Chuck Pagano's Expiring Contract Makes Things Easy for the Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts' disappointing season has almost come to a close. 

While the team's playoff chances may not technically be dead, the team's once promising 2015 campaign has been dead in the water since Week 1, and nothing has changed since then. Even if the team manages to beat the near-impossible odds in Week 17 to win the AFC South, any progression in the playoffs seems well out of reach. 

The season has been an utter failure, based on the offseason hype, and head coach Chuck Pagano has taken much of the blame. 

Ironically, Pagano was offered a one-year extension last offseason, Diana Russini of ESPN reported back in March.

Given all of the season's unexpected turmoil, it seems that Pagano's future in Indianapolis is over, or in serious doubt at the very least. 

With that in mind, media in Indianapolis asked Pagano if he regretted not taking the one-year extension, and the coach was resolute in his thinking, per Zak Keefer of the Indy Star:

"

“Nope.”

Pagano was asked if he’s had any conversations with team owner Jim Irsay — the man who will decide his fate in the coming weeks — about his future.

“Nope.”

Much like he has been throughout the past month, Pagano sounded like a man at peace with whatever happens.

"

Pagano has been steadfast about that peace all season, but the Colts may not have quite the same peace about their future as a franchise. The case against Pagano is convoluted and messy, understandable given his place both in the franchise and community over the last three years. 

It all started with an infectious personality. Media and local fans bought into Pagano's outgoing, cliche-filled press conferences from the very beginning, and the coach's inspirational recovery from leukemia sent things to a whole new level late in 2012. Pagano's strength as a coach, and as a person, is his genuine personality and perseverance, and it was on full display in his early time in Indianapolis. 

With one week to go before his fourth year is completed, Pagano has a 40-23 record, with an additional 3-3 playoff record. Add in a trip to the AFC Championship, two division titles and a total rebuild in one offseason and you get a half-decent stack of resume material, especially for a first-time coach. 

If you told someone at the beginning of the season that the Colts would go 8-8 (still in play) and be in the playoff hunt despite losing Andrew Luck for nine games, they probably would have been rather impressed. The Colts have a reputation of being carried by Luck, and the fact that they've gone 5-3 without Luck, no matter who they've played, is remarkable. 

On the surface, it seems that Pagano has a pretty good case for sticking around in Indianapolis. 

But the Colts' issues this season were not one-time deals, and ultimately the inability to get the most out of Luck was a fatal flaw for this coaching staff. 

Poor in-game coaching, a lack of cohesive game plans to start games, being undisciplined, a lack of development in young players outside of T.Y. Hilton and Andrew Luck, too many blowouts and other embarrassing moments will stick in owner Jim Irsay's mind, particularly the way a team as hyped as the 2015 Colts (a Super Bowl contender for many over the offseason) could go 2-5 with Luck healthy this season. 

But what about Ryan Grigson, the Colts general manager who has been linked with Pagano since being hired together back in 2012? Doesn't he share part of the blame as well? 

Certainly, but there are much different circumstances at play for Grigson. 

The roster may have flaws, but it's not so bad that the team should have the most losses of 29 points or more over the last four years. Oh, and the fact that the Colts could go 5-3 with Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback? That's a point for Grigson as well, hinting at a roster that was not completely dependent on Luck. 

The fact that Luck's development has been inconsistent at best, despite Grigson investing in plenty of offensive weapons, hurts Pagano and his staff as well. It will be hard for Irsay to blame Grigson and the offensive line for that particular issue when he sees young quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Cam Newton flourishing behind much worse pass-protecting fronts. 

But here's the kicker: Ryan Grigson is not on the final year of his contract. Grigson has one more year left, while Pagano's contract expires at the end of this season, thanks to him refusing that one-year extension in March. 

That makes Jim Irsay's decision easy. 

If all Irsay wanted to do was offer Pagano a one-year extension after making the AFC Championship game last season, what could possibly be on the table after this season's debacle? 

The Colts don't have to fire Chuck Pagano. 

They just don't have to bring him back. 

And unless Pagano has one more miracle left in him, they won't.