College Football BestBets: Week Four Betting Picks

After a week off, my college football weekly betting picks will return for week four.

Last week, USC and BYU were shocked by two completely overlooked lower level teams. Oregon pulled off a huge win over Utah, Miami launched themselves into the national picture with a win over Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech won a thriller versus Nebraska.

If you haven't read any of my earlier articles, here's the rundown on the format. Each week I choose about nine games (that's the number this week, at least) that I think are the best picks against the spread out of all the games that week.

Each game receives a score of 10 to 200, indicating my confidence, with the higher the better. In week one, I finished at +405 for points won, and the week two total was +455. Each week also has a specially-picked game known as the "Weekly BestBet," which is almost always worth 200 points.

So, let's get on with the picks.

It is an underdog-friendly week, with six of the nine picks going for a team not favored. I'll start with the lowest value first, and here we go.

10 Points

New Mexico State (+9.5) @ New Mexico

Put simply, both teams are horrible. Put even simpler, I really don't know anything about either one. But I do know that State only beat Prairie View A&M by three points last week, and that's enough to scare me. Really scare me.

Pick: New Mexico (-9.5)

25 Points

Ole Miss (-3) @ South Carolina

Ole Miss is a team that has talent on every side of the ball. I love the passing game here with Jevan Sneed, and I have confidence with the defense, too.

On the other hand, South Carolina has an inconsistent offense and an untested defense. About the only thing they have going for them here is home-field advantage, and that's not going to save the game. Ole Miss easily covers.

Pick: Ole Miss (-3)

50 Points

Middle Tennessee (-7.5) @ North Texas

I'm beginning to get really impressed with Middle Tennessee. First, they easily dealt with Memphis a week before last, who was a bowl team last year. Then, last week, they pulled off a big upset of Maryland for the second year in a row.

Their opponent this week, North Texas, is the worst team in the second-worst conference, and are probably one of the five worst teams in the nation.

Goodbye, Mean Green. I have a feeling that's what you might be feeling about yourselves after this one: mean and definitely green.

Pick: Middle Tennessee (-7.5)

75 Points

TCU (+3) @ Clemson

The Horned Toads are a team that could really sneak up on people, and seem likely to have a good chance at the BCS-Buster role of 2009. But the game is at Death Valley, and the Tigers are hoping to become a dark horse this year, too!

However, I've got to stick with my major gut instinct, which is TCU. They have arguably the best defense in the country, and the offense is on the rise, too. After a big upset here, watch for Texas Christian to make a run into the top-ten by the end of October!

Pick: TCU (+3)

100 Points

Army (+10) @ Iowa State

Army is actually quite an up-and-coming team, in my opinion. Still, that doesn't mean they're good. But I'm quite certain that the Black Knights are 10 points better than the worst team in football.

Watch for Army to pick up a nice win here and possibly get to maybe five wins this season. Anyhow, they easily win with the extra points.

Pick: Army (+10)

100 Points

Miami (-2.5) @ Virginia Tech

This is a complete rip-off, no doubt about it. Virginia Tech has homefield advantage, much more big game experience, and is coming off a win at least as big as Miami's.

Sure, Jacory Harris will put up a fight, and this should be very interesting, but I really think that Tech can put up a better performance than this spread projects.

Should still be a really good game to watch, though...I'll call Hokies 24, Hurricanes 20.

Pick: Virginia Tech (+2.5)

150 Points

Minnesota (+2.5) @ Northwestern

Minnesota has had an interesting season so far. First, the overtime win over Syracuse and Greg Paulus, then a lost opportunity to upset Cal last week. But now, they start conference play.

First up is Northwestern, who is coming off a nine-win season, but has really struggled so far.

I mean, really struggled.

First, they had to score twice in the latter stages of the fourth quarter to recover for a win against Eastern Michigan, and then they suffered a devastating loss to Syracuse last week, as well.

I think that the Wildcats might have a very tough year after their best season in recent history in 2008. Minnesota has a chance to cruise to a double-digit win here in Chicago.

Pick: Minnesota (+2.5)

150 Points

Oregon State (+2) @ Arizona

Oregon State really does deserve to be in the top 25, and I have no doubt they will eventually end up there. However, this could be a little test for the Beaver's hopes.

This game is actually a lot like the previous one. It features a decent team coming off a tough loss heading on the road to play a conference team that had a break out 2008 year. And I have just as much confidence that Oregon State will win decently as I do with Minnesota.

The Beaver's defense will respond from a bad week three, and Arizona will be held to no more than one touchdown as State takes it, 23-13.

Pick: Oregon State (+2)

Weekly BestBet, 200 Points

Pittsburgh (Even) @ North Carolina State

I can't believe Vegas would let a game this lopsided get to a [rare] even point spread, but I'm going to take every bit of advantage I can from it to secure an easy 200 points.

N.C. State has been pretty depressing so far, after losing a "mind-numbingly boring game" to South Carolina on national television and following it up by giving up three touchdowns to Murray State and Gardner-Webb.

On the other hand, Pitt is (as I've said before) the most underrated team in the nation right now. They have a balanced roster all across the page, and a one-loss season would probably end up with a BCS bid and a real eye-opening season. This is where it all starts, when they head into Raleigh and blow out the Wolfpack, 31-13.

Pick of the Week: Pitt (Even)

Note: These predictions and their corresponding point evaluations are based on my opinion alone. They are not required bets by any means, but on the other side, I am not responsible for any cash losses suffered by suggested bets that did not pay off. However, I am sincerely sorry for any incorrect suggested bets that I posted on this article.

However, please feel free to comment and tell us your opinions on our weekly picks!