
Heisman Watch List 2016: Early Odds for 2016 College Football Season
The offseason between the 2015 and 2016 college football seasons is only officially a week old, but that hasn't stopped anyone from projecting the next race for the Heisman Trophy.
Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer posted his top-five odds for the 2016 Heisman Trophy race shortly after the 2015 trophy was awarded to Alabama Crimson Tide running back Derrick Henry.
According to Steve Petrella of Sporting News, Irish sports book Paddy Power has already released its own odds. Danny Sheridan of USA Today tweeted out Heisman odds last week. The odds from Bovada came out Tuesday afternoon, per Ted Miller of ESPN.
With two of the top three Heisman finalists from last season and the runaway midseason favorite all returning for 2016, this fall's race could be one of the closest in recent memory. Several other top playmakers will be back on campus, including a handful of big-play running backs who played their part in a major renaissance at the position in 2015.
Here are some early projected odds for 10 of the best Heisman candidates for next season, based on what they did in 2015 and what they could bring to the table in 2016.
Tell us your early favorites for the 2016 Heisman and which players are undervalued right now in the comments below.
Other Names to Consider
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The following countdown consists of 10 early favorites for the 2016 Heisman Trophy, but those aren't the only names that will receive preseason hype for the game's most famous award. Here are 15 more names to watch for next season's massive race.
- Alabama WR Calvin Ridley
- Arizona QB Anu Solomon
- Houston QB Greg Ward Jr.
- Miami QB Brad Kaaya
- Michigan ATH Jabrill Peppers
- North Carolina RB Elijah Hood
- Notre Dame QBs DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire
- Oklahoma RB Samaje Perine
- Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph
- Tennessee QB Joshua Dobbs
- Texas A&M WR Christian Kirk
- UCLA QB Josh Rosen
- USC ATH Adoree' Jackson
- Washington State QB Luke Falk
10. Georgia RB Nick Chubb
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2015 Stats
92 carries for 747 yards and seven TDs; four receptions for 32 yards and one TD
The Hype
When healthy, Nick Chubb has been nearly unstoppable for the Georgia Bulldogs. He averaged more than seven yards per carry as a true freshman in 2014 and was at 8.12 per touch in 2015 before suffering a devastating knee injury against the Tennessee Volunteers. A touchdown threat every time he touches the football, Chubb has rushed for 120 or more yards in every game he's received at least a dozen carries.
The Caution
This will be a year of great transition for Georgia with a new coaching staff and several new starters along the offensive line. Chubb's backfield mate at the No. 1 quarterback spot is also up in the air right now. On top of all that, there are the obvious health concerns with a potential Heisman campaign for Chubb.
Preseason Odds: 20-to-1
9. Oregon RB Royce Freeman
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2015 Stats
283 carries for 1,836 yards and 17 TDs; 26 receptions for 348 yards and two TDs
The Hype
A constant big-play threat in the Oregon Ducks' already-stacked offense, Royce Freeman followed up a strong freshman campaign with a monster sophomore season in 2015. He averaged nearly 6.5 yards per carry, rushed for 100-plus yards in 11 of 13 games and set a new single-season record for yardage at Oregon. He was a sure thing for a team that was constantly in flux last season.
The Caution
So why did Freeman get overlooked in a Heisman race with stats like those? Oregon's lackluster start to the season played a major role, and the Ducks weren't in the national spotlight as much as they were used to. In 2016, Oregon will break in a new FCS transfer at quarterback in addition to new starters on both lines. It could be another average year in Eugene, which would hurt Freeman's Heisman chances.
Preseason Odds: 19-to-1
8. Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly
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2015 Stats
298-of-458 passing (65.1 percent) for 4,042 yards, 31 TDs and 13 INTs; 107 carries for 500 yards and 10 TDs
The Hype
Chad Kelly is staying for round two in Oxford after going over 4,500 yards of total offense and 40 touchdowns last season. The former JUCO transfer did an excellent job orchestrating head coach Hugh Freeze's uptempo attack, and he'll still be able to rely on three receivers who hauled in at least 36 catches in 2015. With another year of preparation, Kelly's numbers could be otherworldly in 2016.
The Caution
The Ole Miss Rebels have some key pieces to replace around Kelly, most notably all-world receiver Laquon Treadwell and star left tackle Laremy Tunsil. The Rebels will need a couple more faces to step up in front of Kelly on the offensive line, too. A front-loaded schedule with matchups against the Florida State Seminoles, Alabama, Georgia and the LSU Tigers inside the first seven games could doom Kelly's Heisman hopes before they even get started.
Preseason Odds: 16-to-1
7. Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett
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2015 Stats
93-of-147 passing (63.3 percent) for 992 yards, 11 TDs and four INTs; 115 carries for 682 yards and 11 TDs
The Hype
As Zac Ellis of Sports Illustrated notes, J.T. Barrett was probably an ankle injury away from becoming a Heisman finalist in the 2014 season. After head coach Urban Meyer replaced Cardale Jones with Barrett in the starting lineup midway through 2015, the dual-threat quarterback scored 13 touchdowns in just five games and cracked the 200-yard mark in total offense four times. Barrett should be the clear-cut starter from the opening kickoff in 2016.
The Caution
Much of the supporting cast that made Barrett such a phenomenal starting quarterback in 2014 and 2015—including star running back Ezekiel Elliott and top receiver Michael Thomas—won't be in Columbus for 2016. If the reloading Ohio State Buckeyes don't stay in the thick of the playoff race late into the regular season, Barrett might not get a chance to make that trip to New York City as a Heisman finalist.
