NFL Week Three: Studs, Duds, and Fantasy Freaks

The first two weeks of football season can make or break a fantasy owner. Some owners are 2-0, riding high, and nothing can stop them. Others are 1-1, which is respectable, but there's work to be done. Some get off to an 0-2 start and suddenly they find themselves in the same boat as the Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, and St. Louis Rams. Those 1-1 and 0-2 guys often decide to blow up their teams. Whoever was taken in the first or second round is traded for someone off to a fast start. It's now or never, time to hit the panic button and hope for the best, right? Wrong. Take my advice, read on, and fantasy lovers of all records will improve their squads.

Studs for Week Three

Drew Brees vs. Buffalo- Brees has been on an absolute tear to start the season, and is unquestionably the best fantasy QB in football. He goes up against the up-and-down Bills this week, who allowed Byron Leftwich and the lowly Bucs to go for 296 passing yards and three touchdowns. Expect over 300 passing yards for Brees to go with three to four passing TDs. On the other side of the matchup...

Fred Jackson vs. New Orleans- This is Jackson's last game as a starter before Marshawn Lynch returns from suspension, and against the Saints porous run D, look for him to have a huge stat-line. Fred has already had two monster games, so there's no reason to think he will stop here. Plus, you've got to figure he wants to give the Bills one last glimpse of what he's capable of accomplishing as the feature back. I foresee 120 yards and two touchdowns...

Clinton Portis vs. Detroit- Portis is off to an uncharacteristically bad start thus far, but that will end against the Lions. Washington has had tons of trouble finding the end zone, so Clinton's usual high fantasy numbers have been down. If he can't break out against the Lions, he never will. Portis should go for 150+ yards and two scores.

Matt Forte vs. Seattle- One of last year's fantasy MVPs, Matt Forte has been held in check going into week three. He played against the best defense in football last week (Pittsburgh), so it's not time to abandon ship. Seattle is missing QB Matt Hasselbeck, which means the Seahawks defense will probably be on the field more than usual since they lack their leader on offense. Forte can easily wear Seattle down. My crystal ball says 100 yards rushing, a rushing TD, and a receiving TD.

Duds

Cedric Benson vs. Pittsburgh- If Benson goes crazy against the Steelers, I will be ready to crown him fantasy MVP. I'd put the chances of that happening at zero, though. Benson has played well, and is even ranked 13th in Yahoo! fantasy football leagues. He's probably on pace for a better season than anyone could have imagined, but he won't score a touchdown in week three.

Willis McGahee vs. Cleveland- Similarly to Benson, McGahee is off to a mind-numbing start (ranked fifth in Yahoo! fantasy football leagues). I don't care if he's playing the Cleveland Browns this week, he won't keep it up. Baltimore has been swapping Willis with Ray Rice, and McGahee just happens to have gotten the bulk of the touchdowns. Ray Rice still seems like the RB with the greater upside, and I'd trust him to have a better game than McGahee this time around.

Chris Johnson vs. New York Jets- This one is definitely dicey. A popular upset pick right now is Tennessee over the Jets, and for good reason. With a loss, the Titans fall to 0-3, and would have a pretty steep mountain to climb if they wanted to eventually get back into Wild Card contention. This all points to another gigantic performance for Chris Johnson, who single-handily won many fantasy matchups last week. Problem is, the Jets have been absolutely stellar on defense, and their confidence is at an all-time high. The Titans already have a pretty terrible passing game, and with all-pro corner Darrelle Revis manning the Jets secondary, I doubt Jeff Fisher will try anything fancy. That means New York can focus on stopping the Titans running game, and Chris Johnson could be in store for a repeat of his week one stats (57 yards, no TDs). 

Kevin Smith vs. Washington- The Skins run defense has been nothing short of stellar, so anyone that owns Kevin Smith shouldn't have high expectations for him. In fact, I'd bench him ASAP if you have a solid replacement. Calvin Johnson will probably have a great game, but nothing will develop on the ground. 

There's a pot of gold in the horizon...

Don't give up on these guys yet. They have disappointed, but keep them in your lineup for week three and reap the rewards.

• Brandon Marshall- He is finally getting up to speed with the offense. He's also too talented to be held down forever.
• Santana Moss- As you can see, anyone facing the Lions usually plays pretty darn well. Moss will pick it up.
• Tom Brady- He's Tom Brady. A man amongst boys. Don't give up on him after a game against an incredibly tough D (New York Jets).
• Michael Turner- Quiet start, and he might not break out of his slump against New England. It would be foolish to bench Turner, however. He was a top three running back last year, and there's no reason to think he can't do that again in 2009.
• Dwayne Bowe- Bowe has caught two touchdowns in two games, but his yardage is pretty awful (48 ypg). With Cassell looking much healthier than he did in week two, Bowe should get back on track.

Drop Him like T.O. Drops Passes

Sometimes, you need to disassociate yourself from a fantasy player. A few of these guys aren't worth dropping yet, but they certainly deserve a benching until further notice.

• LaDainian Tomlinson- He's banged up, and I said in my AFC preview that he was probably close to done. Don't trust him for the next few weeks, at least. 
• LenDale White- Maybe those extra hamburgers and shots of tequila were making White a touchdown vulture. Whatever the reason, he's been terrible. Bench him this week, and drop him by week five if he hasn't made a dent in your fantasy score.
• Michael Crabtree- Do I really need to explain this one?
• Joseph Addai- Addai's production has continuously gone down the gutter, and he's been injury prone as of the last few years. Rookie backup Donald Brown could start gaining on him in the carries department.