The Complete Guide to UFC on Fox 18: Johnson vs. Bader
Ryan Bader will get one more chance to make his case for a shot at the light heavyweight title at UFC on Fox 18 Saturday night.
Seven years in the UFC and a great many ups and downs have transformed Bader into a complete, if unexciting fighter, but losses every time he has stepped up against elite competition have left fans doubting whether he can ever break through into the top of the division. A loss here would effectively mark him as a gatekeeper to the light heavyweight elite.
He'll get his chance against Anthony Johnson, who rebounded from a championship loss to Daniel Cormier by flatlining Jimi Manuwa in September. The power-punching Johnson was on a nine-fight winning streak prior to falling short against Cormier, and the possibility of a title fight against a returning Jon Jones still carries great interest.
The rest of the card is strong. In the co-main event, veterans Josh Barnett and Ben Rothwell will stake their own claims on a top contender slot in the messy, chaotic heavyweight division. With age setting in for both fighters, this is likely their last chance to make a run at the title.
A crackling bantamweight matchup between Iuri Alcantara and Jimmie Rivera is flying under the radar, but it promises incredible action. Nineteen-year-old phenom Sage Northcutt will open the card in an intriguing short-notice scrap against the experienced and durable Bryan Barberena.
On the prelims, former elite welterweight Jake Ellenberger gets one more chance to prove he still belongs against Tarec Saffiedine, who returns from a long injury layoff. Top lightweight prospect Olivier Aubin-Mercier and Randy Brown, the star of the last episode of Dana White's Looking for a Fight, both grace the undercard as well.
Let's take a look at each matchup.
The Fight Pass Prelims
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Lightweights
Tony Martin (9-3; 1-3 UFC) vs. Felipe Olivieri (14-4, 1 N/C; 0-0 UFC)
Explosive lightweights open the show as Minnesota's Martin takes on debuting Nova Uniao product Olivieri in a solid scrap at 155 pounds. This is likely Martin's last chance in the UFC, as he has dropped three of his four fights in the promotion, most recently losing to Leonardo Santos last March.
Martin is enormous for the division at 6'0" and has built his bullying top game and rangy striking on that size, but he has suspect cardio and isn't much of a wrestler. Olivieri is a striker by trade with huge power in his hands, but he also isn't a great wrestler.
If Martin can get this to the mat, he should have a substantial edge, but Olivieri's striking acumen and power give him a sizable advantage on the feet. Olivieri scores the knockout in the second round.
Featherweights
Damon Jackson (9-1, 1 N/C; 0-1, 1 N/C UFC) vs. Levan Makashvili (7-2; 1-1 UFC)
Texas' Jackson draws New York's Makashvili, a native of Georgia, in a solid featherweight scrap. The loser will likely be out of the promotion, which gives this fight real stakes for otherwise low-level fighters. Yancy Medeiros submitted Jackson in his debut, and so did Rony Jason last May, though a failed drug test made that a no-contest. Makashvili won his debut but lost a close split to Hacran Dias in his return bout.
Both fighters depend on their wrestling. Jackson isn't much of a striker, but he's aggressive and does a good job of punching his way into the clinch and shot takedowns. Working from the top with punches and then snagging a submission is his specialty. Makashvili is a monster in the clinch and as a wrestler, and he has a flashy but low-output striking game.
Makashvili is the stronger and more skilled wrestler, and if he can keep this standing or work takedowns of his own, the fight is his to lose. The Georgian takes it by decision.
Welterweights
Matt Dwyer (8-3; 1-2 UFC) vs. Randy Brown (6-0; 0-0 UFC)
The latest find in Dana White's Looking for a Fight web series, Randy Brown, a New Yorker by way of Jamaica, makes his UFC debut against Canada's Dwyer in a fun welterweight matchup. Brown was the Ring of Combat welterweight champion and has a ton of potential, while Dwyer has sandwiched losses to Alan Jouban and Albert Tumenov around a knockout win over William Macario.
The Canadian is an aggressive striker by trade. He's huge for the division at 6'4" and uses his height fairly well, flinging long straight punches and kicks. The tendency to forget about his physical advantages and simply brawl in the pocket and the clinch is always there, however, and Dwyer falls prey to it more often than not.
