Deontay Wilder vs. Artur Szpilka: Preview, Prediction for Heavyweight Title Bout
Next weekend at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York, WBC heavyweight champion Deontay Wilder puts his belt on the line against Polish contender Artur Szpilka. This will be Wilder's third defense.
Szpilka is a rugged southpaw who has fought often in the U.S., particularly in Chicago, where he's developed a loyal following among the Polish-American community.
Wilder's version of the championship doesn't have the same historical legitimacy as the belts Tyson Fury holds. But with an undefeated record and 34 KOs in 35 fights, Wilder is definitely a fighter who demands attention.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per Boxrec | Deontay Wilder | Artur Szpilka |
| Record: | 35-0, 34 KOs | 20-1, 15 KOs |
| Height: | 6'7" | 6'3" |
| Reach: | 83" | 77" |
| Weight: | About 225 pounds | About 230 pounds |
| Age: | 30 | 26 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Hometown: | Tuscaloosa, Alabama | Wieliczka, Poland |
| Rounds: | 90 | 85 |
Szpilka is an experienced heavyweight fighter for being just 26 years old. He turned professional at age 19 and has faced high-level opposition.
Szpilka has good power, but Wilder's knockout ratio is astonishing. Wilder has the edge in length, but Szpilka's build is more like a classic heavyweight boxer.
Main Storylines
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Wilder did not take up boxing until after he graduated from high school, but he's shown an undeniable aptitude for the sport. He won a national Golden Gloves championship in just his 16th amateur fight. He qualified for the 2008 Olympics with just 21 bouts and then won a bronze medal at the games.
So while I can understand fans who are hesitant to embrace him as the next great heavyweight champion, what he's accomplished to date is still pretty exceptional.
Wilder knocked out the first 32 opponents of his career before winning the WBC title by unanimous decision over Bermane Stiverne in January 2015.
Wilder has fattened his record on mostly lower-level competition. While Szpilka might not be the top contender that some fans would like to see him face, he is definitely the best opponent Wilder has been up against, aside from perhaps Stiverne.
Szpilka knocked out Mike Mollo twice in two action-packed wars in 2013. He lost the only fight of his career to Bryant Jennings by Round 10 TKO in January 2014 but rebounded to beat two-division world champion and long-time heavyweight contender Tomasz Adamek in November of the same year.
In 2015, Szpilka began working with Ronnie Shields, one of the sport's premier trainers. With Shields, he's gone 3-0, knocking out journeymen Ty Cobb, Manuel Quezada and Yasmany Consuegra. This fight with Wilder is the big break of his career.
Strengths
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Wilder is a good, natural athlete and has explosive power in both of his hands. He uses a solid jab to exploit the reach advantage he has against most opponents, and he strings his combinations together in fluid, dynamic attacks.
Wilder's quality of opposition can be criticized, but he clearly hits hard enough to stop a truck.
Szpilka is a rugged, determined fighter; he's mentally and physically tough. He sits down well on his power punches, giving him fight-changing power with both his left hand as well as his lead, right hook.
At 26, he has a nice combination of youth and experience. Working with Shields is sure to have made him a better fighter than he was against Jennings and Adamek.
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Weaknesses
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Wilder has thin legs and a lean torso for a top heavyweight. We've yet to see how he'll stand up to a hard, consistent body attack.
While Wilder's confidence has been an advantage for him to date, the kind of easy campaign he's had in his career so far creates a real risk that he'll prove a front-runner and come undone when he faces real adversity in the ring.
Szpilka has a habit of pawing with his jab, like a range finder, which leaves him vulnerable to attacks over the top of his lead right hand. He can also be lazy about returning that jab hand to a good, defensive position.
Even in fights he has won, Szpilka has had a tendency to get wild in exchanges and leave the openings for his opponents.
Deontay Wilder Will Win If...
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Wilder's jab is going to be a critical punch in this fight. He needs to work to establish it early, to maintain distance and utilize his 5-inch advantage in reach.
Wilder has to keep Szpilka at the end of his punches. The Polish southpaw will need to move his own lead right foot to the outside of Wilder's lead left. Wilder can stop that movement by stringing the right hook off from his jab, to stop Szpilka short.
If Wilder can keep Szpilka from consistently grabbing the better angles, he'll have the challenger right where he wants him, in position for the big right hand down the middle. If that happens, Wilder should win this fight.
Artur Szpilka Will Win If...
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Range will mean everything for Szpilka in this fight. He's got to stay either on the outside of Wilder's punches or else slip inside of them. If he finds himself spending time at the end of Wilder's punches, he runs a very serious risk of becoming KO victim No. 35.
To control the range, Szpilka is going to need to get off first with his own jab. He's got to pump it quickly as Wilder comes forward on him, then slip to his right to get an angle on the outside of Wilder's lead left foot.
He better be very disciplined about returning his jab hand to defensive position, or Wilder will crush him with left hooks to the head.
If Szpilka can spend a lot of time to the outside of Wilder's left foot, it will keep him away from the big bombs and give him a chance to move inside and turn things rough. He wants to hammer at Wilder's torso and look to throw uppercuts off from hooks to the rib cage.
To win this fight, Szpilka needs his usual toughness but just a bit more technical skill than he's shown to date.
Prediction
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Many people are going to be surprised by how tough this fight ends up being for Wilder. Szpilka lost to Jennings two years ago. He's improved a lot since then, while working with a great trainer in Shields.
Szpilka should be able to stand up to some big punches from Wilder and also limit the number of bombs that the champ is able to drop. This is going to be an ugly, awkward fight, exciting at times and very competitive.
I expect Wilder to win a close, but clear, decision. Wilder is the more accurate puncher, and when the pace picks up in this fight, I expect Szpilka to be hittable. The rugged Polish contender will finish standing, but he'll take punishment along the way.
If Wilder does not face either Luis Ortiz, Alexander Povetkin or Fury during 2016, it will be hard to keep taking him seriously as a champion. He's got the potential to become a major star in the sport, but he's got to defeat true, elite contenders to do it.
While I think Szpilka will lose here, I expect his stock to rise in defeat. He'll walk away established as an obvious gatekeeper in the division. And at 26, he might even have time to keep developing into a more dangerous contender.
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