The Complete Guide to UFC Fight Night 82: Hendricks vs. Thompson
UFC 196 is gone, replaced by UFC Fight Night 82: Hendricks vs. Thompson this Saturday night in Las Vegas.
It doesn't quite have the same ring to it.
This event was scheduled to be the rematch between heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum and the man he beat for the belt, Cain Velasquez. A back injury to Velasquez led to the premature announcement of Stipe Miocic as his replacement, but Werdum then pulled out, citing an injury of his own.
Rather than go ahead with the card as a pay-per-view, the UFC moved it to Fox Sports 1. That was the right move given the depleted lineup, and it turns out to be an excellent card for the promotion's cable outlet.
In the main event, former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks takes on karate master Stephen Thompson in an outstanding scrap at 170 pounds. The division is wide-open following the razor-thin title fight between Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit in January, and the winner will have as good a claim on a title shot as anyone.
The heavyweight co-main event of Roy Nelson and Jared Rosholt carries some name value, as does a matchup at 205 pounds between Ovince Saint Preux and Rafael Cavalcante. The second-best fight on the card, however, is the flyweight matchup between former title challenger Joseph Benavidez and Zach Makovsky.
The preliminary card is decent, if not outstanding. The flyweight bout between rising prospects Ray Borg and Justin Scoggins will be one of the highlights of the entire event, while a lightweight scrap featuring veterans Josh Burkman and K.J. Noons should be exciting.
Let's take a look at each individual fight.
The Fight Pass Prelims
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Featherweights
Artem Lobov (11-11-1, 1 N/C; 0-1 UFC) vs. Alex White (10-2; 1-2 UFC)
Featherweight brawlers meet in what should be an exciting fight to open the evening's festivities. Lobov, a training partner of Conor McGregor and runner-up on the last season of The Ultimate Fighter, came up short at the finale against late replacement Ryan Hall. White has lost two in a row—a decision to Clay Collard and a knockout at the hands of Lucas Martins.
Lobov, a Russian who now lives in Ireland, is an almost pure counterpuncher. He's allergic to leading and prefers to move and defend while picking and choosing single power punches as his opponent throws. Decent wrestling keeps him standing. White isn't a great wrestler, but he's long, athletic and quick and throws everything with power. Defense is a problem, though, and he's far too hittable for comfort.
White throws a great deal more volume and fights longer, and while his porous defense is a problem, he's a tough and durable fighter who should be able to eat Lobov's counters and keep going. The American takes a decision.
Welterweights
Mickey Gall (1-0; 0-0 UFC) vs. Mike Jackson (0-0; 0-0 UFC)
Call this the "CM Punk Sweepstakes." Mickey Gall caught the attention of Dana White on his Looking for a Fight online series when he won his professional debut and immediately called out the UFC president and former WWE star; if he wins here, he's slated to get Punk when he finally appears in the UFC. Jackson, a Texas-based MMA journalist and experienced amateur, has no such guarantee but might still get the fight.
There isn't much to go on here. Gall seems to be a striking novice who knows how to cover takedowns with strikes and finish on the mat, while Jackson appears to be a skilled striker without a great ground game. Gall is a substantial betting favorite, and that's as good a reason as any to pick him by submission in the first round.
The Fox Sports 1 Prelims
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Featherweights
Noad Lahat (9-1; 2-1 UFC) vs. Diego Rivas (6-0; 1-0 UFC)
Low-level featherweights open the Fox Sports 1 portion of the event. Israel's Lahat has won two in a row since dropping his debut to Godofredo Pepey, taking decisions from Steven Siler and Niklas Backstrom. Rivas, a veteran of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America and native of Chile, debuted with a decision win over Rodolfo Rubio Perez in November 2014.
Rivas is a solid combination striker and has decent skills in other areas, but he isn't terribly technical anywhere and is drastically undersized. Lahat is big, physical and well-rounded, with a good takedown game and strong top control.
The Israeli's size, strength and technical wrestling and grappling games should get this done. Lahat submits Rivas in the first round.
