NFL Week 17 Picks: Odds, Over-Under Predictions for Every Game

It's Week 17 in the NFL, and the playoff field is nearly set. Ten teams have already clinched playoff spots no matter what happens during the final slate of games. Two clingers-on remain, both in the AFC.

Pittsburgh is on the outside looking in after a shock loss to Baltimore in Week 16. They need a road win over Cleveland and some help in order to play extra football.

Indianapolis can still technically pip Houston for the AFC South title, but the Colts need several other results to go their way. You're more likely to see someone win the Indy 500 driving in reverse than a Colts playoff run in 2016.

The remaining drama will stem from a few teams fighting for position within their respective conferences. Both No. 1 seeds are still up for grabs, as are the AFC West and NFC North titles.

There is no Thursday or Monday night football to bookend your NFL viewing this week. It all comes down to one final Sunday of regular-season action.

Here are the Week 17 spreads, over-under lines and final-score predictions for each contest. Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, December 31 at 7 a.m. ET. For reference, the NFL playoff picture heading into Week 17 can be found here.

Sunday, January 3
Time (ET)	Away	Home	Over-Under	Prediction
1 p.m.	New Orleans	Atlanta (-4)	53	ATL 26-24 NO
1 p.m.	New York Jets (-3)	Buffalo	43	NYJ 23-21 BUF
1 p.m.	Detroit (even)	Chicago (even)	45.5	DET 28-21 CHI
1 p.m.	Baltimore	Cincinnati (-10)	41.5	CIN 23-14 BAL
1 p.m.	Pittsburgh (-11.5)	Cleveland	47	PIT 31-17 CLE
1 p.m.	Washington	Dallas (-3.5)	39.5	WAS 20-17 DAL
1 p.m.	Jacksonville	Houston (-7)	45.5	HOU 27-21 JAX
1 p.m.	Tennessee	Indianapolis	N/A	IND 20-13 TEN
1 p.m.	New England (-11.5)	Miami	47	NE 34-21 MIA
1 p.m.	Philadelphia	New York Giants (-3.5)	51.5	NYG 28-20 PHI
4:25 p.m.	Tampa Bay	Carolina (-11.5)	46	CAR 28-19 TB
4:25 p.m.	Oakland	Kansas City (-7.5)	43.5	KC 20-10 OAK
4:25 p.m.	Seattle	Arizona (-7)	46.5	AZ 24-21 SEA
4:25 p.m.	San Diego	Denver (-10)	41	DEN 27-24 SD
4:25 p.m.	St. Louis (-3)	San Francisco	37	STL 27-20 SF
8:30 p.m.	Minnesota	Green Bay (-3)	45.5	MIN 28-24 GB

NFC North Showdown: Minnesota Vikings (10-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (10-5)

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

There is no need to create a flowchart to decipher which team wins the NFC North title. Minnesota squares off against Green Bay at Lambeau Field in Week 17, with a division crown and a home game in the wild-card round on the line.

The Packers are coming off a resounding 38-8 loss to Arizona, a game in which the great Aaron Rodgers managed 151 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception. The last month and a half or so has been an unusually slow stretch for Rodgers.

After starting the season looking like he might never throw another pick in his career, Rodgers has thrown an uncharacteristic four interceptions in his last five outings. He hasn't topped the 300-yard mark since Week 10. 

Rodgers of course isn't necessarily to blame for the relatively poor numbers. He's been working with a thin receiving corps all year, the offensive line is banged up—Arizona sacked Rodgers eight times in Week 16—and running backs Eddie Lacy and James Starks run hot and cold.

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Despite the turndown, the Packers are 4-2 in their last six games. Rodgers doesn't mind the pedestrian numbers so long as he can accomplish team goals.

“I’m OK with that,” he said, per Packers.com's Mike Spofford. “It’s definitely been a different year for me, but I’m proud of the way we’ve responded through some adversity.”

The Packers did beat Minnesota 30-13 earlier this season, but even in that game Rodgers' stats were hardly impressive (212 yards, two touchdowns). The Vikings bring in a tough, healthy defense to Week 17. The likes of safety Harrison Smith and linebacker Anthony Barr returned to the field in Week 16 to power the Vikings to a 49-17 blowout of the New York Giants. 

