PGA Tour Player of the Year for 2016: Handicapping the Field
The PGA Tour Player of the Year is decided by Tour pros who have competed in at least 15 events. In other words, it's the Screen Actors Guild Awards of professional golf.
Last year, Jordan Spieth was bestowed the honors, thanks to a multiple major-winning season. It shouldn't be a spoiler to anyone that this year's top three favorites are the "Big Three:" Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Jason Day. You'll have to read on to see how they're ranked.
Of course, with his win at the Abu Dhabi Championship and jump to No. 4 in the Official World Golf Rankings, Rickie Fowler is making a case for the "Big Four" in some people's minds.
We'll look at favorites, players who have a good shot (the "Wouldn't surprise us" group), and those who, if they played a bit better than expected and got some help from the favorites, could claim POY honors (the "It could happen" group).
On to the rundown.
It Could Happen: Matt Kuchar
1 of 10
OWGR: 22
2014-2015 Money list: 28
2014-2015 Season: 24 of 25 cuts made; 7 top-10 finishes; 1 second-place finish; 1 third-place finish
Analysis
Kuchar is a stalwart, and he has to break through in a major eventually, right? He's 22nd in strokes gained tee-to-green, 33rd in strokes gained putting and 11th in total strokes gained. Kuchar is a veteran with a top-tier all-around game and a happy warrior mentality.
It's not difficult to see him grabbing a major and two or three other tournament titles this year.
It Could Happen: Hideki Matsuyama
2 of 10
OWGR: 17
2014-2015 Money list: 15
2014-2015 Season: 23 of 25 cuts; 9 top-10 finishes.
Analysis
While he didn't win in 2015, at 23, Hideki Matsuyama is still very much a rising star on the PGA Tour. He actually improved his putting substantially in 2015, moving from 156th in strokes gained putting to 86th.
Among the tour's best ball strikers, if Matsuyama continues to improve on the green, he should have a big year.
It Could Happen: Patrick Reed
3 of 10
OWGR: 10
2014-2015 Money list: 18
2014-2015 Season: 25 of 27 cuts made; 1 win; 4 top-10 finishes; 14 top-25 finishes.
Analysis
While he won one fewer time than he did in 2014, Patrick Reed improved his cuts made and top-25 finishes, showing that his top-end play is roughly constant, while his worst showings are getting better. He improved in both strokes gained in putting and strokes gained from tee-to-green.
Don't get hung up on the win total: P. Reed is getting better.
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It Could Happen: Bubba Watson
4 of 10
OWGR: 5
2014-2015 Money list: 3
2014-2015 Season: 17 of 19 cuts; 2 wins; 3 second-place finishes; 2 third-place finishes; 10 top-10 finishes.
Analysis
2015 was another big year for Bubba Watson as he matched his 2014 win total and improved on his top-10 showings. The tour leader in strokes gained from tee-to-green and a much better putter in 2015 than 2014, Bubba could be on the cusp of a big season, if he can keep his head.
It Could Happen: Dustin Johnson
5 of 10
OWGR: 8
2014-2015 Money list: 5
2014-2015 Season: 18 of 21 cuts made; 1 win; 2 second-place finishes; 11 top-10s.
Analysis
Assuming the turbulence of 2013 is behind new father Dustin Johnson, DJ ought to be poised to build on a 2014-2015 season that should have included a major victory. Obviously, his power is unsurpassed on tour, and he has improved his putting in recent years.
Once this guy figures out how to win with regularity, watch out.
Wouldn't Surprise Us: Henrik Stenson
6 of 10
OWGR: 6
2014-2015 Money list: 9
2014-2015 Season: 16 of 16 cuts made; 4 second-place finishes; 8 top-10s.
Analysis
Henrik Stenson dealt with injury in 2015 that likely affected him more than he let on. Now, with successful meniscus surgery behind him, it's difficult not to forecast an improvement from his 2014 form. The Swede jumped from outside the top 100 in strokes gained putting to inside the top 25 in 2015.
He's one of the best players on tour on paper, and now healthy, his win total should reflect that fact.
Wouldn't Surprise Us: Rickie Fowler
7 of 10
OWGR: 4
2014-2015 Money list: 4
2014-2015 Season: 17 of 21 cuts made; 2 wins; 1 second-place finish; 1 third. 7 top-10s.
Analysis
With a win already under his belt on the European Tour this season, Rickie Fowler looks to building upon his good work in the majors in 2013 and everywhere else in 2014. Fowler improved from 35th in total strokes gained in 2014 to 15th in 2015. He could win a major this year, and he ought to tally multiple victories.
His real difficulty in the POY department will come from the three golfers ahead of him on this list.
Wouldn't Surprise Us: Jason Day
8 of 10
OWGR: 2
2014-2015 Money list: 2
2014-2015 Season: 18 of 20 cuts made; 5 wins (1 major); 11 top-10 finishes.
Analysis
Jason Day captured his first major in 2015, leading to popular perception that the floodgates have opened for the talented Australian. He won four times in six starts amid a torrid stretch late last season.
Simply, if it weren't for No. 1 and No. 2 on this list, Day would be a runaway favorite for Player of the Year.
Favorite: Rory McIlroy
9 of 10
OWGR: 3
2014-2015 Money list: 7
2014-2015 Season: 10 of 12 cuts made; 2 wins; 7 top-10 finishes.
Analysis
The "Jordan up, Rory down" narrative is a troubling one, as McIlroy wasn't himself for roughly half of 2015, thanks to an ankle injury and a rushed, rusty return. This year will be the true measure of "Rory vs. Jordan."
If there's a real difference between the two, it's on and around the greens. However, Rory's driver can more than equalize things. If you love golf, hope for a healthy Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth in 2016.
Favorite: Jordan Spieth
10 of 10
OWGR: 1
2014-2015 Money list: 1
2014-2015 Season: 21 of 25 cuts made; 5 wins (2 majors); 4 second-place finishes; 15 top-10s.
Analysis
Money list favorite for obvious reasons. While Rory McIlroy generates more club head speed with his fluid, whip-like swing, and thus powers the ball past Spieth off the tee, Spieth is actually an excellent player from long distance and one of the best from the rough.
Obviously, Spieth has a significant edge around the greens, and, it has to be argued, has more of the Nicklaus/Woods-ian "grind out a win" mentality than McIlroy.
Stats via PGATour.com
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