Flyweights
Ray Borg (9-1; 3-1 UFC) vs. Justin Scoggins (10-2; 3-2 UFC)
Two of the brightest up-and-comers in the flyweight division meet in one of the very best fights on the card. Borg debuted with a tight loss to Dustin Ortiz but has run off three consecutive wins since then against low-level competition. Scoggins rebounded from a two-fight losing streak with a one-sided win over Josh Sampo last May.
The winner will be the hottest prospect at 125 pounds and only a win or two away from the division's elite.
Scoggins' game is a fascinating mixture of karate-based striking and pure MMA transitions. A constant barrage of side, hook and round kicks keeps his opponent busy between blitzing punching combinations and sets Scoggins' preferred range. Slick reactive takedowns make his opponents wary to come forward, and he covers the entries on his explosive doubles nicely.
Transitions are at the heart of Borg's game as well. He does a beautiful job of punching his way into his takedown attempts and hits gorgeous reactive shots, chaining attempts together and finishing with authority. Top control and hunting for creative submissions in the scrambles are specialties. He's still a bit raw, however, particularly on the feet.
Per Odds Shark, Borg is a minus-330 favorite, which seems way off. Scoggins is the better striker, while Borg has the edge on the mat; however, Scoggins' reach advantage and habit of fighting long should make it difficult for Borg to get in on his takedown attempts. Still, Scoggins' habit of mixing things up with his wrestling could get him in trouble here, and the pick is Borg by tight decision.
Heavyweights
Derrick Lewis (13-4, 1 N/C; 3-2 UFC) vs. Damian Grabowski (20-2; 0-0 UFC)
Poland's Grabowski finally makes his UFC debut after a long and illustrious career on the Eastern European circuit. His only prior experience in the U.S. was a two-fight stint in Bellator, including a loss to its now-retired heavyweight champion Kole Conrad. Lewis has seen mixed results in the UFC, most recently suffering a knockout at the foot of Shawn Jordan before rebounding with a finish of Ruan Potts in October.
Lewis' game builds on his tremendous size, power and surprising quickness but lacks technical craft in any particular area. Potent single shots at range carry him into the clinch, where he muscles takedowns and then blasts away from top position. Grabowski is a skilled clinch fighter and grappler with a smooth, submission-oriented top game.
While Grabowski is giving up a substantial amount of size, Lewis' porous takedown defense and lack of skills on the mat aside from pounding away from top position are far greater concerns. Grabowski finds a topside submission in the third round.
Lightweights
Josh Burkman (27-12, 1 N/C; 5-7, 1 N/C UFC) vs. K.J. Noons (13-8, 1 N/C; 2-2, 1 N/C UFC)
Veteran welterweight Burkman makes his first cut to 155 pounds and draws another well-traveled fighter in former EliteXC and Strikeforce competitor Noons. Both fighters desperately need a win here to stay in the UFC; Burkman is on a two-fight skid, while Noons recently dropped one after a no-contest.
The athletic Burkman is mostly a striker who works from both stances. He has a particular affinity for counters and packs real power in his hands. Strong takedown defense keeps him standing, and he hits the occasional double for variety. Noons is a pure striker who does his best work in the pocket, where his head movement and deep boxing background come into play.
This is a close fight, but Burkman's greater variety of skills should get it done. He takes a decision.
Mike Pyle vs. Sean Spencer
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Welterweights
Mike Pyle (26-11-1; 9-6 UFC) vs. Sean Spencer (12-4; 3-3 UFC)
Veteran gatekeeper Pyle takes on Spencer in what should be an entertaining matchup of mid-tier welterweights. Pyle, a Tennessean who now resides in Las Vegas, is on a two-fight losing streak after dropping a decision to rising prospect Colby Covington and suffering a knockout loss to Jordan Mein.
Spencer endured a robbery at the hands of the judges in losing a decision to Cathal Pendred last January, and prior to that he took a three-round victory over Paulo Thiago and lost a close decision to Alex Garcia.