Like Dwyer, Brown is a striker, but one with substantially more in the way of speed, athleticism and raw power. The New Yorker is a crisp boxer with a nice jab and slick combination work, and his aggression is noteworthy. We know next to nothing about the rest of his game aside from the fact that he can drop bombs from the top.
This is a bet on Brown's potential and the general belief that the UFC is giving its new find a winnable matchup; the pick is Brown by knockout in the second round.
The Fox Sports 1 Prelims
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Featherweights
Alex Caceres (10-8, 1 N/C; 5-6, 1 N/C UFC) vs. Masio Fullen (10-5; 1-1 UFC)
The longtime bantamweight Caceres, a member of The Ultimate Fighter 12 cast, moves up to 145 pounds and draws The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America competitor Fullen. Caceres had seemingly found his groove with an impressive upset win over Sergio Pettis, but he has since lost three in a row. Most recently, he suffered a 21-second knockout to Francisco Rivera. Makwan Amirkhani submitted Fullen in short order last June.
Caceres has a scramble-heavy style on the mat and strikes for volume at range, particularly with his kicks. Fullen is a striker by trade, with nice combinations and hard kicks.
If it stays a striking matchup, which it probably will, it should be closer than the minus-290 line in favor of the American indicates, but Caceres should take a decision on volume.
Welterweights
George Sullivan (17-4, 1 N/C; 3-1 UFC) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (22-6-1; 1-2 UFC)
Russia's Yakovlev takes on New Jersey's Sullivan in an under-the-radar but potentially fun clash of veterans at 170 pounds. Sullivan has been surprisingly good since debuting in the promotion, defeating Mike Rhodes, Igor Araujo and Dominic Waters while only falling to Tim Means. Yakovlev snapped a two-fight losing streak with a decision win over former lightweight title challenger Gray Maynard in April.
Yakovlev is well-rounded and complete. A strong wrestler with excellent takedown defense, he throws smooth combinations at range. Sullivan is a mean and aggressive fighter with power in his hands who pushes a great pace.
This boils down to Yakovlev's wrestling against Sullivan's aggression, size and pace. Unless Sullivan has made serious improvements to his takedown defense, he'll spend long periods on his back, so the pick is Yakovlev by decision.
Flyweights
Dustin Ortiz (15-4; 4-2 UFC) vs. Wilson Reis (19-6; 3-2 UFC)
This is an awesome bit of matchmaking from Sean Shelby. Ortiz rebounded from a decision loss to Joseph Benavidez by finishing Willie Gates in August, while Reis is looking to get back on track following a decision loss to Jussier da Silva in May. Before that, Reis had won a pair of fights over Scott Jorgensen and Joby Sanchez.
This profiles as a scramble-heavy ground war, though both fighters are competent elsewhere. Reis has a solid if low-output southpaw striking game and a surprisingly effective takedown repertoire, but he does his best work on top and in transitions. So too does Ortiz, whose striking game is mostly a distraction from his clinch entries and takedowns. Quick scrambles on the mat are where the American shines.
This should be fun, particularly if both fighters are willing to engage in transitions on the mat. They probably will, and Ortiz's slight edge in wrestling and more active, aggressive striking game should carry the day. Ortiz by decision is the pick.
Middleweights
Rafael Natal (20-6-1; 8-4-1 UFC) vs. Kevin Casey (9-3, 2 N/C; 1-1, 2 N/C UFC)
The middleweight division is packed with experienced mid-tier talents like Natal and Casey, and while they'll never contend for a title or reach the elite, there is a lot of room for fun fights.
The Brazilian Natal is riding a three-fight winning streak, with the latest by contentious decision over Uriah Hall in May. Casey has two no-contests in his last three fights, testing positive for steroids after a win over Bubba Bush in July 2014 and then suffering an eye injury against Antonio Carlos Jr. in December. He defeated Ildemar Alcantara between those outings.