Smith did well to take an errant Eli Manning pass to the house for a pick-six, per NFL Now: 

Turnovers could very well kill Green Bay in this game, as Minnesota comes into it with a good chance of controlling the clock behind a strong ground game. Adrian Peterson and Jerick McKinnon combined for 193 rushing yards and three touchdowns against the Giants. Over the last three weeks, the Packers have allowed 137.3 rushing yards per game.

Some of the bite is gone from Green Bay's defense. Bleacher Report analyst Chris Simms takes a look at what's been eating linebacker Clay Matthews this season: 

Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has elevated his play as of late and hasn't thrown a pick in three weeks. As SportsCenter notes, the Vikings get along just fine with his mundane passing numbers: 

It's tough to pick against Rodgers in a game like this. He has the experience, the skills, the nerve, everything. However, Minnesota's rushing attack and a competent Bridgewater will keep the Packers off the field for long stretches, making it difficult for Green Bay to get into the flow of the game.

No need to finesse this one, Mike Zimmer. Feed Peterson—and occasionally McKinnon, who didn't get a carry the last time these two teams met—the rock and let the rest take care of itself.

Control Your Destiny: New York Jets (10-5) vs. Buffalo Bills (7-8)

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

If there were some sort of holiday-season MVP award in the NFL, you would find it difficult to argue against giving it to Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. The 33-year-old quarterback has enjoyed a fine season overall but has really elevated his play down the stretch.

Date, Team	Result	CMP/ATT	YDS	CMP %	TD	INT	RSH YDS	QBR
November 29, Miami	W 38-20	22/37	277	59.5	4	0	21	75.5
December 6, New York Giants	W 23-20 (OT)	36/50	390	72.0	2	0	22	77.8
December 13, Tennessee	W 30-8	21/36	263	58.3	3	0	23	63.1
December 19, Dallas	W 19-16	26/39	299	66.7	1	1	13	56.3
December 27, New England	W 26-20	26/41	296	63.4	3	0	13	64.8

As a result, the Jets are in control of their playoff destiny, as a win (or tie) against Buffalo guarantees them a spot in the postseason. The Jets can still make the playoffs with a Pittsburgh loss and could also win the fifth seed in a few other scenarios, but both teams play at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. Sure, some scoreboard-watching might go on, but the team has to focus on the obstacle at hand. 

That obstacle is pesky AFC East rival Buffalo, who beat the Jets 22-17 in Week 10 (in a game that was difficult to watch for some). It was a big win for head coach Rex Ryan, who did well to get his team psyched up for the contest against his former employer. It appears his team is carrying the ethos into Week 17. According to the New York Times' Ben Shpigel, running back Boobie Dixon is calling this game the "Bills' Super Bowl."

“To send them home packing,” Dixon said Sunday, per Shpigel, “that would be great."

Elsa/Getty Images

The Bills are certainly equipped to play spoiler. Tyrod Taylor has proven himself a fine NFL QB, and his connection with wide receiver Sammy Watkins has grown stronger as the season's progressed. LeSean McCoy played a vital role in the Bills' win over the Jets, but he's nursing an MCL injury, and Bills head coach Rex Ryan said it "probably doesn't look real good" for Sunday's tilt, per ESPN.com's Mike Rodak.

Karlos Williams and Mike Gillislee should be able to at least partially make up for McCoy's absence, but the Jets do boast the stingiest rushing defense in the league at 81.5 yards per game. They've also allowed just two rushing touchdowns all season. If Buffalo is going to pull off the upset, Taylor is likely going to have to do it with his arm. 

As good as the fourth-year pro has been this season, he could find it difficult to win a QB duel if his team's secondary isn't healthy. Per WGR 550's Sal Capaccio, Bills rookie cornerback Ronald Darby might not be available for the game:

Buffalo's other standout corner, Stephon Gilmore, was placed on injured reserve in mid-December. Being forced to play a makeshift secondary against Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker sounds like a fine way to lose a football game.

Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman detailed how Marshall's physical traits and growth as a teammate have contributed to the team's success this year: 

"

He's more physically powerful than the current top guys, like Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones, and doesn't possess the naked speed those players do. But even as the NFL's transitioned to guys with that skill set, he's still just as effective.