The veteran Pyle might need this win to stay in the UFC, particularly at a grizzled 40 years old, while this is an opportunity for Spencer to capture his first signature win and move up the rankings.
Pyle is more than competent in every phase and makes up for what he lacks in physical gifts with great technical skill and craftiness born of experience.
Meat-and-potatoes kickboxing with good timing and shot selection is the basis of Pyle's game on the feet. There's nothing flashy about it, but he measures with his jab and has power in his hands, which is the product of sound striking mechanics. Counters are a specialty.
The clinch is Pyle's strongest area, and he excels at following his punches forward into tie-ups or countering his opponent's strikes with an entry. Inside and outside trips are his forte, and he complements them with sharp knees, elbows and uppercuts. Grabbing a double-collar tie while his opponent is distracted and firing off a sharp knee is something of a signature as well.
Rock-solid takedown defense, particularly up against the fence, keeps Pyle standing for the most part. A sneaky standing guillotine adds another layer of danger to opponents who try to get Pyle to the mat.
On the mat, Pyle uses an active guard and scrambles nicely if he finds himself on his back. He does excellent work from top position, with a full arsenal of sharp strikes, smooth passes and topside submissions.
Spencer is a striker by trade. While he's neither a great athlete nor blessed with tremendous power, the former boxer does have quick hands, great cardio and solid technical acumen.
A steady diet of punching combinations forms the basis of his game, with a preference for a consistent jab followed by a straight or overhand right. He likes the left hook as a counter and often follows his punches with sneaky kicks. Pace is a strong suit, and he produces a consistent volume of strikes.
That's essentially the entirety of Spencer's game. He has solid if not outstanding takedown defense and is stout in the clinch, but he offers almost nothing on the mat aside from the ability to get back to his feet.
Betting Odds
Spencer -175, Pyle +145
Prediction
Those odds seem off. Unless Pyle is well and truly over the hill, he should be able to put in some work at range, get into the clinch and work Spencer over with knees before hitting takedowns. On the ground and in transitions, this is all Pyle.
The alternative scenario, in which Spencer keeps Pyle at arm's length all night and stays out of the clinch and grappling, seems less likely. Pyle finishes by submission in the second.
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Misha Cirkunov vs. Alex Nicholson
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Light Heavyweights
Misha Cirkunov (10-2; 1-0 UFC) vs. Alex Nicholson (6-1; 0-0 UFC)
Light heavyweight up-and-comers meet in a potentially interesting fight. Cirkunov, a Latvian immigrant to Canada who was a fixture of top-prospect lists for years, debuted in the UFC with a first-round win over Daniel Jolly last August. Nicholson has wins over solid competition on the Florida MMA scene but has yet to face anybody on the UFC level.
The Floridian is a big and durable light heavyweight who does his best work on the feet. His game lacks much in the way of technical craft, but he makes up for it with pace and aggression. Snapping left kicks and hard but wild punching combinations are his bread and butter on the feet, but he's almost comically hittable and relies far too much on his chin.
The best part of Nicholson's arsenal is his clinch game. He excels at punching his way inside and then going to town with short punches and especially knees, which pack real power and wear his opponent down. Takedown defense is a problem, though, and he lacks a bottom game.
Cirkunov is experienced, well-rounded and physically gifted, with great strength and surprising quickness. Striking isn't his strongest suit, but the southpaw slings decent punch-kick combinations and packs some power in his shots.
The clinch is the Latvian-Canadian's wheelhouse. He has a background in judo, and it shows up in his slick repertoire of trips and throws, which he complements with hard knees and punches in tight.
Top position is a real strength, and Cirkunov moves from position to position with quickness and coordination. He drops bombs on top when he postures and has a preference for the armbar.
Betting Odds
Cirkunov -800, Nicholson +500
Prediction
Nicholson's durability and willingness to bang it out are all he has going for him in this matchup. He likes to operate in the clinch, where Cirkunov is more technically skilled and the American's takedown defense is subpar. The easy recipe here involves Cirkunov hitting a takedown and working Nicholson over from the top for a first-round submission.
