UFC 195 Lawler vs. Condit Predictions: Main Card Staff Picks
The UFC is getting 2016 off on the right foot. The first event of the year gives us a welterweight championship fight worthy of all of our attention.
Robbie Lawler, the undisputed welterweight champion, will defend against No. 4-ranked Carlos Condit. It's a matchup that screams violence. Two aggressive fighters who love to throw down will mix it up for the gold and our enjoyment.
And the co-main event looks to be a heavyweight title eliminator. No. 2-ranked contender Andrei Arlovski and No. 3-ranked Stipe Miocic are slated to throw their lunch-box-sized fists at one another in an attempt to lay claim as the next rightful challenger.
The rest of the main card looks like plenty of fun as well, and the Bleacher Report staff is excited to start a new season of fight picks.
Craig Amos, Scott Harris, Sydnie Jones, Nathan McCarter and Steven Rondina are here to give you our thoughts on who walks out of UFC 195 as victors.
2015 Results
1 of 6
It was Steven Rondina who came out on top in 2015. However, like the Montreal Expos in the 1994 MLB season, the title comes with an asterisk as it was a truncated campaign. And the rest of the staff will try their best to make sure he doesn't have a repeat performance.
2015 Results
- Steven Rondina (47-17)
- Scott Harris (44-20)
- Craig Amos (43-21)
- Jonathan Snowden (36-28)
- Nathan McCarter (32-32)
Mr. Snowden has bowed out graciously for 2016 and in steps Sydnie Jones to complete the circle.
Let's get 2016 underway.
Abel Trujillo vs. Tony Sims
2 of 6
Craig Amos
Trujillo is a tough guy to get a read on. Looks great and mediocre in turns. But the more experience he compiles, the better his prospects of ironing out some consistency. He should take out Sims before the second bell.
Trujillo, TKO, Round 2
Scott Harris
Trujillo doesn't do boring fights. Sims is a little more nuanced in his approach than Trujillo. I think he'll weather the adrenaline storm and tire out the Blackzilian.
Sims, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
I want Sims to win, but we haven't seen enough from him to be confident he can stop someone with Trujillo's experience. Trujillo's recent losses have come at the hands of some pretty high-level fighters; this will be Sims' third fight in the Octagon. Sims went 1-1 in his first two, against relatively untested competition. This matchup is a tough one for him.
Trujillo, TKO, Round 2
Nathan McCarter
This is a good fight to begin one of the most violent cards, on paper, in recent memory. And when violence is involved, straight up I'm inclined to lean toward Trujillo.
He's always capable of being countered, but he'll put Sims to sleep prior to that happening.
Trujillo, TKO, Round 1
Steven Rondina
Ladies and gentlemen, your champion, the people's champion (also the on-paper, unquestioned, undisputed champion) is here to to defend his throne. Trujillo isn't a great fighter, or even a particularly good one, but Sims doesn't have the tools to really exploit his flaws. Unless Trujillo punches himself out in 90 seconds (which is a possibility), look for Trujillo to take this early.
Trujillo, TKO, Round 1
Diego Brandao vs. Brian Ortega
3 of 6
Craig Amos
After back-to-back wins, could Brandao finally be turning all that potential into results? It's a question we've asked before. Ortega embodies a considerable challenge for the former The Ultimate Fighter winner. The guess here is that Brandao falls short.
Ortega, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Ortega's been a favorite of mine since his RFA days, where he waged an under-the-radar Fight of the Year candidate with Keoni Koch. Like Brandao, Ortega is aggressive, but Ortega is craftier as well. Expect some fun exchanges and scrambles, with Ortega staying just out of major trouble while besting Brandao with volume.
Ortega, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
Ortega's unbeaten streak is impressive, but he hasn't faced an opponent as experienced as Brandao, who has plenty of wins via knockout and several by submission. I don't think Ortega can handle that level of competition yet.
Brandao, TKO, Round 1
Nathan McCarter
Ortega is one of those fighters we haven't seen a lot of in recent times, thus he falls to the back of our consciousness. Meanwhile, Brandao has looked solid since Conor McGregor laid him down.
When Brandao fights within himself, he is pretty good, and that McGregor fight taught him a lot. I like him to continue his upward trend with another first-round finish.