Natal is a grinder and is good at everything without being great anywhere. Punch-kick combinations at a solid pace are his bread and butter on the feet, and he's a particularly dedicated leg kicker. Technically sound if not explosive wrestling and strong top control are his wheelhouse, and he's willing to eat up chunks of time in boring fashion.
Casey's jiu-jitsu black belt is the core of his game. He's technically and fundamentally sound on the mat, with a no-frills game consisting of passes, ground strikes and submissions on top. He's only a decent wrestler, however, and while he has some power in his strikes, he isn't a crafty kickboxer.
This is Natal's fight to lose if he can drag Casey out of the first round. The Brazilian is durable enough to weather the early storm and wear Casey down with wrestling and the clinch for a late finish. Natal takes it by third-round knockout.
Lightweights
Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-1; 3-1 UFC) vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (11-2; 2-2 UFC)
Aubin-Mercier, the runner-up on The Ultimate Fighter: Nations two years ago, is Canada's best hope for a young talent to replace its aging or retired cadre of stars. The Montreal native has run off three consecutive wins since losing at the TUF finale to Chad Laprise, submitting Jake Lindsey and David Michaud before winning a gritty decision over Tony Sims.
Ferreira, a Brazilian who now resides in the U.S., debuted in the UFC in impressive fashion with a pair of finishes, but he has come up short in his last two. Beneil Dariush soundly outwrestled and outgrappled the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in October 2014, and Dustin Poirier knocked him out in the first round in April.
The Canadian is a suffocating and physically imposing grappler. Judo forms the backbone of his skills, and it gives him a slick array of trips in the clinch, which he combines with smooth chain-wrestling. Transitions are his specialty, and he has a particular gift for finding his opponent's back. The southpaw packs real power on the feet and has made improvements to his striking game, but he's still fairly basic.
A third-degree black belt in jiu-jitsu with a long competitive history, Ferreira is lethal on the mat and owns a fully developed game that is especially effective on top. His clinch takedowns are generally effective, and he's a surprisingly dangerous striker who will stand in the pocket and throw combinations. His skill sets seem disconnected, however, and he doesn't do well with transitions.
This is a sneaky-tough matchup for Aubin-Mercier despite the oddsmakers pegging him as a minus-290 favorite. He's still mostly a grappler, while Ferreira is more skilled on the mat; on the feet, the Brazilian's willingness to bang it out could be a problem. Aubin-Mercier is much more physical and athletic, however, and that should give the Canadian the juice to win a grinding decision in the clinch and at range.
Welterweights
Tarec Saffiedine (15-4; 1-1 UFC) vs. Jake Ellenberger (30-10; 9-6 UFC)
Belgium's Saffiedine returns to action after an absence of 15 months and draws the cratering Jake Ellenberger. In 2012, Ellenberger stood on the cusp of a title shot with six consecutive wins, but he's gone 3-5 since then and 1-4 in his last five, with three of those losses inside the distance. Saffiedine captured the Strikeforce welterweight crown and has split two UFC outings, most recently losing to Rory MacDonald.
This is do or die for Ellenberger, who will probably be cut with a loss here. Saffiedine has a little more breathing room, but he can't lose this fight and still be counted among the elite at 170 pounds.
Saffiedine is a smooth, technical combination striker. He doesn't have much power but works at an excellent pace, is hard to hit and showcases real craft and skill. Low kicks and jabs from both stances are his bread and butter, and he excels at finding clean angles from which to land safely before darting out of range. Strong takedown defense and defensive grappling keep him safely standing.
At one point, Ellenberger was one of the premier power strikers in MMA, but he has grown increasingly gun-shy over the last several years. Forward-moving combinations with vicious power used to form the basis of his game, but he throws fewer strikes than he used to and is less willing to engage. Explosive takedowns were his backup, but we haven't seen much of them lately.
Barring a major turnaround from Ellenberger, this is the Belgian's fight to lose. Saffiedine takes a decision through volume striking and low kicks.
Sage Northcutt vs. Bryan Barberena
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Welterweights
Sage Northcutt (7-0; 2-0 UFC) vs. Bryan Barberena (10-3; 1-1 UFC)
UFC golden child Sage Northcutt gets a fresh matchup and a new weight class on short notice. Originally scheduled to face Andrew Holbrook at lightweight, he instead draws Bryan Barberena at 170 pounds.
