Steelers vs. Bengals: Odds, Stat Predictions for 2016 AFC Wild Card Game

A heated AFC North rivalry between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals carries into Wild Card Weekend. Their previous playoff meeting spurned years of bad blood, which will boil to the surface on Saturday.    

Ten years ago, the Bengals snapped a 15-year postseason drought, and they were poised to do damage. Then quarterback Carson Palmer got hurt on his first pass—a 66-yard completion—and the Steelers won the Wild Card Round matchup and the Super Bowl.

A decade later, quarterback Andy Dalton ended a breakout season early because of a thumb injury suffered against the Steelers on Dec. 13. As the Bengals take another swing at earning their first playoff victory since 1990, they likely won't have their usual starter under center. According to ESPN's Bob Holtzman, head coach Marvin Lewis is readying AJ McCarron to start:

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, also faces a key injury threatening to derail a juggernaut offense. Let's project how top healthy contributors will fare during the AFC postseason bout.

Date	Time (ET)	TV	Odds	O/U
Saturday, Jan. 9	8:15 p.m.	CBS	PIT -3	45.5

Odds and over/under line, updated as of Friday morning, are courtesy of Odds Shark. 

Stat Predictions

Pittsburgh Steelers

Player	Predicted Stats
QB Ben Roethlisberger	31-46, 365 YD, 3 TD, 2 INT
RB Fitzgerald Toussaint	11 RUSH, 29 YD
WR Antonio Brown	12 REC, 145 YD, 1 TD
WR Martavis Bryant	6 REC, 85 YD, 1 TD
WR Markus Wheaton	4 REC, 50 YD
TE Heath Miller	7 REC, 70 YD, 1 TD
LB Lawrence Timmons	9 TCK, 1 Sack
DE Cameron Heyward	3 TCK, 1.5 Sacks
S Mike Mitchell	4 TCK, 1 INT

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and Co. are going to move the ball through the air. In a dozen games, he averaged 328.2 passing yards. The Bengals finished the season as average pass-stoppers, ranking No. 15 with 245.2 yards relinquished per game.

The Steelers will also need to pass all evening. Running back DeAngelo Williams, who wonderfully replaced the injured Le'Veon Bell, left their Week 17 victory over the Cleveland Browns with a foot injury. According to USA Today's Lindsay Jones, the 32-year-old running back again missed practice on Thursday:

Per Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Coach Tomlin isn't holding his breath for Williams' weekend availability:

"

DeAngelo is being evaluated and getting treatment. I don’t know what his availability will be in terms of the game. Like we do in all instances, we will let practice participation be our guide in terms of what to expect from him. We will give him an opportunity to do that if he is capable. … In the meanwhile, I think it’s appropriate to build our plan around Toussaint and Jordan Todman, guys that have been here, guys that are healthy and guys that are willing and capable of being positive contributors to our efforts.

"

The Steelers don't need an excuse to pass. Roethlisberger averages 39.1 pass attempts per game, heaving 55 throws each in pivotal clashes against the Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos. While the Bengals yielded 4.3 yards per rush this season, Toussaint and Todman don't have the skills or the experience to exploit that weakness.

A one-dimensional approach, however, won't help Roethlisberger's ball-security issues. He has yielded two interceptions in three straight games, tallying 16 on the season. The Bengals' 21 picks, including three off Roethlisberger in their Week 8 victory, places No. 3 behind the Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs.

"We're capable of beating anyone, but we're also capable of losing to anyone, particularly if we lose the turnover battle," Tomlin told NFL.com's Jeffri Chadiha after Pittsburgh's stunning Week 16 loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

An air-heavy plan should signal another monster game from Antonio Brown, who collected an NFL-high 136 receptions during the season. When Roethlisberger played, the star wide receiver averaged 133.3 receiving yards per contest, surpassing 100 yards in eight of 12 contests. Yet two of those below triple-digit games came against Cincinnati:

Date	Score	REC	TAR	REC YD	TD
Nov. 1	10-16 L	6	11	47	1
Dec. 13	33-20 W	7	10	87	0

The first time around, a rusty Roethlisberger had just returned from a monthlong hiatus. In its most recent outing, Pittsburgh ran the ball 26 times, not including two kneeldowns. Excluding the four games started by Michael Vick and Landry Jones, Brown has received at least 10 targets a game. Just think how many throws will go his way without Bell or Williams roaming the backfield.

Cincinnati Bengals

Player	Predicted Stats
QB AJ McCarron	19-29, 205 YD, 1 TD, 1 INT
RB Jeremy Hill	13 RUSH, 45 YD, 1 TD
RB Giovani Bernard	6 RUSH, 35 YD, 3 REC, 25 YD
WR A.J. Green	6 REC, 80 YD, 1 TD
WR Marvin Jones	5 REC, 50 YD
TE Tyler Eifert	3 REC, 40 YD
LB Vincent Rey	8 TCK
DE Carlos Dunlap	3 TCK, 1.5 Sack
S Reggie Nelson	5 TCK, 1 PD, 1 INT

Given Dalton's unpromising status, the Bengals could have used a defense generous to opposing ground games. They instead get Pittsburgh, the league's No. 5 rushing defense, which relinquished 3.8 yards per rush.

They didn't push the stingy unit much in either regular-season collision, registering a combined 142 yards on 39 carries. Jeremy Hill, who followed an encouraging rookie campaign by averaging 3.6 yards a run, mustered 16 yards in the Bengals' latest loss to their division foes.

Despite receiving one more handoff through his sophomore season, the 23-year-old running back dropped 330 rushing yards from his final tally:

Year	RUSH	RUSH YD	YPC	TD
2014	222	1,124	5.1	9
2015	223	794	3.6	11

This would be a great time to allocate more reps to Giovani Bernard, who accrued 4.7 yards per rush while offering superior blocking and pass-catching skills from the backfield. Head coach Marvin Lewis, however, isn't likely to change now. Bernard averaged 12.7 touches per game to Hill's 14.9, and the disparity only widened down the closing stretch.

Don Wright/Associated Press

Pittsburgh's No. 21 defense feeds off big plays, registering 48 sacks and 30 takeaways this season. Such a high-risk, high-reward formula will occasionally backfire, apparent by the Steelers' failures against the New England Patriots and Seahawks this season. Running into the Patriots or the cautious Kansas City Chiefs would prove problematic, but neither matchup could occur until the AFC Championship Game.

This Saturday, Pittsburgh faces a rookie quarterback with 119 passes under his belt. McCarron has held his own, issuing a 97.1 quarterback rating with 7.18 yards per pass attempt, six touchdowns and two picks. While he amassed 280 yards and two scores when pressed into duty against Pittsburgh, he also tossed two picks and got sacked three times.

As highlighted by the Washington Post's Neil Greenberg, the neophyte has struggled mightily under pressure during his first taste of NFL action:

"

McCarron has made only three NFL starts, but his performance under pressure is already suspect, and could cause the Bengals major problems on Saturday. When not facing a pass rush this season, McCarron’s passer rating is 117.1. That drops to 57.6 under pressure, the same downgrade we would see going from Russell Wilson to a worse version of today’s Jimmy Clausen. For comparison, Dalton’s passer rating went from 110.3 to 92.9 under pressure.

"

After years of mocking Dalton's postseason troubles, everyone is going to realize how much the Bengals missed him this time around.