Joseph Benavidez vs. Zach Makovsky
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Flyweights
Joseph Benavidez (23-4; 10-2 UFC) vs. Zach Makovsky (19-6; 3-2 UFC)
Few fighters in MMA are less appreciated than Benavidez, who is 15-4 in the WEC and UFC and has lost to only the two greatest fighters in the history of the bantamweight and flyweight divisions.
The two-time flyweight title challenger is riding a four-fight winning streak and owns victories over former top contenders Ali Bagautinov and John Moraga, along with dominant victories over Dustin Ortiz and Tim Elliott.
Makovsky, the former Bellator bantamweight champion, has seen mixed results since coming to the UFC. He started strong with wins over Josh Sampo and Scott Jorgensen but has come up short against John Dodson and Jussier da Silva.
This is likely Makovsky's last chance to mark himself as a member of the flyweight elite, while it would be difficult to deny Benavidez yet another shot at the belt if he wins here.
Benavidez is a crafty, experienced and diverse fighter with plus skills in every area. He operates out of both stances on the feet and is effectively ambidextrous, though he prefers to kick a little more from southpaw and power-punch from orthodox.
Consistent movement and cutting angles at distance open up opportunities for blitzing combinations that he punctuates with hard kicks or knees to catch his opponent ducking. He's comfortable countering both in the pocket and stepping backward and does a beautiful job of changing up his timing and rhythm over the course of a fight. Defense is a strong suit, and it's difficult to catch Benavidez cleanly.
While he's capable of winning fights purely on the feet, Benavidez is also a talented wrestler. Using punches to set up explosive doubles and timing reactive shots as his opponent comes forward are specialties, and his defensive wrestling is strong enough to stuff most opponents.
Scrambling is likely the best part of Benavidez's game. He excels at catching opponents in transitions on the mat, particularly with his signature guillotine. Being underneath him is no fun, either, as he can drop bombing ground strikes and smoothly pass the guard.
Makovsky combines his wrestling and grappling games into a smooth, seamless mixture that builds on his strong command of transitions. He has a fondness for single-leg takedowns and does a beautiful job of running the pipe and finishing. He puts together nice chains as well.
What really stands out about Makovsky's takedown game, however, is his ability to get in on his opponent's hips. He has outstanding timing on his reactive shots to counter his opponent's forward movement, punches his way into his level changes and uses strikes in the clinch to distract before he ducks down to grab the single.
Once the fight hits the mat, Makovsky is a strong control artist. Ground striking isn't his strongest suit, but it's hard to get away from him, and he does an outstanding job of combining jiu-jitsu top control with wrestling positions. If his opponent manages to get back to his feet, Makovsky simply goes right back to looking for the takedown. It's a relentless and difficult game to counter.
Pure striking is Makovsky's weakest area. It mostly serves to bring him into the clinch or cover his shot entries, but the southpaw can do a little work at range with single punches and kicks. If forced to stay at distance, however, Makovsky is unlikely to be winning the fight.
Betting Odds
Benavidez -440, Makovsky +350
Prediction
The odds capture what a difficult matchup this is for Makovsky. Benavidez is a solid defensive wrestler, and even if Makovsky can get him to the mat, there's no guarantee that Benavidez isn't the better scrambler. He's certainly more dangerous than Makovsky there.
At range, this is Benavidez's fight to lose. He has big advantages in power, output and the depth of craft in his striking game. This should mostly stay on the feet, and in that scenario, Benavidez takes a clean decision.
Ovince Saint Preux vs. Rafael Cavalcante
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Light Heavyweights
Ovince Saint Preux (18-7; 6-2 UFC) vs. Rafael Cavalcante (12-6, 1 N/C; 1-3 UFC)
A pair of light heavyweights grasping for a slot in the Top 10 meet in a decent matchup.