One of the more interesting parts of Marshall's maturity is how, with the Jets, he's become the consummate locker room leader. It wasn't that way for Marshall in other places, particularly in his last stop with the Bears. Quite frankly, he was a jerk.

Last week, before playing New England, it was Marshall who told teammates not to celebrate like they won the Super Bowl when they beat the Patriots. Jets players did, and Marshall was pseudo-annoyed. That's good leadership. It's a different Marshall than the one who played with the Bears last season.

"

The Bills will no doubt put up a vicious fight, perhaps even making it close enough to beat the three-point spread. Ryan is sure to come into this game with plenty of insights and psychological tricks at the ready. But this is Fitzpatrick's year, and the Jets will get the win, clinch their wild-card spot and let the rest of the AFC chips fall where they may.

The Hunt for the First-Round Bye: Baltimore Ravens (5-10) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Just when it looked like the Cincinnati Bengals might be in the hunt for the AFC's top seed, a 20-17 overtime loss in Week 16 to Denver now leaves them in the No. 3 spot, with only a chance at No. 2 still possible.

Aside from the Bengals' recent postseason fiascoes and head coach Marvin Lewis' 0-6 record in the playoffs, the Bengals would like a week off for quarterback Andy Dalton to recover from a thumb injury. According to the NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, he might not be ready for the wild-card round of the playoffs: 

According to Cincinnati.com's Paul Dehner Jr., the Bengals aren't in control of their seeding destiny, but they can put pressure on the Broncos thanks to the scheduling: 

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A win by the Bengals in the 1 p.m. slot on Sunday would place all pressure on Denver, which starts at 4:25 p.m., to hold off the Chargers or else slip back possibly to be a wild-card team. San Diego lost, 17-3, on Dec. 6 against the Broncos in California.

Recent trends suggest the odds stack against the Bengals. The last three seasons in the final week of the year, playoff teams facing non-playoff teams are 10-2. The Broncos were part of that group each season and won each game by at least 20 points.

"

The Bengals have to bounce back from blowing a 14-0 first-half lead and beat the AFC North-rival Baltimore Ravens, who are coming off a 20-17 upset win over Pittsburgh. Ravens quarterback Ryan Mallett took advantage of a shaky Steelers secondary, throwing for 274 yards and a touchdown. His solid play opened up the running game for rookie Buck Allen, who tallied 112 all-purpose yards and one rushing score. 

Nick Wass/Associated Press

The Ravens defense was nothing short of heroic in stifling a red-hot Steelers attack. Ben Roethlisberger tossed two interceptions, while wide receiver Martavis Bryant managed just one catch for six yards. The 17 points scored by Pittsburgh broke a streak of six consecutive games of at least 30 points scored.

McCarron must try do what Roethlisberger couldn't and beat the Ravens. He has been serviceable in his time as a starter, throwing four touchdowns and two picks in the last three weeks. Per Rapoport, his strained left wrist shouldn't be a problem for this game:

McCarron might have picked up an injury, but the return of a star player could make up for it. According to ESPN.com's Coley Harvey, tight end Tyler Eifert is out of the concussion protocol and says he is "ready to play" in Sunday's game.

Eifert's presence would go a long way toward opening up the passing game. It might force the Ravens linebackers and safeties to watch Eifert underneath—not to mention Giovani Bernard in the flat—allowing A.J. Green and Marvin Jones more room to work over the top. He's also an absolute menace in the red zone with 12 touchdowns on the year.

Gary Landers/Associated Press

Having him on the field would make play-calling much easier for offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, who also needs to find a way to get Bernard and Jeremy Hill going in the run game.

As much as the AFC North teams love making life difficult for each other, the Ravens aren't going to play super-spoiler two weeks in a row. Cincinnati's defense will suffocate Baltimore's blighted offense. Defensive linemen Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins have been on a tear as of late, the former as a pass-rusher and the latter as a one-man wrecking crew in the middle of the line.

Mallett and Allen won't be able to replicate the success they had against the Steelers, and the Bengals will do just fine after forcing a couple of turnovers and cementing the win.

Alas, Denver will take care of business against the M.A.S.H. unit that is the San Diego Chargers, forcing the Bengals to possibly play an AFC Wild Card Game, likely with McCarron, not Dalton, at the helm.