The 19-year-old Northcutt owns the looks to be a star, and much more importantly, he has the promotion's backing. The UFC paid him $80,000 for his last fight, an absurd amount for a fighter in his second bout, and other fighters have taken note. There is a big target in his back after wins over low-level lightweights Frank Trevino and Cody Pfister.
For his part, Barberena has split his two UFC outings. A late knockout over Joe Ellenberger made for an exciting debut, and he came on strong late against Chad Laprise in his return engagement but lost the decision.
This is a major test for Northcutt. Barberena is an experienced, tough fighter who isn't to be taken lightly, and he would find a measure of notoriety with a win. For the golden boy, a win over Barberena should silence some of the critics and doubters.
Barberena is big, durable and aggressive, and you can see why he'd be an intriguing matchup for a young and developing fighter like Northcutt from a matchmaker's perspective.
Forward movement is the southpaw's bread and butter. His pressure footwork isn't perfect, and he isn't particularly fast, but he's relentless and tough, which covers a great many flaws. Barberena fires off a consistent barrage of middle and low kicks as he comes forward, and he flings hard single punches or two-strike combinations as he attempts to get into his real wheelhouse, the clinch.
The tie-ups are his specialty, and he excels at punching his way in. Once locked onto his opponent, Barberena drops a rapid barrage of hard punches, elbows and especially knees. The sheer pace at which he works on the inside is shocking, and he complements his strikes with trips and sneaky foot-sweeps for good measure.
Barberena is a solid wrestler who gets most of his takedowns from the clinch, and his takedown defense is serviceable, if not exceptional. From top position, he has some pop in his strikes but isn't an accomplished guard-passer or submission threat.
Pace is the key to Barberena's game. He works fast, and his constant targeting of the legs and the body wears down his opponent over the course of the fight. The opponent needs to finish the slow starter early or build a lead before the third round, because Barberena is strongest in the final frame.
What, exactly, does the UFC have on its hands in the youthful Northcutt? Is there any substance to the flash and hype? The answer is a qualified yes. The Texan is an athletic marvel with next-level physical tools, exceptional killer instinct and some promising skills, but in general, he's a raw talent with massive holes in his game.
Let's focus on what Northcutt does well. The former sport karate champion has a nice range striking game that focuses on side kicks to disrupt his opponent's rhythm, vicious round kicks and mechanically sound punching combinations with some power behind them.
He excels at using his strikes to cover his takedown attempts and timing his level changes as counters to his opponent's strikes and forward movement. The double is his best takedown, and he has great drive and finishes it effortlessly.
On top, Northcutt is a monster. He has great posture and packs real power in his ground strikes, and his command of basic passes allows him to get to dominant positions easily. He aggressively hunts for submissions and combines the threat of the finish with his ground strikes.
The best part of Northcutt's game, however, lies in the scrambles, where his exceptional speed and athleticism come into play. His front headlock is strong, with a smooth back-take game and a nice guillotine, and he excels at sneaking in hard punches and knees in transitions.
On the downside, the Texan doesn't look comfortable exchanging and might not be used to getting hit. His takedown defense is rudimentary, and his bottom game is nonexistent. We don't know much about how he looks in the clinch, but it's unlikely he's much of a threat there.
Betting Odds
Northcutt -435, Barberena +345
Prediction
That betting line is crazy, and I fully expect a great deal of money to come in on Barberena by fight time. He has genuine skill advantages in the clinch and in the depth of his wrestling skill.
Furthermore, his in-your-face, aggressive style could present serious problems for someone like Northcutt, who either wants to be all the way outside at range or wrestling and scrambling. There is no reason to think the Texan will be comfortable brawling in the pocket or roughing it up in the clinch, where Barberena's size and physicality will come into play.
With that said, Northcutt holds massive advantages in speed, athleticism and transitions on the mat, and he's the infinitely more dynamic fighter. If he can put Barberena on the mat, the older fighter will be in real trouble. With some major caveats, the pick is Northcutt by submission in the second round.