Cavalcante was the Strikeforce champion, but that was five years and a failed drug test ago. He hasn't looked like the same fighter in the UFC, dropping a one-sided decision to Ryan Bader before eating Patrick Cummins' ground strikes for a stoppage. Saint Preux has yet to crack the elite, and Glover Teixeira snapped his two-fight winning streak over Shogun Rua and Cummins in August.
Both fighters badly need a win. Cavalcante will almost certainly be cut if he loses, and while Saint Preux will probably be safe, he will be stuck on the outside of the division's elite looking in for the foreseeable future.
Cavalcante is a talented and powerful striker. He likes to wing single shots at range, particularly his overhand right, and mixes in low kicks. Counters are the best facet of his game, particularly in the pocket when he can draw his opponent in and get his head moving off the center line.
That's essentially the extent of Cavalcante's game. He's a strong defensive wrestler and does a good job of getting back to his feet; every once in a while, he looks for a guillotine or other submission in transition.
Saint Preux is a big, quick and powerful fighter with a mixed bag of skills that don't really fit together in any coherent way. He likes to stick and move at range, using his length and speed to keep his opponents on the end of rangy front and round kicks. When the time is right, he leaps in with a hard single punch or combination.
Counters are the best part of Saint Preux's striking game. He excels at sneaking in shots on charging opponents who have to cover the great distance he sets through those rangy kicks, and he has excellent timing and big power.
A high school wrestler, Saint Preux is solid in that phase of the fight. He can hit explosive doubles and does a decent job of defending, but he relies far too heavily on his athleticism to scramble back to his feet when he's taken down. That burns through his somewhat limited gas tank quickly.
On the mat, Saint Preux is solid from the top, with big power in his ground strikes and a good sense for how to use wrestling control positions. He offers nothing from his back, however, and can be ground down.
Betting Odds
Saint Preux -410, Cavalcante +330
Prediction
Unless Cavalcante has turned things around since August, this is Saint Preux's fight to lose. His speed and tendency to fight at long range could make things difficult for the slower, shorter Brazilian, who will struggle to close the distance. Unless the American walks into a counter, he finishes Cavalcante inside the three-round distance. Saint Preux takes it by knockout in the second round.
Roy Nelson vs. Jared Rosholt
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Heavyweights
Roy Nelson (20-12; 7-8 UFC) vs. Jared Rosholt (14-2; 6-1 UFC)
Heavyweights who are looking to make a move up the rankings collide in a decent matchup. Nelson has been on a brutal run of late, losing five of his last six with the only victory over the ghost of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira nearly two years ago. All of those losses have been to the cream of the division, though, including Stipe Miocic, Daniel Cormier and most recently Josh Barnett.
Rosholt has been winning fights but not in a fashion that has won him any admirers, with decisions over Stefan Struve and Timothy Johnson.
Although he has been a one-note puncher for most of his UFC career, Nelson has made demonstrable improvements to his overall skill set in his last several fights. His long-neglected black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu has reappeared, and so too has his takedown game. Well-timed and technical singles and doubles play off the legitimate threat of his hands.
From top position, Nelson is a monster. His size and weight make him nearly impossible to budge and give him a heavy base, while he passes guard with the grace of a much smaller man. Side control is his favorite position, where he rains down short punches and elbows.
Despite all of that, Big Country still prefers to strike. His right hand is his bread and butter, and he throws it as an overhand, uppercut and (occasionally) a cross. Over the last several years, Nelson has done a much better job of using his jab and left hook for setups, but he still mostly relies on the right.
Rosholt is a grinder, plain and simple. The former All-American wrestler at Oklahoma State has few frills and little fluff in his game, using his strikes to set up clinch entries and level changes.
Once locked up with his opponent, Rosholt goes to work. He stifles his opponent against the fence with head pressure and the occasional strike, and then he hits relentless chains of singles and doubles. Once he drags his opponent to the mat, he stifles him from top position and moves seamlessly to wrestling rides if he attempts to scramble back to his feet.
