Week 16 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Top 10 Players, Stat Projections for Every Position

You did it.

You reached the championship.

You are one win away from an offseason of glory and gloating.

You can't screw this up.

Let me help. I'll break down my top-10 rankings at each position and offer you start 'em, sit 'em advice for those questionable players you can't quite decide on this week. Let's get you that title, shall we?

Matt Camp's Fantasy Advice

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projected Points
1	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT	BAL	25
2	Cam Newton, CAR	ATL	23
3	Blake Bortles, JAC	NO	22
4	Carson Palmer, ARI	GB	21
5	Russell Wilson, SEA	STL	20
6	Tom Brady, NE	NYJ	19
7	Aaron Rodgers, GB	ARI	19
8	Jameis Winston, TB	CHI	18
9	Eli Manning, NYG	MIN	17
10	Matt Stafford, DET	SF	16

Start 'Em: Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

Don Juan Moore/Getty Images

For the second straight week, Blake Bortles gets highlighted in the "start 'em" section for quarterbacks. There are so many reasons to trust him yet again. Let's list them:

1. In standard leagues, Bortles has notched 22 or more fantasy points in four straight weeks.  
2. In Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas, he has incredibly reliable weapons in the passing game.
3. The New Orleans Saints are giving up an NFL-worst 23.2 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks per week.
4. Bortles has actually posted better fantasy numbers on the road this year. In six road games this season, he's yet to score fewer than 15 fantasy points. 

Bortles has established himself as a reliable QB1 this season. The future is very exciting for Bortles, at least in fantasy circles.

Sit 'Em: Ryan Fitzpatrick, New York Jets

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

It might be tempting to start Ryan Fitzpatrick at home against the New England Patriots. After all, he's accumulated 24 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games and posted 19 points against the Pats in Week 7.

But since that game, the Pats have allowed 19 or more fantasy points to an opposing quarterback just once while holding quarterbacks to 12 or fewer fantasy points seven times.

Most folks probably didn't draft Fitzpatrick, so it's likely you have another solid quarterback option if you've been relying on him in recent weeks. In a championship game, relying on Fitzpatrick in this matchup is too risky.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projected Points
1	Doug Martin, TB	CHI	20
2	Adrian Peterson, MIN	NYG	18
3	Devonta Freeman, ATL	CAR	17
4	Darren McFadden, DAL	BUF	16
5	Chris Ivory, NYJ	NE	15
6	Matt Forte, CHI	TB	15
7	DeAngelo Williams, PIT	BAL	15
8	Tim Hightower, NO	JAC	14
9	Charcandrick West, KC	CLE	12
10	Todd Gurley, STL	SEA	10

Start 'Em: Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams

Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images

I desperately wanted to tell people to sit Todd Gurley this week. After all, he faces a Seattle defense giving up just 10.1 fantasy points to opposing running backs per week, tops in the NFL, and a defense that hasn't allowed 70 rushing yards in the past five weeks. 

Meanwhile, Gurley has failed to reach 50 rushing yards in three of his last four games. Everything was in place to advise folks to sit him.

But, at the running back position, I know you can't sit Gurley. You just can't. Gurley has 10 or more fantasy points in nine of his last 11 games, and he's an elite option at a position that has been decimated with injuries this season. 

In a stronger year for running backs, Gurley may be a "sit 'em" option this week. But this year, you cannot take the chance. Start Gurley and hope for the best. 

Sit 'Em: Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers

Ryan Kang/Associated Press

Coming into Week 15, it seemed like Eddie Lacy was back. He had scored 10 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games and was coming off a 124-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Dallas Cowboys.

And then last week, he managed just 11 rushes for 23 yards against the Oakland Raiders. 

Now, a beat-up Lacy faces an Arizona defense that has allowed just 12.7 fantasy points per week to opposing running backs, sixth-best in the NFL. Lacy was limited in practice throughout the week and has been arguably fantasy's biggest bust this season. Trusting him in championship week is unwise.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projected Points
1	Antonio Brown, PIT	BAL	20
2	DeAndre Hopkins, HOU	TEN	18
3	Allen Robinson, JAC	NO	17
4	Brandon Marshall, NYJ	NE	17
5	DeSean Jackson, WAS	PHI	16
6	Mike Evans, TB	CHI	15
7	Julio Jones, ATL	CAR	15
8	Eric Decker, NYJ	NE	13
9	Doug Baldwin, SEA	STL	13
10	Demaryius Thomas, DEN	CIN	12

Start 'Em: Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

Outside of Antonio Brown, Doug Baldwin is the hottest wideout in fantasy football at the moment. He has 10 receiving touchdowns in his last four games and is averaging a whopping 20 points per game in his last six contests. 

