summer school.

Rather than rely on generalizations, though, let's look at the available data.

Through the first two games, the Texans have been a feast or famine run defense. They have had many nice stops behind the line of scrimmage or for no gain.

They've also given up four runs of over 30 yards.

In the first two games, the Texans main defensive goal was to stop the run and make the other team beat them with the pass. They often stacked eight or nine in the box and pursued hard to the ball.

In the Jets game this actually worked pretty well as through three quarters, the Jets had only four runs over four yards.

As the game progressed, however, the Jets broke two long ones: a 38-yard TD and a 39-yard run. On both of these, the Texans had nine in the box, so once Thomas Jones got past that, it was pretty much clear sailing.

The natural question at this point is, "How does Jones even get past the first level?"

There are three answers here. The first is that the aggressive ball pursuit has had a negative impact on gap discipline. Guys are running so hard to try to make a play, that they are getting out of position and making it a little easier to open holes.

The second reason is that our linebackers and safeties were not very successful in blitzing. When the team blitzed—be it a run blitz or pass blitz—they seemed to be running into blockers and the Jets were able to pick it up with relative ease.

The last reason is that because of the offense's struggles to move the ball and the defense's inability to get off the field on third down, these guys were just tired. The Jets had the ball for nearly 40 minutes and this may have contributed to the other two reasons mentioned.

Against Tennessee, the defense was much less successful against the run, and 60 percent of the runs went for four yards or longer. 

The primary culprits here were also over-pursuit and gap discipline.

On the first of Chris Johnson's long runs, defensive end Connor Barwin ran hard outside, and was given only a slight nudge by tackle Michael Roos and was out of the play.  Roos was then able to run down-field and make another key block to spring Johnson.

On the long 91-yard run, a similar thing happened with Tim Bulman and again, there was a key down-field block.

Many of the other runs that went for 10 to 15 yards were also helped by a key downfield block or overpursuit by the Texans.

Now Maurice Jones-Drew comes to town.

Last year, the Texans largely held Jones-Drew in check as he ended up with rushing totals of 32 and 49 yards, but that was on seven and 12 rushes respectively. Now he's the team's feature back and figures to get more carries.

The Texans are likely to pursue a similar defensive strategy as we have seen so far this season and try to make David Garrard beat them.

If they can contain Maurice Jones-Drew, this strategy may pay off, but if the last two weeks are any indication of the Texans' run defense, we may be in for another shootout.