Anthony Pettis vs. Eddie Alvarez: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
No. 1-ranked lightweight contender Anthony Pettis (18-3) will make his return for the first time since losing the UFC lightweight title, and No. 4-ranked Eddie Alvarez (26-4) will be awaiting him on the other side of the cage.
The two possible title contenders will co-main event UFC Fight Night 81 on Sunday at the TD Garden in Boston.
Both Alvarez and Pettis have had a lengthy stint away from the cage, and one could argue it was well deserved after their previous bouts. Everyone should see revitalized and motivated fighters inside the Octagon this weekend. And that makes for a compelling scrap between two of the most exciting fighters in the division.
The three-round affair has major implications not only due to the fighter's rankings but because the recent news surrounding Conor McGregor vs. Rafael dos Anjos has brought a spotlight back to the division. Who will walk out of Boston with momentum toward the gold?
This is your head-to-toe breakdown of UFC Fight Night 81's co-main event.
Striking
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Alvarez is a quality striker with high output, but Pettis gets the nod as the better overall striker.
The former Bellator champion has been in his share of brawls before, but that is not the route to go with Pettis. The former WEC and UFC lightweight title holder shows off his diversity in nearly every contest. The "Showtime Kick" gets all the plays on the highlight reel, but it's Pettis' jab and leg kicks that should get the press.
Pettis' movement is truly the deciding factor. He won't get caught flat-footed in the pocket with Alvarez. That's not his game.
Expect Pettis to be able to evade Alvarez's pressure and punish him as he closes the distance. Diversity and movement make Pettis the superior striker.
Edge: Pettis
Grappling
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Neither fighter is known as one of the best grapplers in this division, but each brings to the table undervalued wrestling skills.
Pettis has steadily improved throughout his career, and it has been assisted by the likes of Ben Askren and others. Even still, Pettis' defense is probably his calling card with his athleticism and balance. Offensively he still needs work.
I give the edge to Alvarez.
He is not thought of as a wrestler as he did not go the collegiate route, but his basics are still superb. Ask Gilbert Melendez, who he was able to take to the canvas three times. Alvarez's penchant for wild exchanges takes the focus away from other areas where he is excellent—such as offensive grappling.
Do not be shocked if Alvarez tries to cut off the cage and turn this into a grind.
Edge: Alvarez
Submissions
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If you can submit Benson Henderson I am inclined just to give you the edge in submissions, and Pettis was able to do just that.
Henderson is notorious for his flexibility and submission defense, and Pettis made it look rather easy by submitting him via armbar in just 4:31 in their 2013 meeting. The last time Alvarez made anyone tap out was 2010.
Alvarez certainly has submission capabilities, and he is more likely to have better positioning with his edge in grappling. However, he does not have as many options as Pettis nor is he as explosive. Those two factors are what give Pettis the edge.
Pettis can quickly transition to an appendage off his back, or lace up a choke in a short burst. Alvarez will have to be very careful should he take this fight to the canvas. Don't sleep on Pettis' submission game.
Edge: Pettis
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X-Factors
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Alvarez's X-Factor: Taking Damage
Because of how Alvarez closed out his fight at UFC 188 against Melendez, a lot of folks seemingly forgot how that fight started—with Alvarez getting his face smashed.
And that fight was not an anomaly. Alvarez is very hittable and has worn a lot of damage in his MMA career. Donald Cerrone beat him up, and the wars with Michael Chandler took their toll. Defense has not been his strong suit.
If he has not tightened up his striking defense, I am not sure he can make it 15 minutes with Pettis. And even if he does I am unsure if the judges will be able to overlook the damage he wears on his face.
Pettis' X-Factor: Pressure
Alvarez can negate the damage by pressuring Pettis. It was something dos Anjos was very effective at doing when he took the gold belt off Pettis. Dos Anjos took Pettis' power and movement away with pressure.
Alvarez is a totally different fighter than dos Anjos, but he has to find a way to replicate that same style of pressure.
If Pettis can find space and fight at range, this is going to be a repeat of the Cerrone beatdown. If Alvarez does try the constant pressure attack, it will be interesting to see what changes Pettis has made to keep his back off the fence.
Prediction
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If you followed along slide-by-slide, then you should know what I think Alvarez's best chance to topple Pettis is: turning himself into a pressure grappler. The bad news for Alvarez is that isn't his style.
Pettis is going to return with a vicious knockout over Alvarez.
Alvarez is not going to be able to pull a dos Anjos, and he won't be able to corner Pettis long enough to make his grappling effective. As he begins to chase Pettis, Alvarez will leave gaping holes that can be exploited by the former UFC champion. As Alvarez marches forward that is when Pettis will stop, plant and connect with a devastating power shot to put him to sleep.
An overhand right or a right knee up the middle will be the technique that gets the job done.
It'll be "Showtime" in the Octagon once again on Sunday.
Prediction: Pettis defeats Alvarez by KO in the first round
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