Alabama vs. Clemson: Odds and 2016 College Football Championship Prediction
After months of debating the best college football team in the country, the Alabama Crimson Tide and Clemson Tigers will now get a chance to prove themselves on the field in the College Football Championship.
Each team has a legitimate argument as the top squad coming into the game. The Tigers are the only undefeated team left in college football with impressive wins over Stanford, Notre Dame and most recently Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide do have a loss, but it came back in September. Since then they have been dominant against quality SEC opponents as well as Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The good news is it doesn't matter what these teams did to this point, only which can win Monday night. Here is a look at what you need to know heading into the highly anticipated battle with a prediction for who will take home the trophy.
When: Monday, Jan. 11
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: Watch ESPN
Odds (via Odds Shark):
- Spread: Alabama -6.5
- Over/Under: 50.5
Why Alabama Will Win
The Crimson Tide have the best player in college football on offense, as evident with Derrick Henry taking home the Heisman Trophy last month. The running back leads the country with 2,061 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns and should add to these totals even against a solid Clemson defense.
This is him destroying All-American defensive end Shilique Calhoun his last time out:
Henry didn't put up huge numbers against Michigan State because in reality he wasn't needed all that much, although he still had 75 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Before that, he totaled 90 carries for 460 rushing yards in the two previous games.
The Cotton Bowl also featured a breakout of sorts for quarterback Jake Coker, who went 25-of-30 for 286 passing yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. If you do put all your energy on stopping the run, Coker, Calvin Ridley and O.J. Howard can beat you in the passing game.
Add this offensive attack to an elite defense that ranks No. 3 in points allowed per game, and it will be difficult for anyone to beat. The front seven will slow down Wayne Gallman and put pressure on quarterback DeShaun Watson to do it all himself. As good as he is, this might be too much for anyone to handle.
Alabama can keep Clemson's offense in check and will score enough points to secure a win.
Why Clemson Will Win
Michigan State had the defensive line and linebackers to slow down Alabama's run game, holding Henry to just 3.8 yards per carry. The problem is the Spartans didn't have the secondary to keep Alabama from passing over the stacked box up front.
Clemson doesn't have this problem with an elite cornerback in MacKensie Alexander and safety Jayron Kearse leading one of the best defensive backfields in college football. The Tigers can afford to leave these players in one-on-one situations and focus on shutting down the run.
With defensive end Shaq Lawson expecting to play despite a knee injury, the defense should be able to hold up against a strong Alabama offensive line.
On the other side of the ball, the Tide have played well but have not faced anyone quite like Watson at quarterback this season. Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart compared him to a few top SEC talents from past years, per Alex Scarborough of ESPN:
The scary thing is all of these players have beaten head coach Nick Saban's teams in the past, showing a trend with the team's struggles with mobile quarterbacks. This is a new set of players on the field, but they haven't proven the ability to shut down a playmaker of this ability.
Watson can put the team on his back and lead the Tigers offensively while the defense does just enough to pull off the upset.
Prediction
Clearly both teams have a good chance of winning this game, but the difference will be big men down low. The national championship will be won and lost in the trenches, which heavily favors Alabama.
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney gave high praise for the Tide's defensive line, per Dan Hope of the Independent Mail:
Not only does the group have multiple players ticketed for the NFL like A'Shawn Robinson and Jarran Reed, the team also is deep enough to rotate close to a dozen players without much drop-off. The defensive front can stop the run with either Gallman or Watson as well as put pressure on the quarterback when he tries to throw the ball.
Watson is the best offensive player Alabama has faced this year, but he still won't put up huge numbers against this terrifying front.
Offensively, the Tide also have the advantage thanks to an offensive line led by center Ryan Kelly. He will help clear enough space for Henry to allow the nation's rushing leader to pile on more yards and get into the end zone as he has in every other game this year.
Clemson has the talent on both sides of the ball to keep it close (and cover the spread), but Alabama should escape with another national title in a low-scoring battle.
Predicted score: Alabama 24, Clemson 20
Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter for year-round sports analysis.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