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Iuri Alcantara vs. Jimmie Rivera
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Bantamweights
Iuri Alcantara (32-6, 1 N/C; 7-3, 1 N/C UFC) vs. Jimmie Rivera (18-1; 2-0 UFC)
The Brazilian veteran Alcantara draws the rising Rivera in a fantastic matchup at 135 pounds. A loss to Urijah Faber in August 2013 was the prelude to a three-fight winning streak for Alcantara, which Frankie Saenz snapped in a big upset last December. The perennial Top 10 bantamweight got back on track with a win over Leandro Issa in August.
Rivera compiled a 16-1 record on the regional scene but has quickly made a name for himself since moving to the UFC. The New Yorker viciously knocked out Marcus Brimage in 89 seconds in his debut and then took an upset decision over touted prospect Pedro Munhoz in November.
A win for Alcantara would put him on a collision course with another elite bantamweight and probably mark his last real run at the top as an aging fighter (he's 35). For Rivera, this would be a signature win and a sign that he's ready to compete with the top of the increasingly stacked division.
Rivera is something of a late bloomer. On the regional scene, he looked like a grinder with decent all-around skills but little finishing ability and nothing that really stood out, but he has shown a great deal more in his last several fights.
Smooth combination punching is the hallmark of Rivera's game. He probes behind low kicks and a sharp jab, and when his opponent commits, Rivera drops a vicious counter combination of two to five shots. All of his punches carry serious power, and he shifts his locations between the head and body to exploit openings in his opponent's defenses. The occasional middle or high kick adds variety, but mostly Rivera is a boxer.
It's a technically sound and skilled game. Despite packing a great deal of muscle, Rivera doesn't load up on his punches; instead, he constantly moves his head, which transfers his weight in preparation for his preferred counterpunches. His command of rhythm and ability to change speeds and the locations of his strikes are also noteworthy. Uppercuts catch opponents changing levels, and hooks slide around the guard.
If he overshoots on a punching combination, Rivera is happy to dive into the clinch, where his strength and squat frame make him impossible to move. Sharp knees and short punches add up the damage and eat up time.
Rock-solid defensive wrestling powers Rivera's striking game. Even opponents who succeed in getting all the way in on his hips have a difficult time finishing takedowns, and his combination of the sprawl, a strong whizzer and good scrambling instincts keeps him standing.
Alcantara is huge for the weight class at 5'9" and has excellent finishing skills both on the feet and on the mat. While he doesn't throw much volume, the southpaw packs big power in his punches and kicks, and he's an accurate striker with excellent timing and a good sense of the range. Unfortunately, this means there are large stretches where he doesn't do much of anything, and he's fairly hittable as well.
Wrestling is probably the weakest part of Alcantara's game, though he's still above average. Slick trips and throws in the clinch are his primary takedowns, but he's much weaker at defending takedowns. The clinch, however, is a strong suit, and he throws sharp knees on the inside.
The Brazilian really shines on the mat, and his ability to scramble adequately, though not entirely, makes up for his subpar takedown defense. He excels at taking the back in transitions and has a knack for finding submissions there: Inverted triangles off his opponents' shot attempts are one example. Smooth passes and bombing ground strikes make his top game a finishing threat, though he offers little from his back.
Betting Odds
Rivera -170, Alcantara +150
Prediction
It might seem surprising to see the relatively untested Rivera as the favorite, but it makes sense in the context of the stylistic matchup. Despite Alcantara's size advantage, Rivera's combination of high-output counterpunching and unshakeable takedown defense makes this a troublesome pairing for the Brazilian.
While Alcantara's power is a concern and Rivera is far from unhittable, the American's knack for dropping long combinations should give him a substantial edge in volume. Alcantara isn't especially good at keeping his opponent on the outside and likes to dive forward into his punches, with the clinch as a backup. Rivera is better in both areas, and this plays directly into his counter game.
Alcantara does have paths to victory, but the balance of the matchup favors Rivera, and the American should take it by decision.