Preseason Odds: 15-to-1
6. Baylor QB Seth Russell
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2015 Stats
119-of-205 passing (59.5 percent) for 2,104 yards, 29 TDs and six INTs; 49 carries for 402 yards and six TDs
The Hype
Seth Russell had 35 touchdowns and more than 2,500 yards of total offense in just seven games this past season. If he stays healthy, the sky's the limit for Russell in head coach Art Briles' No. 1-rated offense with the Baylor Bears, who also return two top-notch running backs. Russell's 10.5 yards per pass attempt and 8.2 yards per carry marks as a starter in 2015 would have been the best in the nation by a sizable margin.
The Caution
Health, of course, could be a factor in Russell's Heisman campaign next season. Baylor will have to replace two of Russell's top three receivers, most of his offensive line and several key players on a defensive front that made the Bears a more balanced title contender in 2014 and 2015. Briles' offense is as plug-and-play as they come, but will the Bears be able to overcome that much turnover on the roster?
Preseason Odds: 12-to-1
5. Florida State RB Dalvin Cook
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2015 Stats
229 carries for 1,691 yards and 19 TDs; 24 receptions for 244 yards and one TD
The Hype
Dalvin Cook's 2015 season somehow flew under the national radar during the "year of the running back." He had the second-most yards per carry of any FBS rusher with at least 100 touches, and he found the end zone in all but one game. As Christian D'Andrea of SB Nation noted, Cook averaged more yards and touchdowns per game against bowl-eligible opponents than eventual Heisman winner Derrick Henry. That's huge.
The Caution
Consistency is Cook's biggest negative in what is an otherwise sparkling preseason Heisman resume. While he was the nation's most explosive running back in 2015, Cook fell well below his high standards in games against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and Houston Cougars—two of FSU's three losses. Injuries kept him out of virtually two whole games, so staying healthy for a full season is paramount.
Preseason Odds: 10-to-1
4. Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield
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2015 Stats
269-of-395 passing (69.1 percent) for 3,700 yards, 36 TDs and seven INTs; 141 carries for 405 yards and seven TDs
The Hype
Baker Mayfield's ridiculous numbers in 2015—he threw five times more touchdowns than he did interceptions and had the fourth-best completion percentage in the process—still weren't enough to earn a trip to the Heisman ceremony in December. Expect that snub to fuel a motivated quarterback who told Ryan Aber of the Oklahoman that he "had a chip on [his] shoulder" last season. He'll be on a mission in an offense that returns running back Samaje Perine and several top-notch receivers.
The Caution
The Oklahoma Sooners' 2016 schedule is simply murderous, even though they should be favored in almost all of their games. Mayfield will have to face Houston and Ohio State in nonconference play and travel to face the TCU Horned Frogs within the first four weeks of the season. If Oklahoma slips up early, Mayfield will have to play catch-up in a crowded Heisman field.
Preseason Odds: 9-to-1
3. Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey
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2015 Stats
337 carries for 2,019 yards and eight TDs; 45 receptions for 645 yards and five TDs; 37 kick returns for 1,070 yards and one TD; 15 punt returns for 130 yards and one TD; 2-of-3 passing for 39 yards and two TDs
The Hype
Well, for starters, Christian McCaffrey broke the all-time NCAA single-season record for all-purpose yardage that was held by the legendary Barry Sanders. McCaffrey was the Heisman runner-up after that record-smashing season, and he opened his 2016 with a massive statement by racking up 368 yards against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Rose Bowl. If the Stanford Cardinal have the ball or are about to get the ball, McCaffrey will be involved—and usually doing something amazing.
The Caution
Geography could continue to be a hindrance for McCaffrey's award campaigns, as a good majority of Stanford games kick off at late hours for East Coast voters. Defenses will look to key on him more in the running game next season with the Cardinal breaking in a new quarterback to replace veteran Kevin Hogan. He'll also need to score more touchdowns than he did in 2015 in order to keep up with other scoring machines.
Preseason Odds: 8-to-1
2. LSU RB Leonard Fournette
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2015 Stats
300 carries for 1,953 yards and 22 TDs; 19 receptions for 253 yards and one TD
The Hype
Leonard Fournette seemingly had the Heisman locked up by the halfway point of the 2015 season, but a dreadful trip against Alabama changed all that. Still, Fournette averaged more rushing yards per game than any other player in college football last season and had the fourth-most touchdowns on the ground. LSU is returning a massive amount of talent all over the field, and a stronger passing game should give him more room to wreak havoc in 2016.
The Caution
Alabama isn't going anywhere, and Fournette will have to get his revenge when the Crimson Tide visit Death Valley in early November. When it comes to defense, LSU's 2016 schedule looks much tougher than the one Fournette rampaged through in 2015—the Tigers pick up the top-10 defenses of the Wisconsin Badgers and Missouri Tigers in addition to the matchups against Alabama and the Florida Gators. Fournette can't disappear against high-quality competition again.
Preseason Odds: 5-to-1
1. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson
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2015 Stats
333-of-491 passing (67.8 percent) for 4,104 yards, 35 TDs and 13 INTs; 207 carries for 1,105 yards and 12 TDs
The Hype
The nation's best quarterback from the 2015 season is back for another year after almost completing an undefeated season with a national title. Deshaun Watson was the first FBS quarterback ever to have 4,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards in a single campaign. The Clemson Tigers return most of the offensive talent around him—including star receiver Mike Williams, who missed nearly the entire 2015 season—and will be a heavy 2016 championship favorite.
The Caution
The case for Watson to be the early favorite for the 2016 Heisman Trophy is nearly flawless. Clemson has to travel to Florida State this season, and the Tigers will most likely have to win that game in order to make another run at the College Football Playoff. The defense needs to replace several key starters, but Clemson did that before running to the title game last season. Watson has the talent, supporting cast and name recognition needed for a runaway Heisman campaign.
Preseason Odds: 3-to-1
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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