He's certainly been a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners and for football fans in general.

"You have a year like this, and everybody's like, 'Oh, where did this guy Doug Baldwin come from?'" teammate Richard Sherman said of Baldwin's breakout campaign, per Sheil Kapadia of ESPN. "He didn't come from anywhere. He's been there. He's been this guy. He's just getting the opportunities. He's getting his chance to shine like he's always had the ability to."

Fantasy owners are certainly enjoying the fact that Baldwin is fully grasping his moment to shine.

So ignore the fact that the St. Louis Rams are currently sixth in fantasy points allowed to opposing wideouts this season. The Rams have given up 23 or more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in the past four weeks, so they aren't immune to giving up big performances. 

Baldwin is a must-start option at this point. Expect the good times to continue to roll against St. Louis.

Sit 'Em: Tavon Austin, St. Louis Rams

Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images

Whereas I think you have to start Gurley against Seattle's excellent defense, I'd advise sitting the explosive but inconsistent Tavon Austin.

Yes, he notched 13 fantasy points in Week 1 against Seattle. But those points came on a punt return and a rushing touchdown, and he ultimately only managed 15 yards from scrimmage. And Seattle's defense is playing much better football down the stretch than it was early in the season. 

Austin's production is erratic, to say the least. He's an all (five weeks with 13 or more fantasy points) or nothing (five weeks with five points or fewer) option most games. Against Seattle, the "nothing" outcome seems more likely.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projected Points
1	Rob Gronkowski, NE	NYJ	15
2	Greg Olsen, CAR	ATL	13
3	Jordan Reed, WAS	PHI	12
4	Julius Thomas, JAC	NO	12
5	Gary Barnidge, CLE	KC	11
6	Benjamin Watson, NO	JAC	10
7	Delanie Walker, TEN	HOU	9
8	Travis Kelce, KC	CLE	8
9	Zach Ertz, PHI	WAS	7
10	Richard Rodgers, GB	ARI	6

Start 'Em: Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

Elsa/Getty Images

It's taken Zach Ertz the better part of the season, but he's finally playing like the TE1 many people expected him to be this season. 

In the last two weeks, Ertz has notched 13 receptions for 176 yards and a touchdown. He seems to have finally established a rapport with Sam Bradford and has been emphasized more in the passing game. The natural ability has always been there, but now the usage is matching the upside. 

At a pretty thin position, Ertz is worth the start. 

Sit 'Em: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

In his three games since returning from injury, Austin Seferian-Jenkins has caught just nine passes for 91 yards and a touchdown. He hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire, disappointing owners who took a chance on adding him late in the season.

Don't expect that to change against a Chicago Bears defense that has given up just three touchdowns to tight ends this season. Mike Evans is the player in the passing game that should post huge numbers this week for Tampa Bay, not Seferian-Jenkins.

Defense/Special Teams

Rank	Team	Opponent	Projected Points
1	KC	CLE	15
2	SEA	STL	13
3	DEN	CIN	11
4	CAR	ATL	10
5	HOU	TEN	10
6	CIN	DEN	9
7	PIT	BAL	9
8	MIN	NYG	9
9	NE	NYJ	7
10	ARI	GB	7

At this point in the season, you really shouldn't be getting too cute with your defenses.

No, you probably don't want to start the Jets against the Patriots. On the other hand, I'd be less wary of starting the Cardinals at home against a Green Bay offense that hasn't exactly been terrifying of late. And the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals are viable starts with each team starting backup quarterbacks. 

At this point, you probably have a defense you trust. Stick with it. Getting too cute in the championship round is an easy way to give up points.

Kickers

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projected Points
1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE	NYJ	15
2	Graham Gano, CAR	ATL	13
3	Chandler Catanzaro, ARI	GB	12
4	Cairo Santos, KC	CLE	12
5	Josh Brown, NYG	MIN	11
6	Steven Hauschka, SEA	STL	11
7	Dan Bailey, DAL	BUF	10
8	Brandon McManus, DEN	CIN	10
9	Robbie Gould, CHI	TB	9
10	Blair Walsh, MIN	NYG	9

See above. Much like your defense, you shouldn't be overthinking kicker. You likely have a player you trust at the position. Start him.

All fantasy stats, ownership percentages and points-against totals via ESPN standard leagues.