Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cincinnati Bengals (11-3) can clinch the AFC North title and earn a first-round bye in the playoffs with a victory against the Denver Broncos (10-4) in the Monday night matchup. The Bengals have lost eight in a row on the road versus the Broncos, but they are 6-1 straight up and 7-0 against the spread in their last seven away from home overall. The Broncos are just 1-4 ATS in their past five as favorites and can also clinch a playoff berth with a win over Cincinnati.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 42 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.4-16.6 Broncos

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals not only have performed extremely well away from home, but they also upset Denver 37-28 as 3.5-point home underdogs in Week 15 last year. In that game, Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning threw a season-high four interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown in the final minutes to seal the victory.

Defensively, Cincinnati should be able to put pressure on Manning’s replacement Brock Osweiler, who has struggled in the last two games after winning his first three starts. Osweiler is also dealing with a shoulder injury and could be a hit or two away from leaving the game, which could be trouble since Manning is still not ready to return.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Regardless of his recent play, Osweiler has four more starts under his belt than Bengals quarterback A.J. McCarron, who has looked shaky at best since taking over under center for the injured Andy Dalton. While McCarron was fairly efficient in a 24-14 road win against the San Francisco 49ers last week, he only threw for 192 yards and got the ball to All-Pro wide receiver A.J. Green only one time.

Green was held without a catch in last year’s meeting, and it is hard to imagine Cincinnati staying competitive here if that somehow happens again. Denver will also be a much more hostile environment than Santa Clara was last week for McCarron, as he could see a repeat of his two-interception performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers from two weeks ago when he relieved Dalton after he got hurt in that game.

Smart pick

This is a huge game for both teams and will probably come down to quarterback play and how each of them deal with the opposing defense. Osweiler has more experience in this spot and will have the added benefit of playing on his home field, something that obviously was not the case last week at Pittsburgh. He still had a solid game despite losing to the Steelers and will bounce back as the Broncos win and cover the spread.

Betting trends

The Bengals are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in their last seven games on the road.

The Broncos are 20-8 SU in their last 28 games.

The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.