Chicago Bulls Most Likely to Be Traded Before the Deadline
The Chicago Bulls have had a pretty tumultuous start to the year, and much of what is happening impacts what they may do before the trade deadline on Feb. 18.
Already an up-and-down squad, consistently winning against good teams while getting beaten by horrible ones, the Bulls took a major hit to the soul when they learned they had likely lost Joakim Noah for the season because of surgery on a separated shoulder.
Even the subject of what direction they should move is now up in the air. Nick Friedell of ESPN argues for cashing out, and Kevin Ding of Bleacher Report counters that the Bulls still have the means to make it work. Sean Highkin, also from Bleacher Report, concludes that it probably doesn’t much matter because the Bulls aren’t getting better by trade, regardless.
Adrian Wojnarowski revealed on his Vertical podcast in December that the Bulls were looking for a trade, naming the likes of Taj Gibson or pre-injury Noah as a potential trade chip (h/t BullsBlogger at Blog a Bull for the transcript):
"Executives around the league and people have told me, that the Bulls are very determined to add a talented wing player. Tony Snell has been given a lot of opportunities, and he hasn't established himself, and I've been told that the Bulls are open to...whether it's Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson...maybe not both of them, but either of them if there's a deal out there that they can bring in the best possible wing player available, they're open to it. That's a direction they're going to go in. They need more shooting...to shape this team towards more of an offensive-minded group.
"
The Chicago Sun-Times' Joe Cowley reported that Pau Gasol may also be in the trade mix: "The likes of Gibson, Noah and Gasol might not even see the end of their current contracts, as several sources indicated that the Bulls are taking calls on all three players as the trade deadline draws near."
Since it’s pretty unlikely that someone trades for Noah out of purely philanthropic motives, that short list is trimmed down to two names—Gasol and Gibson—whom the Bulls could theoretically move before the trade deadline.
Taj Gibson
Gibson is the type of player teams love to have. He’s a hard worker who does whatever his coach asks.
While he started his career as mostly a defensive player, he’s slowly evolved the offensive aspects of his game. He’s still not a great scorer, but he’s now good enough that a team isn't playing four-on-five with him on the court.
One could best describe him as average when his team has the ball. He’s a decent roll-man to the basket, coming in the 53rd percentile at 1.03 points per play, according to NBA.com. And he’s developed his mid-range game, as revealed by his shot chart.
However, Gibson still tries more post-up moves than he should, tending to get stuck there sometimes. And his range is limited to about 16 feet, as he’s only made eight of 19 shots from outside of that, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
He’s also one of just 14 big men to accumulate 7.9 defensive win shares and a player efficiency rating of 15 or better over the last three seasons.
In sum, Gibson is a fringe top-20 power forward in the league.
Although he’s the type of player one likes on his team, Gibson is not the type of player a team trades for at the deadline. Is he the guy who’s going to help save a season? That’s not likely.
The exception is if a team in contention loses its starting power forward to an injury. Then, an experienced and intelligent guy who can fill in the role and play both ends would be worth acquiring.
Pau Gasol
Pau Gasol is more attractive to a team making a short-term deal to get over the hump.
While his slow-footedness makes him prone to getting picked apart on high pick-and-rolls, it’s a weakness that can be worked around, as the Bulls have done this year. Sure, he gets beaten some, but the Bulls' defensive rating with him on the court is still 100.4, which is slightly better than seventh-best 100.5 NBA-wide. And his 2.2 blocks and rim protection still add some value, even if it’s inflated.
His offense, too, looks better on the surface with 16.3 points and 10.8 boards than it actually is. Although his field-goal percentage doesn’t reflect his value on the offensive side of the pick-and-pop game (where Gasol has been understatedly a big part of the reason for Derrick Rose’s recent resurgence), it has been his screens freeing up the path to the rim.
More importantly, he's a low-post scoring threat with championship experience. He’s not the guy one is going to throw out the future to trade for, but if a team feels like it needs that little piece to get over the hump, Gasol would be the best scoring big on the market.
However, his return would probably be less because he has a player option he’s likely to walk away from at the end of the year. Gasol would be a true rental. So the Bulls wouldn’t get much more than second-round picks back. But the counter to that argument is “not much” is better than “nothing at all.”
Should Chicago Make a Trade?
How do you feel about the Bulls' chances of getting anywhere in the postseason?
It’s hard to envision a way the Bulls get better now by making a trade. Neither Gasol nor Gibson brings back a starting-caliber wing. At best, Gibson could be exchanged for a rotation piece.
The present climate of the NBA is such that wings who can defend and shoot, which is what the Bulls are shopping for, are the scarcer and more precious commodity.
The predictable “our midseason move is Mike Dunleavy getting better” quote is also probably on point. The Bulls just aren’t going to get a better 3 than Dunleavy in the trade market with what they have to offer.
However, if the front office acknowledges that there’s no realistic scenario where this group gets past LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers to then beat the historically good Golden State Warriors/San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals, it could make a move for the future.
In that scenario, trading Gibson for an expiring contract is preferable because it frees up more cap space. After shedding Noah’s, Gibson’s and Gasol’s contracts this offseason, along with Kirk Hinrich’s falling off the books (and Richard Hamilton’s finally going away), the Bulls would be down to $57.7 million in guaranteed contracts, based on salary information from Basketball Insiders.
| Name | Salary |
| Derrick Rose | $21,323,252 |
| Jimmy Butler | $17,552,209 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $5,782,450 |
| Mike Dunleavy | $4,837,500 |
| Doug McDermott | $2,483,040 |
| Tony Snell | $2,368,327 |
| Bobby Portis | $1,453,680 |
| Cameron Bairstow | $980,431 |
| Cristiano Felicio | $874,636 |
| TOTAL | $57,655,525 |
That would leave them room to offer a max contract to someone such as Harrison Barnes next summer, revamping a core around Barnes, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis. Heck, if Rose continues his recent level of performance, why not him too? And if not, his contract goes away the following summer and corresponds with another giant salary bump.
Rebuilding on the fly wouldn't be that hard, and it would be worth thinking about.
Fundamentally, the front office of general manager Gar Forman and director of basketball operations John Paxson has to realize that it's saddled new coach Fred Hoiberg with a roster that limits his schemes. He’s tried; it's tried. It’s not working. Ergo, if a situation arises where the Bulls must shed someone for a brighter future, that’s the best course of action.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