Brandao, TKO, Round 1
Steven Rondina
There's a lot to love about Brandao, but his psyche will likely keep him out of the featherweight Top 10. That said, it's too early in Brian Ortega's career to really expect him to be able to beat somebody like Brandao.
Brandao, submission, Round 2
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Albert Tumenov vs. Lorenz Larkin
4 of 6
Craig Amos
Tumenov has quietly put together a string of four impressive victories since losing in his UFC debut. Larkin is a dangerous striker, but he will be no bar to a fifth consecutive win for the Russian.
Tumenov, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
This is a fight fan's fight. Of course, so is Lawler-Condit, so this one is a bit below the radar. Don't let it sink below your radar. Tumenov is part of the new guard of Russian dynamos, and his kickboxing will carry the day in what should be an outstanding stand-up fight.
Tumenov, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
While both have put on impressive performances recently, Tumenov's aggression and drive to finish fast will pay off in this fight. Larkin is no slouch in that regard, but Tumenov's game looks tighter.
Tumenov, TKO, Round 2
Nathan McCarter
This is a very difficult fight to predict, and it has larger implications on the 170-pound division than a lot of fans know.
And it may be harder to predict than the main event. I'll take Larkin. A bit more big-fight expertise ends up being the difference. He'll take the final round to edge Tumenov on the scorecards in a close, competitive fight.
Larkin, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
Flip a coin on this one! I'm leaning toward Tumenov, though, simply because we've seen more than a couple of cracks in Larkin's game before.
Tumenov, TKO, Round 1
Stipe Miocic vs. Andrei Arlovski
5 of 6
Craig Amos
Could Arlovski be pulling a Robbie Lawler in his return to the Octagon? If he beats Miocic, then I'll believe it. But not before.
Miocic, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Miocic is more of careful boxer than Arlovski, and I think he'll be able to get work done in the clinch or off a takedown. But I'm not betting against Arlovski anymore. No sir. The Belarusian is just too hot right now. He'll find a home for something out of the blue. Flash knockout. Sound the upset alarms.
Arlovski, TKO, Round 1
Sydnie Jones
I think Arlovski's renaissance is going to backslide some here in the face of Miocic's pressure.
Miocic, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
It's been fun to see Arlovski move back up the heavyweight ladder, but that ride stops at 195.
Miocic is going to hit him on the button and turn off the lights. I'm not sure if Miocic is a legitimate title threat at this point, but he is a top-five heavyweight who hits hard. That's rarely a good matchup for Arlovski.
Miocic, TKO, Round 1
Steven Rondina
Arlovski's Cinderella run ends here. Miocic has the boxing to hang with the former champ and the wrestling to keep him from getting comfortable. Unless Miocic gets clipped early, I'm expecting him to get the better of Arlovski along the cage en route to a clear, albeit boring, decision win.
Miocic, unanimous decision
Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit
6 of 6
Craig Amos
Lawler has been so good it's difficult to pick against him, but I really like Condit in this matchup. He can wing leather with Lawler, but he has also shown the capacity for implementing more cerebral tactics. He also carries a significant edge on the mat—should the fight end up there.
Condit, submission, Round 2
Scott Harris
This will be an amazing fight, and it will not hit the ground. Lawler's right and left hook and jab are going to come to bear, as they always do. Condit will respond with those razor-sharp punch-kick combinations. You know what? I think Condit will do a little more and just enough to beat the man in another bloodbath. And new.
Condit, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
Is Jackson-Wink about to produce another champion? Condit is versatile, but I don't think he'll be able to stop Lawler with strikes or take him down very easily. Given Condit's durability, Lawler will take a decision win.
Lawler, split decision
Nathan McCarter
This should be a thrilling fight, but I think everyone should expect Condit to put together a game plan that avoids wild exchanges. And that will be the difference. Coaching and game plan.
Whatever masterful plan Greg Jackson and Mike Winkeljohn come up with will result in Condit taking this fight on the scorecards. The two tough vets will be hard to finish, and tactics win out over five rounds. And new.
Condit, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
This is tough, because both men have a style that complements the other's strengths. I feel like this will be a violent stalemate, with the champ getting the nod and a number of fans grumping about it after.
Lawler, split decision
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