Josh Barnett vs. Ben Rothwell
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Heavyweights
Josh Barnett (34-7; 6-2 UFC) vs. Ben Rothwell (35-9; 5-3 UFC)
Veteran heavyweights meet in the evening's co-main event. Barnett won the UFC heavyweight title all the way back in 2002 before testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs, and he filled the next decade with a colorful run in Pride, Strikeforce and many other promotions. Since returning to the UFC in 2013, he has sandwiched wins over Frank Mir and Roy Nelson around a knockout loss to Travis Browne.
Rothwell has seemingly come into his own in the last several years, piling up three straight wins since a submission loss to Gabriel Gonzaga. Brandon Vera, Alistair Overeem and Matt Mitrione have all fallen to Rothwell inside the distance.
The winner will have a good claim on a title shot, though whether that happens given Barnett's history and the seeming lack of interest in Rothwell as a contender is another story.
Despite his nearly two decades in MMA, Barnett shows few signs of aging. He's one of the most skilled all-around heavyweights in the game, still has surprising athleticism and fights with a nasty, aggressive edge.
While he doesn't get much credit for it, Barnett is a crafty and dangerous striker. Pressure is his bread and butter, and he moves forward in both stances behind a crisp, consistent jab and a steady diet of kicks. He's happy to exchange in the pocket, and although he isn't a power puncher, he does have enough pop to demand his opponent's respect.
Striking mostly serves to bring Barnett into his wheelhouse, the clinch. The veteran is one of the best and most dangerous inside fighters in the entire sport, and he is capable of pinning his opponent against the fence for minutes at a time and chipping away with short punches, knees and elbows. The combination of strong head pressure and constant strikes wears his opponent down and piles up the damage.
A few trips in the clinch and shot takedowns comprise Barnett's offensive wrestling repertoire. Defensive wrestling isn't his strongest suit, though he is competent.
Barnett's top game is his best skill set. The catch-wrestling master constantly pressures his opponent and makes him uncomfortable, mixing strikes, passes and submissions in a threatening and effective whole. Arm triangles and kimuras are particular specialties.
Rothwell is a striker by trade. He likes to stalk his opponent, flinging hard low kicks as he does so, and then he picks his spots to commit to forward-moving punching combinations. Exchanging in the pocket is a specialty for the durable Rothwell, who takes a great punch and is more than happy to fire back with his own powerful combinations.
If he can get into the clinch, Rothwell's size and strength come into play in a major way. He throws brutal short uppercuts and sharp knees and excels at landing as he exits.
Those are the good parts of Rothwell's game, but on the downside, he's slow and plodding, doesn't have great pressure footwork and is defensively subpar.
Strong defensive wrestling powers Rothwell's game. He can hit the occasional takedown of his own and does good work from the top for added variety. Plus, he has an increasing ability to find his opponent's neck in transition with guillotines.
Betting Odds
Barnett -135, Rothwell +115
Prediction
While Barnett's advancing age (38) is a concern, Rothwell is no spring chicken himself at 34 and with 15 years of professional experience under his belt. From a skills perspective, Barnett holds advantages in everything except perhaps the striking, and even that is fairly close. Rothwell has a substantial edge in power, but Barnett has always been durable and has better cardio to boot.
If Barnett can weather the first several minutes, and that's a big if, this is his fight to lose. The combination of working in the clinch, avoiding exchanges and eventually getting the fight to the floor should wear Rothwell down and open up the finish. Barnett snags a submission in the second round.
Anthony Johnson vs. Ryan Bader
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Light Heavyweights
Anthony Johnson (20-5; 11-5 UFC) vs. Ryan Bader (20-4; 13-4 UFC)
Two of the light heavyweight division's best meet in a crackling matchup at 205 pounds. Johnson rode a nine-fight winning streak, including three in the UFC, into a title fight with Daniel Cormier. The former welterweight came up short, however, and fell to a rear-naked choke in the third round. A brutal knockout win over Jimi Manuwa got him back on track in September.
The perennially overlooked Bader is on the best run of his career. He has won five in a row since a knockout loss at the hands of Glover Teixeira in September 2013, though all of them have been by decision. Only a split decision over Phil Davis was in any way controversial, however, and clear wins over former champion Rashad Evans, Ovince Saint Preux and Rafael Cavalcante have showcased his growth and skill.