There's nothing exciting or dynamic about Rosholt's game, but it's effective. His cardio is excellent, and he can do his thing for three rounds without worrying about gassing.
Betting Odds
Nelson -160, Rosholt +140
Prediction
There are two possible outcomes for this fight: an early knockout for Nelson or a grinding, three-round decision for Rosholt that exploits Nelson's limited gas tank and lackluster clinch game. Despite the betting odds, the latter seems more likely. Nelson is 39 and has a ton of mileage, while Rosholt is excellent at what he does and takes few shots on his way in. Rosholt takes a decision in a borderline-unwatchable fight.
Johny Hendricks vs. Stephen Thompson
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Welterweights
Johny Hendricks (17-3; 12-3 UFC) vs. Stephen Thompson (11-1; 6-1 UFC)
This is an outstanding matchup. Thompson came into the UFC with a tremendous amount of hype but has flown under the radar since a loss to Matt Brown dropped him back to earth in April 2012. He has won five in a row since then over excellent competition, most recently knocking out Jake Ellenberger, taking a decision from Patrick Cote and finishing middleweight contender Robert Whittaker.
Hendricks is the former welterweight champion who lost his belt in a razor-thin fight to Robbie Lawler that many thought he won. He defeated Brown in his return engagement last March, but a weight-cutting mishap pulled him from a scheduled bout with Tyron Woodley in October.
The winner may well get the next shot at Lawler in a wide-open division.
Thompson, a lifelong practitioner of karate and former kickboxer, is a smooth and exceptionally talented striker. While most of the attention focuses on his side-on stance and consistent use of side and hook kicks off the lead leg, the real meat of his game is slick, technical boxing from both stances, punctuated by sneaky round kicks.
Long, straight punches are Thompson's bread and butter. He probes with his lead hand and then leaps in with a one-two and exits on an angle. The best part of his striking game, however, is his affinity for the counter. His subtle command of distance and crisp angles force his opponents to attack, and when they do, Thompson drops vicious straight punches. Pace is a strong suit, and he's accurate with his strikes as well.
The rest of Thompson's game is better than it gets credit for. His command of space and angles makes it difficult to get a clean shot at his hips in the first place, and even then he defends nicely. The occasional takedown of his own adds some variety, and he packs real power in his ground strikes, particularly from the ride.
Hendricks has grown from an elite wrestler into a well-rounded mixed martial artist. Smooth combination striking is his hallmark on the feet, dropping sequences of punches to the head and body followed by vicious low kicks. He doesn't throw with as much raw power as he used to, but he is still a concussive puncher with much better volume and technique than in the past.
The southpaw is most comfortable operating in the pocket, where his relative lack of height isn't as much of a hindrance and his power can best be utilized. While he's consistently there to be hit, he's not easy to hit cleanly, and drawing opponents into exchanges opens up his takedown game.
Wrestling is still Hendricks' most comfortable area. He's brutally strong and excels at working against the fence, where he can connect with his hands and then lift and drop his opponents with his preferred double. Defensive wrestling has occasionally been a problem, but not recently. He's a strong clinch fighter who does great work in close with short punches and knees.
On the mat, Hendricks is mostly a control artist. He likes to sit in half guard and work with short punches but isn't much of a submission threat. His power on the feet doesn't really translate to ground striking.
Betting Odds
Hendricks -210, Thompson +175
Prediction
Thompson has made enormous improvements to his defensive wrestling and grappling game and has the counterpunching skills to crack the hittable Hendricks or even finish him if this stays on the feet. Even as a striking matchup, however, Hendricks presents problems for Thompson. He's willing and able to stay in the pocket, and low kicks are difficult for a side-on striker like Thompson to deal with.
The most likely scenario here involves Hendricks keeping it even on the feet, wearing Thompson down with low kicks and using his combinations in the pocket to set up takedowns against the fence. The combination of work in the clinch, constant takedowns and just enough top control should edge the scorecards in Hendricks' direction. He takes a decision.
All betting odds via Odds Shark.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. He can be found on Twitter.
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