This is almost certainly a top contender's matchup in the thin light heavyweight division. On one hand, the UFC would probably prefer a Johnson win to set up either a rematch with Cormier or a fresh fight with Jon Jones. On the other hand, Bader hasn't fought Cormier, and it was nearly five years ago that Jones demolished Bader to set up his title shot, so both of those matchups might carry some interest.
Johnson is an athletic, quick puncher with surprising craft to his striking arsenal. He's dangerous from both stances and uses shifts from one to the other to cover distance quickly and give himself additional angles from which to land devastating power shots.
Aggression is the hallmark of Johnson's game. A sharp jab and kicks help push his opponent back toward the fence and draw out a response, and once he attempts to fire back, Johnson drops brutal counter combinations. Constant head movement loads Johnson's hips in preparation for those counters and makes him hard to hit as he pressures.
Potent kicks provide a complement to Johnson's hands. Sharp low kicks follow his punching combinations, and he hides sneaky high kicks behind the threat of his hands. Strong balance and generally clean mechanics allow him to go from punches to kicks and back to punches all while remaining in the pocket.
While he's mostly known as a striker, Johnson was a junior college national wrestling champion, and that facet of his game is still sharp. Rock-solid defensive wrestling skills mostly keep him standing, and he controls distance well enough that it's hard to get a shot at his hips in the first place. Cormier was able to grind him down, but it took world-class skills and serious durability to make that happen.
Explosive, authoritative doubles add some variety to Johnson's game. Aside from landing a few strikes, top control isn't his game, but he drops bombs from riding positions and in transition. He offers nothing from the bottom and has a bad habit of giving up his back as he attempts to get up when taken down.
It seems like Bader has been around forever, and with 17 UFC fights under his belt, he has been. He came into the UFC as a raw prospect, however, and has made consistent improvements over his time in the promotion. All of those years and work have developed him into the well-rounded and skilled Bader of today.
While Bader has always had power, his striking game lacked much in the way of craft. That's not true anymore. A crisp and tricky jab is the basis of his work at range, and he uses it to measure distance, set the range he wants and disrupt his opponent's rhythm when he's about to throw a strike. He moves constantly and does a great job of finding angles and using the space of the cage.
That power is still there, of course, and Bader still has a slick right hand and left hook. He excels at sneaking his shots around and through his opponent's guard, which shows just how much better he sees the fight unfolding in front of him than he used to. A nasty switch kick to the body and consistent right low kick add some variety, but boxing is the basis of Bader's approach.
Wrestling is still Bader's forte. He shoots one of the most explosive and technically sound doubles in MMA but is even better at working takedown chains. Strikes cover his level changes, and he throws strikes off level changes and failed takedowns, which makes both even more effective.
Once he gets his hands on his opponent, Bader is simply suffocating. He moves smoothly between standard top control, with passes and a few strikes, and wrestling control positions. It's a demoralizing game to have to fight through: He fights through layers of takedown defense to get his opponent down, lands a few strikes, lets him move, grabs a top ride, lands a few more strikes and re-establishes control.
Bader can eat up entire rounds doing that. His cardio is good enough to work for five rounds if necessary, and he pushes a strong pace. Durability will always be a concern after he suffered a pair of knockout losses, but it hasn't been a problem recently.
Betting Odds
Johnson -310, Bader +255
Prediction
The oddsmakers aren't giving Bader much of a shot, and it's easy to see why.
There are essentially two possible scenarios for this fight. In the first, less likely scenario, Bader copies Cormier's game plan and pressures relentlessly, walking through Johnson's strikes to get into clinches and onto his hips for takedown chains. Eventually, he would wear Johnson down and either take a decision or potentially finish with a submission.
The problem with that line of thinking is that Bader is neither as accomplished a wrestler as Cormier is nor as durable. The second and more likely scenario involves Johnson stuffing Bader's takedowns and working him over at range with counters and his own aggressive pressure before landing the knockout strike.
The balance of the matchup favors Johnson. The pick is Johnson by knockout in the second round.
All betting odds via Odds Shark.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. He can be found on Twitter.
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